Checking validity of monotone domain mean estimators

Estimates of population characteristics such as domain means are often expected to follow monotonicity assumptions. Recently, a method to adaptively pool neighbouring domains was proposed, which ensures that the resulting domain mean estimates follow monotone constraints. The method leads to asymptotically valid estimation and inference, and can lead to substantial improvements in efficiency, in comparison with unconstrained domain estimators. However, assuming incorrect shape constraints may lead to biased estimators. Here, we develop the Cone Information Criterion for Survey Data as a diagnostic method to measure monotonicity departures on population domain means. We show that the criterion leads to a consistent methodology that makes an asymptotically correct decision choosing between unconstrained and constrained domain mean estimators. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 315–331; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Fast and approximate exhaustive variable selection for generalised linear models with APES

We present APproximated Exhaustive Search (APES), which enables fast and approximated exhaustive variable selection in Generalised Linear Models (GLMs). While exhaustive variable selection remains as the gold standard in many model selection contexts, traditional exhaustive variable selection suffers from computational feasibility issues. More precisely, there is often a high cost associated with computing maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for all subsets of GLMs. Efficient algorithms for exhaustive searches exist for linear models, most notably the leaps‐and‐bound algorithm and, more recently, the mixed integer optimisation (MIO) algorithm. The APES method learns from observational weights in a generalised linear regression super‐model and reformulates the GLM problem as a linear regression problem. In this way, APES can approximate a true exhaustive search in the original GLM space. Where exhaustive variable selection is not computationally feasible, we propose a best‐subset search, which also closely approximates a true exhaustive search. APES is made available in both as a standalone R package as well as part of the already existing mplot package.     

“思想的无端骄傲”——评《中国思想史》第一卷

本文是对清华大学教授葛兆光新著《中国思想史》第一卷的学术评论。文章认为 ,葛先生“重写”思想史的基本路子即以论带史、以今视昔、以文领义 ,而“基本路子只有一条 ,一分为三 ,乃是方便说法”。事实上 ,思想史领域本来就别有洞天 ,“葛先生自许的突破之处 ,不过是划地为牢 ,然后纵身一跃 ,作突破状而已。”文章还批评了《中国思想史》中存在的理路不清、用词不当的一些“大议论”。本文作者总结道 :如果要我用一句话来评论这本书 ,我将说 :“在这本号称‘思想史’的书里 ,我看不到历史上的思想和知识 ,我只看到现在一位中国人葛兆光的‘思想’”。     

论科学发现中的非理性因素

本文探讨了科学发现过程中的非理性因素直觉、灵感,等等,它们在科学研究中往往起到十分重要的作用.文章阐述了灵感思维的突发性、非逻辑性等特点,以及机遇在加速科学发现进程中所起的作用.文章指出,研究环境尤其研究单位的学风、传统和学术水平等,对于科研的进程和成败起着极大的作用,并以诺贝尔奖得主的情况作了深入的讨论.     

试论企业技术创新激励与约束机制

由于缺乏有效的企业技术创新的激励机制和约束机制,致使相当部分国有企业缺乏创新的热情和责任,不能成为技术创新的主体,激励机制与约束机制是企业技术创新的动力机制,只有尽快建立相对完善的激励机制和约束机制,才能保证企业技术创新活动的健康发展.     

论国家主权与国际法的关系

国家主权与国际法的关系一直是国际法领域倍受关注的热门话题之一.为了正确辨析两者之间的关系,首先必须弄清主权的性质、主权与主权权利的不同概念及相互关系.笔者认为,主权权利区别于主权的特征在于,不仅其自身具有可分割或可让与性,而且可与主权相分离,甚至全部主权权利的不能行使也不构成对主权的否定.以此为基础,本文将主权与国际法的关系划分为两个层面,即国家主权与国际法相互依存的关系、国际法对主权权利的丰富、发展和限制的关系.     

民营企业文化管理的重构

民营企业文化管理重构,主要包括理念和制度两个方面.在理念上,要把民营企业的非理性的血缘、情缘文化理念,转变为现代企业的业缘、事缘理念;要用"以人为本"的现代管理理念,取代以"以工具为本"的陈旧理念;用注重灵魂塑造的理念,取代注重形式主义的有害理念;用注重长期培育的理念,取代追求短期见效的落后理念;用注重形成企业集体无意识的理念,取代注重企业细小行为规范的肤浅理念.在制度方面,民营企业要努力建构自己的文化意义符号管理制度,文化沟通网络管理制度,职场氛围管理制度,文化训练管理制度,文化遗传管理制度等.     

DURATION MODELS FOR CREDIT RATING MIGRATION: EVIDENCE FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

We introduce a specific duration model to analyze the prediction of the credit rating migration. We consider hazard rate processes based on multi‐state autoregressive conditional duration models. To take account of the economic context, we model the conditional mean of the duration between two ratings by means of a latent process. To this purpose, a dynamic‐ordered probit model is developed to describe the directions taken by the ratings in the presence of multiple states. As an illustration, we study the migration of credit rating during periods before and after the financial crisis. (JEL C14, C41, G24)     

Regular A-optimal design matrices X = (xij) with xij = ?1, 0, 1

New construction methods of the regular A-optimal design matrices with elements −1, 0, 1 are presented, under assumption of nonhomogeneity of variance error. The presented constructions are based on the incidence matrices of the balanced bipartite weighing designs.     

A Model of Quality of College Life (QCL) of Students in Korea

This study develops and tests a model of quality of college life (QCL) of students in Korea. In this study, QCL of students is conceptualized in terms of needs satisfaction and affect balance. It has been hypothesized that satisfaction with education services, administrative services, and facilities have a significant impact on QCL, which in turn positively influences identification, positive word of mouth, and overall quality of life. The results of a survey on 228 Korean college students largely support the model. Managerial and policy implications are discussed.