Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

Bayesian model selection for join point regression with application to age-adjusted cancer rates

Summary.  The method of Bayesian model selection for join point regression models is developed. Given a set of K +1 join point models M ₀,  M ₁, …,  M _K with 0, 1, …,  K join points respec-tively, the posterior distributions of the parameters and competing models M _k are computed by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayes information criterion BIC is used to select the model M _k with the smallest value of BIC as the best model. Another approach based on the Bayes factor selects the model M _k with the largest posterior probability as the best model when the prior distribution of M _k is discrete uniform. Both methods are applied to analyse the observed US cancer incidence rates for some selected cancer sites. The graphs of the join point models fitted to the data are produced by using the methods proposed and compared with the method of Kim and co-workers that is based on a series of permutation tests. The analyses show that the Bayes factor is sensitive to the prior specification of the variance σ ², and that the model which is selected by BIC fits the data as well as the model that is selected by the permutation test and has the advantage of producing the posterior distribution for the join points. The Bayesian join point model and model selection method that are presented here will be integrated in the National Cancer Institute's join point software ( http://www.srab.cancer.gov/joinpoint/ ) and will be available to the public.     

Reports of Conferences, Institutes, and Seminars

Reports on the 2005 North Carolina Serials Conference, the twentieth anniversary conference of the North American Serials Interest Group, the 2005 Acquisitions Institute at Timberline Lodge, and a program on electronic archiving sponsored by the New England Chapter of the Association of College and Research Libraries.     

Stalking perpetrators and psychological maltreatment of partners: anger-jealousy, attachment insecurity, need for control, and break-up context

Two studies of the correlates of self-reported courtship persistence, stalking-like behaviors following a relationship break-up, and psychological maltreatment of partners were conducted in samples of male (N = 46 and 93) and female (N = 123 and 110) college students. Approximately 40% (38.5% and 44.6%) engaged in at least one stalking behavior following a break-up. A total of 10.7% (study 1) and 7.6% (study 2) engaged in 6 or more stalking behaviors. Stalking was significantly related to psychological maltreatment of the partner (PMP) prior to the break-up. Being the recipient of the breakup was associated with feelings of anger, jealousy and obsessiveness and with higher levels of courtship persistence, and stalking. A replicated path model showed that anxious attachment and need for control were related to PMP and that need for control had a direct contribution to stalking. For anxious attachment, its connection to stalking was indirect, mediated by the degree of anger-jealousy over the break-up.     

Research on stalking: what do we know and where do we go?

Findings of the article in this two-volume series on stalking are reviewed. Building on the findings of the National Violence Against Women Survey (Tjaden & Thoennes, 1998), this series of studies adds to the literature in defining and measuring stalking behaviors. Repeated stalking victimization is reported by up to 62% of young adults, although frequencies depend on the sample and the precise definition used. Self-definitions of stalking victimization may be quite different from legal definitions. Although the majority of legally defined stalkers (where victim fear is a key component) are men stalking women, studies utilizing other definitions find many more women as stalkers, with no significant gender differences in many studies. In many cases, it does appear that stalking is one part of a larger pattern of relationship physical and psychological abuse. Data on emotional reactions and coping strategies of victims are also reviewed, along with findings on characteristics of stalkers.     

Some aspects of price strategy

A firm's success, within a rapidly growing and dynamic market, depends upon its ability to respond to market demand and to react to competitive forces. A key factor determining success is the pricing policy employed by the firm. Product pricing, however, is not simple; supply and demand, as well as the interaction and reaction of competitors, must be taken into consideration. By simulating a competitive market environment, however, a firm should be able to evaluate different pricing strategies prior to employing a strategy in practice. The goal of this research was to propose a simulation model to serve this purpose. Particularly, the objective was to demonstrate that if an industry can be characterized as one in which cost as well as price decline with cumulative volume, a pricing policy leading to market dominance exists. A simulation model is desirable for evaluating the proper pricing strategy for achieving such a market position.     

Physical and mental health effects of being stalked for men and women

Stalking is relatively common yet little is known of the longer-term health effects of stalking. Using the National Violence Against Women survey, we estimated lifetime stalking victimization among women and men, ages 18 to 65, identified correlates of being stalked, and explored the association between being stalked and mental and physical health status. With a criterion of being stalked on more than one occasion and being at least "somewhat afraid," 14.2% of women and 4.3% of men were victims. Among those stalked, 41% of women and 28% of men were stalked by an intimate partner. Women were more than 13 times as likely to be "very afraid" of their stalker than men. Negative health consequences of being stalked were similar for men and women; those stalked were significantly more likely to report poor current health, depression, injury, and substance use. Implications for victims, service providers, and the criminal justice system were reviewed.     

Gay youth and gay adults: bridging the generation gap

Recent discussion of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and trans (LGBT) youth has included two emphases: the burgeoning trend toward youth-supportive organizations and focus on risk factors experienced by these youth. In practice, the two are intertwined: the need for youth-supportive endeavors is typically demonstrated by appeals to the risks LGBT youth face. Relatively little attention has been given to relationships between youth and adults in LGBT communities. This article employs data from a long-term qualitative study with LGBT youth, supported by information from numerous other settings to suggest that a failure on the part of both groups fully to comprehend the experience of the other hampers the optimal functioning of everyone involved. In particular, we suggest that the discourse about the dangers faced by LGBT youth, despite its being thoroughly well-intentioned. may actually place these teens at greater risk.     

Rethinking twins and environments: possible social sources for assumed genetic influences in twin research

A central sociological problem is the extent to which genetics and the environment influence human behavior. Studies of twins are a core method in attempts to disentangle and to determine the comparative strength of genetic and environmental influences on psychosocial outcomes. A critical assumption of twin studies is that both monozygotic "identical" twins and dizygotic "fraternal" twins share common social environments. Therefore, any greater similarity of monozygotic than dizygotic twins is attributed to genetic influences. This paper tests the equal environment assumption by examining the extent to which greater concordance of adolescent monozygotic compared to dizygotic twins results from social, as well as genetic, influences. Bivariate comparisons indicate that monozygotic twins show greater similarity than dizygotic twins in socially-based characteristics including physical attractiveness, time spent in each other's company, the overlap in friendship networks, and friends' use of alcohol. Multivariate analyses indicate that measures of the social environment sometimes reduce or eliminate apparent genetic effects. In comparison with genetic indicators, social variables are usually stronger predictors of depression and alcohol use and abuse. These findings suggest that past twin studies could overstate the strength of genetic influences because some similarities in behavior among monozygotic compared to dizygotic twins stem from social influences.