Extreme-value analysis of canadian wind speeds

Estimates of extreme winds are essential for engineering design, but in preparing such estimates major statistical issues are encountered. In this case study, the analysts were provided with hourly readings on wind speed, wind direction, and barometric pressure at five Canadian stations for observation periods ranging over several recent decades. Their assignment was to calculate point and interval estimates of 10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-year return values (i.e., upper fractiles) for the wind speeds at these stations.     

Prediction and Prevention of Child Abuse and Neglect

A high-risk population was successfully identified by the use of perinatal screening procedures. These children encountered significantly different parenting practices than the low-risk "control" group. There were also significant differences between "High-Risk" and "Low-Risk" families on issues concerning social adjustment and mother/infant attachment. Five children in a "High-Risk Nonintervene" group required hospitalization for serious injuries thought to be secondary to abnormal parenting practices. There were no such hospitalizations in either a High Risk Intervene group or a Low Risk group. Labordelivery observations, and postpartum interviews and observations provided the most accurate predictive information; prenatal interviews and questionnaires did not add significantly. Perinatal assessment and simple intervention with families at high risk for abnormal parenting practices significantly improves the infants' chances for escaping serious hospitalized physical injury.     

Successful joint ventures in Science Parks

Technology-based firms are looking for ways of minimizing the increasing risks and costs of developing new products and processes. Acquisition of new technology through a collaborative development is one way which is finding favour. Universities, their associated Science Parks and spinout companies offer opportunities for such partnerships which are growing in importance. The services available by this route to large companies are attracting a substantial international clientele.     

Continuity of Midwifery Care in England: A New Professional Project?

Over the last decade, an increasing amount of research has examined the relationship between gender and professionalization using female professional projects to illustrate how the generic notion of a profession has been a gendered one. This paper develops Witz's (1990) theory of professional strategies in female-dominated occupations particularly regarding midwives in Britain in the twentieth century and suggests that an important dimension that also needs to be critically examined in midwifery history is the interaction of gender and social class within midwifery. Furthermore it documents the traditional emphasis in midwifery on the single woman's career path. This historical analysis has resonance today as midwifery in Britain is undergoing a renaissance. The role of the midwife and the current organization of the maternity services are being reviewed with the intention of providing increased choice and control over the reproductive process for women and increased continuity of care with a midwife. These changes are viewed as midwives' new professional project and the implications for midwives and women discussed. The aim of this paper is to explore the explanatory power of these approaches to current developments in maternity care and by drawing historical parallels, consider the impact that this professionalizing strategy may have for those who are excluded from this process of ‘dual closure’. Furthermore, this paper asks whether this new way of working empowers midwives, women, both or neither?     

New Public Management Is Dead--Long Live Digital-Era Governance

The "new public management" (NPM) wave in public sector organizationalchange was founded on themes of disaggregation, competition,and incentivization. Although its effects are still workingthrough in countries new to NPM, this wave has now largely stalledor been reversed in some key "leading-edge" countries. Thisebbing chiefly reflects the cumulation of adverse indirect effectson citizens' capacities for solving social problems becauseNPM has radically increased institutional and policy complexity.The character of the post-NPM regime is currently being formed.We set out the case that a range of connected and informationtechnology–centered changes will be critical for the currentand next wave of change, and we focus on themes of reintegration,needs-based holism, and digitization changes. The overall movementincorporating these new shifts is toward "digital-era governance"(DEG), which involves reintegrating functions into the governmentalsphere, adopting holistic and needs-oriented structures, andprogressing digitalization of administrative processes. DEGoffers a perhaps unique opportunity to create self-sustainingchange, in a broad range of closely connected technological,organizational, cultural, and social effects. But there arealternative scenarios as to how far DEG will be recognized asa coherent phenomenon and implemented successfully.     

A unified approach to multilevel sample selection models

Abstract

We propose a unified approach for multilevel sample selection models using a generalized result on skew distributions arising from selection. If the underlying distributional assumption is normal, then the resulting density for the outcome is the continuous component of the sample selection density and has links with the closed skew-normal distribution (CSN). The CSN distribution provides a framework which simplifies the derivation of the conditional expectation of the observed data. This generalizes the Heckman’s two-step method to a multilevel sample selection model. Finite-sample performance of the maximum likelihood estimator of this model is studied through a Monte Carlo simulation.     

A Semiparametric Bayesian Model for Circular-Linear Regression

Circular data are observations that are represented as points on a unit circle. Times of day and directions of wind are two such examples. In this work, we present a Bayesian approach to regress a circular variable on a linear predictor. The regression coefficients are assumed to have a nonparametric distribution with a Dirichlet process prior. The semiparametric Bayesian approach gives added flexibility to the model and is useful especially when the likelihood surface is ill behaved. Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are used to fit the proposed model and to generate predictions. The method is illustrated using an environmental data set.