Scoring predictions at extreme quantiles

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - Prediction of quantiles at extreme tails is of interest in numerous applications. Extreme value modelling provides various competing predictors for this...     

Toward Disaster‐Resilient Cities: Characterizing Resilience of Infrastructure Systems with Expert Judgments

Resilient infrastructure systems are essential for cities to withstand and rapidly recover from natural and human‐induced disasters, yet electric power, transportation, and other infrastructures are highly vulnerable and interdependent. New approaches for characterizing the resilience of sets of infrastructure systems are urgently needed, at community and regional scales. This article develops a practical approach for analysts to characterize a community's infrastructure vulnerability and resilience in disasters. It addresses key challenges of incomplete incentives, partial information, and few opportunities for learning. The approach is demonstrated for Metro Vancouver, Canada, in the context of earthquake and flood risk. The methodological approach is practical and focuses on potential disruptions to infrastructure services. In spirit, it resembles probability elicitation with multiple experts; however, it elicits disruption and recovery over time, rather than uncertainties regarding system function at a given point in time. It develops information on regional infrastructure risk and engages infrastructure organizations in the process. Information sharing, iteration, and learning among the participants provide the basis for more informed estimates of infrastructure system robustness and recovery that incorporate the potential for interdependent failures after an extreme event. Results demonstrate the vital importance of cross‐sectoral communication to develop shared understanding of regional infrastructure disruption in disasters. For Vancouver, specific results indicate that in a hypothetical M7.3 earthquake, virtually all infrastructures would suffer severe disruption of service in the immediate aftermath, with many experiencing moderate disruption two weeks afterward. Electric power, land transportation, and telecommunications are identified as core infrastructure sectors.     

Developing Effectiveness in the Therapeutic Use of Self

Traditional technique guided the effective psychotherapist more toward restraint of self than active use of self. Contemporary trends in technique are moving more toward encouraging the therapist to be aware of and use his or her real self in the relationship with clients, in other words to loosen the rigors of anonymity and neutrality in service of genuine relating and its attendant growth-enhancing potential. The authors of this paper offer the argument that the application of what you know as a psychotherapist (that is the accumulation of knowledge and techniques from professional education and training) can only be helpful and effective if you are aware of how who you are as a person in the room with the client (that is the accumulation of your own personality traits, personal belief systems, and psychology in the relational matrix with the client) is influencing the therapy. Support for this argument from the clinical literature provides the theoretical bases for three processes outlined in the paper which will guide the effective psychotherapist in integrating the personal self with the professional and technical self: 1) inventory of self; 2) development of self-knowledge; and 3) acceptance of risks to self.     

Classification into two normal populations with a common mean and unequal variances

The problem of classification into two univariate normal populations with a common mean is considered. Several classification rules are proposed based on efficient estimators of the common mean. Detailed numerical comparisons of probabilities of misclassifications using these rules have been carried out. It is shown that the classification rule based on the Graybill-Deal estimator of the common mean performs the best. Classification rules are also proposed for the case when variances are assumed to be ordered. Comparison of these rules with the rule based on the Graybill-Deal estimator has been done with respect to individual probabilities of misclassification.     

Crime in the Movies: Investigating the Efficacy of Measures of Both Sex and Gender for Predicting Victimization and Offending in Film

In the wake of several recent school shootings claims have been made that teens, particularly males, learn violence from the media. This paper investigates depictions of criminals and victims in film, specifically in reference to the gendered nature of violent crime, utilizing a content analysis of popular domestic movies in 1996. We develop a gender measure that is separate and distinct from sex in order to test the relationship between both variables and movie offending and victimization. In our sample, masculinity was significantly related to both movie offending and victimization, but sex was not. This pattern of results indicate that the media may be influential in establishing values that accept violence as one means to accomplish masculinity.     

