Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications

Summary.  Risk is at the centre of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning countermeasures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers daily and the risk of infection has actuarial and epidemiological consequences. However, risk cannot be observed directly and it usually varies over time. We introduce a general multivariate time series model for the analysis of risk based on latent processes for the exposure to an event, the risk of that event occurring and the severity of the event. Linear state space methods can be used for the statistical treatment of the model. The new framework is illustrated for time series of insurance claims, credit card purchases and road safety. It is shown that the general methodology can be effectively used in the assessment of risk.     

Thinking possibilistically in a probabilistic world

We cannot live on the knife edge of disaster all the time. We cannot even think about disastrous extremes with any clarity, says Lee Clarke . For 300 years we have equated thinking probabilistically with thinking rationally, but is that enough for thinking about terrorism, air crashes—or even God?     

Flexible SWAps for Strategic Policy‐making: Reflections on the Zambian Experience

This article offers an alternative view on the emergence of new forms of development co‐operation by analysing the emergence of SWAps in Zambia since the early 1990s. SWAps in Zambia emerged not as part of a grand design but in response to the changing environment in which aid agencies were operating. An examination of the relative success of the health and education SWAps and the spectacular failure of the agriculture SWAp suggests that a flexible approach is more effective than the imposition of a planning template. Furthermore, the failure of the agricultural SWAp has been followed by significant new forms of public/private partnership.     

Homosexual role separation: Implications for analyzing and modeling the spread of HIV

The analysis of the spread of HIV in homosexual populations must be based on knowledge of all factors which promote or inhibit transmission. Recently, data were reported from the Amsterdam cohort study that imply that sexual role separation and the changes therein should be taken into account in analyzing and modeling the spread of HIV. In this paper, a role separation mixing model is described and linked to data from the Amsterdam cohort. The model allows one to study the impact of homosexual role separation on the spread of HIV. The homosexual men are classified into four sexual subgroups based on the preference for: 1) no anal intercourse; 2) anal insertive only; 3) anal receptive only; 4) both insertive and receptive. The analysis accounts for variability and change in homosexual role behavior and loss to follow up. The results support the conjecture that there are large differences between the risks of receptive and insertive anal intercourse, with the latter carrying only minimal risk. The analysis indicates that the spread of HIV is mostly restricted to subgroup 4, the largest and sexually most active subgroup. In this subgroup, the estimated probability of HIV transmission from an infected insertive partner (in subgroup 2 or 4) to a receptive susceptible (in subgroup 4) is between 1 and 5 percent (assuming a closed cohort).     

Technoscientia est Potentia?

Within the realm of nano-, bio-, info- and cogno- (or NBIC) technosciences, the ??power to change the world?? is often invoked. One could dismiss such formulations as ??purely rhetorical??, interpret them as rhetorical and self-fulfilling or view them as an adequate depiction of one of the fundamental characteristics of technoscience. In the latter case, a very specific nexus between science and technology, or, the epistemic and the constructionist realm is envisioned. The following paper focuses on this nexus drawing on theoretical conceptions as well as empirical material. It presents an overview of different technoscientific ways to ??change the world????via contemplation and representation, intervention and control, engineering, construction and creation. It further argues that the hybrid character of technoscience makes it difficult (if not impossible) to separate knowledge production from real world interventions and challenges current science and technology policy approaches in fundamental ways.     

Safety culture: under-specified and overrated?

Is the measurement of 'safety culture' a valid management tool in the effort to reduce accident rate and improve safety performance, or is it a fuzzy academic concept, lacking empirical validation? The answer to this question seems to depend on whom one asks. The UK Health and Safety Commission has encouraged companies to improve their safety performance through the development of a 'positive safety culture'. However, academic discussions in this area suggest that the concept remains vague, lacks empirical validation and is used as an 'umbrella term' for all the social and organizational factors that affect accident rate. This paper reviews the existing literature on safety culture and provides some clarification in terms of definition, empirical evidence and theoretical development. A theoretical framework of the mechanisms by which safety culture affects safety behaviours in organizations is proposed. The implications for practical management issues are discussed and future challenges and areas for further research are identified.     

«Land of East Wind»: mise en forme d'une mémoire mi'gmaq*

This essay follows from an historical study of Heron Island (Baie des Chaleurs), and in particular, the relationship between the island and the members, past and present, of the Eel River Bar Band, from the reserve of the same name. It aims to explore elements brought to light through my observation of members of the band, and notably the processes by which the latter strive to fashion a renewed connection with Heron Island; that is, to Self and to the world. Purposefully multidisciplinary, this study focusses on the representation/construction of space and on the manner in which it acts upon its derivatives in the form of collective memory and identity. Situated at the intersection of the symbolic and material realms, this essay endeavours to shed light on the formation of the narratives that, in this instance, constitute the production (mise en scene) of a perspective space of symbolization and social objectification—a process articulated on the enunciation of goals related to socio‐economic development and autonomy. At the same time, it is an attempt to account for a number of correlates to discourse, particularly practices related to social reconfiguration and the exercise of power, in a context marked by a quest for self‐determination and revitalism. In short, it is an examination of a case of resistance and accommodation by a small indigenous group seeking a new world‐vision. Le présent essai découle d'une étude historique portant sur l'île au Héron (Baie‐des‐Chaleurs) et en particulier sur les liens qui s'éta‐blissent entre celle‐ci et les membres, passés et présents, de la bande Eel River Bar, de la réserve du même nom. Il vise à explorer les éléments mis en relief par des observations faites dans le cadre de mes relations avec des membres de la bande, notamment les processus de l'élaboration d'un rapport renouveléà l'île au Héron, c'est‐à‐dire au Soi et au monde. Résolument multidisciplinaire, c'est une étude de cas qui porte sur la représentation/construction de l'espace et sur la façon dont celle‐ci influe sur la mémoire collective et sur l'identité qui en dérive. Sis à l'intersection de l'univers symbolique et de l'univers matériel, cet essai cherche à mettre au jour la formation des récits qui, dans ce cas, constituent la mise en scène d'un espace perspectif de symbolisation et d'objectivation sociale, un processus articulé sur l'énonciation de desseins de développement socio‐économique et d'autonomie. Parallèlement, il s'attache àéclairer les pratiques corrélatives au discursif, qui se nomment reconfiguration sociale et déploiement du pouvoir, dans un contexte de prise en main et de velléités revitalistes. En somme, il s'agit d'examiner un cas de résistance et d'accommodement de la part d'un groupe autochtone de petite taille, en mal de vision‐monde.