Inside two commercially available statistical expert systems

A decade of research into the applications of artificial intelligence in statistics has finally resulted in the appearance of commercially available statistical expert systems. This paper takes a closer look at two of these systems, which are now commercially available on microcomputers, and shows what knowledge they actually contain and how they operate. It is concluded that although the technology and concepts that drive these systems could still benefit from further improvement, the real challenge lies in defining and constructing the statistical knowledge and strategy that should be incorporated and in presenting the results to the user's full advantage.     

An uncertain future: children of mentally ill parents.

Research reports the uncertain outcome of variables affecting the life of a child of an MI parent. Nurses must avoid stereotyping children before assessment; they are to be in the forefront in assessing self-care skills and deficits to guide planning individual interventions for children and MI parents. Long-term research theory-based interventions will enhance mental health in high-risk children and families.     

Four‐Month‐Olds' Discrimination of Voice Changes in Multimodal Displays as a Function of Discrimination Protocol

Past studies have found equivocal support for the ability of young infants to discriminate infant‐directed (ID) speech information in the presence of auditory‐only versus auditory + visual displays (faces + voices). Generally, younger infants appear to have more difficulty discriminating a change in the vocal properties of ID speech when they are accompanied by faces. Forty 4‐month‐old infants were tested using either an infant‐controlled habituation procedure (Experiment 1) or a fixed‐trial habituation procedure (Experiment 2). The prediction was that the infant‐controlled habituation procedure would be a more sensitive measure of infant attention to complex displays. The results indicated that 4‐month‐old infants discriminated voice changes in dynamic face + voice displays depending on the order in which they were viewed during the infant‐controlled habituation procedure. In contrast, no evidence of discrimination was found in the fixed‐trial procedure. The findings suggest that the selection of experimental methodology plays a significant role in the empirical observations of infant perceptual abilities.     

Triadic Interaction among Newly Acquainted 2-year-olds

Are children as young as 2 years old able to interact in groups of three? The study applied the family triad model first introduced by Parke, Power, and Gottman (1979 ) to the case of peer interaction. In Experiment 1 , the model was refined for use in studies of peer interaction and applied to an existing dataset of 16 triads of newly acquainted 24‐month‐olds. In Experiment 2 , the triadic coding system was further refined and applied to 12 single‐sex triads of newly acquainted 2‐year‐olds. The findings demonstrated that 2‐year‐olds are capable of triadic interaction although the predominant interaction pattern in triads is still dyadic. Contrary to past reports, triadic interaction was more likely to occur when the children were not in conflict. Both girls and boys were capable of triadic interaction.     

The estimation of Chilean mortality (1860-1940): limits and possibilities

The limitations and errors in data sources, primarily censuses and vital statistics, concerning mortality in Chile from 1865 to 1940 are examined. Solutions are offered to adjust the sources' underestimations, particularly with regard to infant mortality.     

Ordinal utility models of decision making under uncertainty

This paper studies two models of rational behavior under uncertainty whose predictions are invariant under ordinal transformations of utility. The quantile utility model assumes that the agent maximizes some quantile of the distribution of utility. The utility mass model assumes maximization of the probability of obtaining an outcome whose utility is higher than some fixed critical value. Both models satisfy weak stochastic dominance. Lexicographic refinements satisfy strong dominance.The study of these utility models suggests a significant generalization of traditional ideas of riskiness and risk preference. We define one action to be riskier than another if the utility distribution of the latter crosses that of the former from below. The single crossing property is equivalent to a minmax spread of a random variable. With relative risk defined by the single crossing criterion, the risk preference of a quantile utility maximizer increases with the utility distribution quantile that he maximizes. The risk preference of a utility mass maximizer increases with his critical utility value.     

The effects of the age and structure of population on family change]

The age structure of a population is one basic factor of population research. It is not only affected by birth, death, immigration, and marriage, but it also reflected in changes of family size. The article analyzed it from two aspects: (1) the age structure of population acts on the size and structure of the family. The younger the age structure, the larger the family size. Otherwise, it is the opposite. According to the 1982 census, 35.4% of the population was 0-14 years in rural areas, and average family size was 4.6; but in urban areas 26.0% of the population was 0-14 years and family size was 3.9. The family was characterized as a nuclear family as industrialization in economic development increased and the population aged. In the 1982 census, 64.7% were nuclear family and 6% were aging population in China. Three- generation families (or more) have decreased dramatically. The change of family size and structure is affected by change of internal family age structure. The younger population (0-14 years) is dependent and 90% live with their parents. The adult population (15-59) years are more affected by marriage, birth and social economic action. Families are established in this age period and give much more effect to fertility. The aging population (over 60) years is facing changes. They appear to be a "Defect" family because the wife or husband has passed away. They change from independent to dependent. 78.3% population over 60 years were dependent on children or social welfare, only 21.7% were independent according to the survey in Beijing Changping County.     

Evidence for a common dissociative-like reaction among addicts

A questionnaire was designed to test selected aspects of the author's General Theory of Addictions (Jacobs, 1982). Data were collected from groups of compulsive gamblers, alcoholics, and compulsive overeaters, and compared with the responses to the same questionnaire obtained from normative samples of adolescents and adults. The more inclusive term, compulsive gambler, has been used throughout, since the sample of gamblers in this study included an inpatient subgroup who had been diagnosed as pathological gamblers, as well as a subgroup of Gamblers Anonymous members who had not been clinically evaluated. Findings support the author's theoretical position that, when indulging, different kinds of addicts will tend to share a common set of dissociativelike experiences that differentiate them from nonaddicts. This has been termed a state of altered identity.     

The effect of a nutrition education programme on pregnant women attending Khartoum model clinic

A comparative study conducted in the Sudan illustrated both the potential of a nutrition education program for pregnant women and the many obstacles to creating more optimal maternal nutrition. Included in the study were 1200 women 18-34 years of age attending the Khartoum Province Model Clinic for a minimum of 5 prenatal visits. 83.3% were Muslims and 48.2% were illiterate. The 60 women who comprised the experimental group were exposed to individual nutrition counseling and home visits. Overall, 70% of subjects were anemic, 27% had malaria, and 18% were hookworm. The average weight gain during pregnancy was 4.5 kgs; 25.0% of controls and 20.0% of those in the experimental group gained 3.5-4.0 kgs, 18.3% of controls and 33.3% of experimental subjects gained 4.5-5.0 kgs, and 23.3% of controls and 30.0% of those in the experimental groups gained 5.5 kgs or more. 53.0% of controls and 61.7% of women exposed to nutrition education breastfed for at least 6 months, and 70% of women in the former group and 95% of those in the latter had enrolled their infants in an immunization program. A baseline nutrition questionnaire revealed widespread misinformation, especially a belief that pregnant women should reduce their food intake from 3 to 1-2 meals per day to prevent the fetus from growing too large and making labor difficult. Foods such as fermented sorghum products, fresh fish, and water melon were regarded as abortifacients and avoided, while hot pepper, sour milk, and cola sodas were considered nutritious. Consumption was self-reported to be poor for milk products by 25% of mothers, for meat by 16%, and for fruits and vegetables by 40% Although the educational intervention increased women's knowledge of basic nutrition, it had only a minimal effect on actual practice. This finding is assumed to reflect the widespread belief that men and their guests should be given preference in food allocation, poverty, and avoidance, on the basis of tradition, of many healthy foods. Since 72% of women reported ownership of a television, use if this medium is recommended for nutrition education.