Leadership in Voluntary Associations: The Case of the “International Association of Women”

Three models of leadership in voluntary associations have been proposed in the literature: democratic leadership, oligarchy, and leadership by default. Through an intensive case study of leadership structure, differences in the attitudes of members and leaders at three hierarchical levels, and differences between the attitudes and behaviors of aspirants and nonaspirants to leadership in a women's service association, this article examines the degree of fit between these models and a specific organization. Data is drawn from questionnaires, annual reports, and interviews. The results fail to conform to any of the existing models, suggesting instead a fourth model, leadership for self-development—in which leaders are motivated primarily by a desire to develop administrative and interpersonal skills.     

Strategic Mobsters or Deprived Migrants? Testing the Transplantation and Deprivation Models of Organized Crime in an Effort to Understand Criminal Mobility and Diversity in the United States

The aim of this research is to study the emergence and mobility of organized crime in the United States. Focusing on Albanian organized crime in New York City, it investigates whether organized crime groups move abroad easily and reproduce their territorial control in a foreign country. This research explores the relevance of two perspectives on organized crime: the transplantation/importation model, and the deprivation model. Findings are based on analysis of court documents, interviews with law enforcement officials, Albanian immigrants, and Albanian offenders. The study did not find strong support for either the transplantation or the deprivation model of organized crime. There is no evidence of strategic organized crime transplantation. The findings suggest that the mobility of organized crime groups is functional and varies across criminal markets, and that not only economic foundations but also social forces and symbolic rewards of criminal migration need to be examined for better government policies.     

Circadian rhythm of hot flashes and activity levels among prostate cancer patients on androgen deprivation therapy

Abstract

Background: Modifiable risk factors contribute to the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and erectile dysfunction (ED). We aimed to compare the knowledge about the contribution of modifiable risk factors to the pathogenesis of CVD and ED. The impact of patients’ having modifiable risk factors on the awareness of their negative influence on the development of CVD and ED was examined.

Methods: To this multicenter cohort study, we included 417 patients with CHD who had been hospitalized in the cardiology or cardiac surgery department during the previous six weeks and underwent cardiac rehabilitation in one of the five centers. Knowledge about modifiable risk factors was collected. ED was assessed by an abridged IIEF-5 questionnaire. Comparisons between groups were conducted using the Student’s t-test, Mann–Whitney U test, and Kruskal–Wallis test. Relationships were analyzed with Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.

Results: The mean number of correctly identified risk factors for CVD was significantly higher than those for ED (3.71?±?1.87 vs. 2.00?±?1.94; p?<?.0001). Smoking was the most recognized risk factor both for CVD and ED. Dyslipidemia was least frequently identified as a risk factor for CVD. Sedentary lifestyle was the only risk factor whose incidence did not affect the level of patient knowledge.

Conclusions: Cardiac patients with ED know more about risk factors for CVD than ED. It is necessary to include information about the negative impact of modifiable risk factors on sexual health into education programs promoting healthy lifestyles in men with cardiovascular diseases.     

Bayes estimation for exponential distributions with common location parameter and applications to multi-state reliability models

This paper considers the estimation of the stress–strength reliability of a multi-state component or of a multi-state system where its states depend on the ratio of the strength and stress variables through a kernel function. The article presents a Bayesian approach assuming the stress and strength as exponentially distributed with a common location parameter but different scale parameters. We show that the limits of the Bayes estimators of both location and scale parameters under suitable priors are the maximum likelihood estimators as given by Ghosh and Razmpour [15 M. Ghosh and A. Razmpour, Estimation of the common location parameter of several exponentials, Sankhyā, Ser. A 46 (1984), pp. 383–394. [Google Scholar]]. We use the Bayes estimators to determine the multi-state stress–strength reliability of a system having states between 0 and 1. We derive the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimators of the reliability function. Interval estimation using the bootstrap method is also considered. Under the squared error loss function and linex loss function, risk comparison of the reliability estimators is carried out using extensive simulations.