Forecasting mortality rates via density ratio modeling

The authors propose a semiparametric approach to modeling and forecasting age‐specific mortality in the United States. Their method is based on an extension of a class of semiparametric models to time series. It combines information from several time series and estimates the predictive distribution conditional on past data. The conditional expectation, which is the most commonly used predictor in practice, is the first moment of this distribution. The authors compare their method to that of Lee and Carter.     

Applying anticipatory and relational perspectives to the Nigerian delta region oil crisis

This paper addresses crisis communication shortcomings of oil companies working in the Nigerian delta region. The anticipatory model of crisis communication is blended with the public relations relational perspective to demonstrate how oil companies have responded to crises in the delta region in a manner contrary to what would be consistent with these perspectives. The result has been persistent turmoil in the region and significant distrust of the organizations.     

Social Work Education and Clinical Learning

In response to a growing diversity of opinion regarding educational models and essential content in clinical social work education, this paper offers a perspective concerning graduate clinical curricula. Part I, the foundational piece of the paper, discusses the definition of clinical social work, social work’s core orientation and values, and influential contextual issues. The interrelated core orientations guiding knowledge and skill development are identified as the person-in-situation perspective and the concept of relationship. Based on this foundation, Part II identifies elements of a contemporary biopsychosocial knowledge base and essential clinical skills. This paper is intended to stimulate dialogue about a topic of importance to the profession and the clients it serves.     

GREAT MEN AND HARD TIMES: SOCIOLOGY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA

Sociology at the University of Minnesota has had a long and distinguished history. From its founding in 1910 many prominent sociologists have taught and have graduated from the department. We present an overview of the growth of the department, and certain influential events which affected the direction of department governance and intellectual development. The department achieved its "Golden Age" under the leadership of F. Stuart Chapin, who chaired the department for nearly three decades (1922–1951). We speculate about the internal and external pressures that have affected the Minnesota department-and other sociology departments-over the past two decades, during its period of greatest expansion but of significant tensions as well.     

Gendered Power and Privilege: Taking Lenski One Step Further

In Power and Privilege , Gerhard Lenski's theory of the evolution of systems of inequality, he showed some recognition of gender inequality but, as universally accepted in sociology at the time, "social" stratification was conceptualized implicitly as inequality between male household heads. To move from this to explaining gender inequality requires consideration of constructs in addition to those developed by Lenski, but in terms of his typology of societies based on technology and size of economic surplus, the level of gender stratification tracks that of "social" stratification and the basic variables he delineates remain centrally important.     

CONDITIONAL INFERENCE ABOUT AN EQUICORRELATION COEFFICIENT

SenGupta (1987) proposed a locally most powerful test which is globally (one sided) unbiased, and an estimator of p, the equicorrelation coefficient of a standard symmetric multivariate normal (SSMN) distribution. Here we use the idea in Williams (1984) to illustrate the construction and use of ancillary statistics to make inference about p. The test and confidence intervals based on this construction are conditionally optimal.     

The Johnson Typologies of Intimate Partner Violence: An Investigation of Their Representation in a General Population of New Zealand Women

Typologies of intimate partner violence (IPV) can inform practice and aid with the development of interventions. To maintain utility, typologies should be constantly reviewed in light of emerging results generated from internal and external validation. The presented study is an empirical exploration of the M. P. Johnson (2008 Johnson, M. P. (2008). A typology of domestic violence: Intimate terrorism, violent resistance, and situational couple violence. Boston, MA: Northeastern University Press. [Google Scholar]) typology of IPV using data gathered from the New Zealand replication of the World Health Organization Violence Against Women survey. We could not identify all types of IPV described by Johnson, and we suggest that mutually exclusive types of violent relationships do not exist. Further exploration of the validity of the Johnson typologies, including an exploration of the utility of categorization for suggesting appropriate responses to IPV, is required.     

Self-enhancement of Peer Acceptance: Implications for Children's Self-worth and Interpersonal Functioning

Changes in feelings of self‐worth and peer acceptance associated with self‐enhancing perceptions of their peer acceptance were examined for a normative sample and for a group of peer‐rejected children. Whether the correlates of self‐enhancement differed as a function of the way in which perceptions were assessed (i.e., general versus specific measures of self‐enhancement) or by the degree of enhancement were also studied. Using a longitudinal design, 670 students in grades 3 through 5 were assessed across an academic year. For the normative sample, general self‐enhancement of peer acceptance was associated with positive outcomes; specific self‐enhancement of peer acceptance was unrelated to changes in outcomes. Both general and specific self‐enhancement scores were associated with gains in one or more outcome measures in the rejected group. No support was found for the hypothesis that mild to moderate self‐enhancement is predictive of adjustment whereas extreme self‐enhancement is related to maladjustment.     

Does Privatization Protect Natural Resources? Property Rights and Forests in Guatemala

Objectives . Property rights are central to debates about natural resource policy. Governments traditionally have been seen as the appropriate custodians of natural resources for their citizens. More recently, many argue the privatization of property rights will ensure that users have incentives to manage their resources well. Common property, to the extent it is discussed at all, is seen as leading to the tragedy of the commons. We evaluate these claims by assessing property rights and forest conditions in two private and three communal forests in Guatemala. Methods . Data on biological and social phenomena from five forests (151 plots) and their associated communities were collected using the International Forestry Resources and Institutions Research Program protocols. Ordinary least squares regression was used to analyze four models. We examined t -scores for differences in coefficients for the different models. Results . The models demonstrate that de jure property rights are not a powerful predictor of variations among the sampled forests. Conclusions . We argue that de facto institutions and their enforcement are much more important than de jure property rights to forest management. Communities holding a forest in common can, under certain circumstances, create institutions to manage their resources as successfully as—or more successfully than—private owners.