Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models: An Application to the Polish Credit Market

We propose a Bayesian approach for inference in a dynamic disequilibrium model. To circumvent the difficulties raised by the Maddala and Nelson (1974) specification in the dynamic case, we analyze a dynamic extended version of the disequilibrium model of Ginsburgh et al. (1980). We develop a Gibbs sampler based on the simulation of the missing observations. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated by an empirical analysis of the Polish credit market, for which we conduct a specification search using the posterior deviance criterion of Spiegelhalter et al. (2002).     

Tests of serial independence based on Kendall's process

The authors propose new rank statistics for testing the white noise hypothesis in a time series. These statistics are Cramér‐von Mises and Kolmogorov‐Smirnov functionals of an empirical distribution function whose mean is related to a serial version of Kendall's tau through a linear transform. The authors determine the asymptotic behaviour of the underlying serial process and the large‐sample distribution of the proposed statistics under the null hypothesis of white noise. They also present simulation results showing the power of their tests.     

FACILITATING INTIMACY: INTERVENTIONS AND EFFECTS

The Present study investigated by effects of two sets of marital interventions taken from Emotionally Focused Therapy (EFT) and Cognitive Marital Therapy (CMT) on level of marital intimacy, dyadic trust, and dyadic adjustment. It was hypothesized that both EFT and CMT would have a positive effect on levels of intimacy, trust, and adjustment as compared to a wait-list control group and that there would be a differential effect in favor of EFT as compared to CMT. Thirty-six couples free of marital distress and seeking to enhance theor intimate relationship were randomaly assigned to EFT, CMT, or a wai-list control group. Therapists' interventions were monitored and found to be faithfully implemented. Groups were equivalent on demographic variables and the quality of the therapeutic alliance. Both EFT and CMT group posttest means were found to be significantly higher than controls on the self-report measures of intimacy, Observational measures of intimacy revealed differential effects in favor of EFT as comopared to CMT at posttest. At a 10-week follow-up, EFT group means were significantly higher than CMT on self-reported intimacy and adjustment.     

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND CULTURAL TRANSMISSION: THEORY AND APPLICATION TO EUROPEAN UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper emphasizes the two‐way causality between the provision of unemployment insurance and the cultural transmission of civicness. The returns to being uncivic are increasing in the generosity of unemployment insurance; but this generosity is decreasing in the number of uncivic individuals. In this context, I determine the evolution of preferences across generations and show that cultural heterogeneity is sustained over the long‐run. The dynamics of cultural transmission can generate a long lag between the introduction of unemployment insurance and an increase in people's willingness to live off government‐provided benefits. Hence, it offers an explanation to the ‘European unemployment puzzle’ due to the coexistence of generous unemployment insurance and low unemployment in the 1950s and 1960s.     

Extremely Premature and Very Low Birthweight Infants: A Double Hazard Population?

This article evaluates the contributions of birth status (defined by gestational age and birthweight) and family adversity at birth and at age 7 to explaining behavior problems at age 7. The behaviors of 96 extremely preterm and very low birth‐weight children and 66 full‐term children were assessed in a school setting by peers, teachers and parents. The results show that a significant relationship exists between birth status and isolation and social withdrawal problems as well as between birth status and social immaturity and inattention problems. Family adversity at birth has a significant contribution to aggressive behaviors reported by the three sources whereas, at age 7, this index is associated only with aggressive behaviors and social immaturity problems reported by parents. In conclusion, the results of the present study qualify the findings of studies that suggest that at school age, the effect of prematurity decreases and that behavior problems are explained chiefly by family environment characteristics. Our results indicate that the findings must take into account the cohort studied, the environmental measures used, the type of behaviors assessed as well as the type of informants.     

Parenthood and Marital Satisfaction: A Meta‐Analytic Review

This meta‐analysis finds that parents report lower marital satisfaction compared with nonparents (d=?.19, r=?.10). There is also a significant negative correlation between marital satisfaction and number of children (d=?.13, r=?.06). The difference in marital satisfaction is most pronounced among mothers of infants (38% of mothers of infants have high marital satisfaction, compared with 62% of childless women). For men, the effect remains similar across ages of children. The effect of parenthood on marital satisfaction is more negative among high socioeconomic groups, younger birth cohorts, and in more recent years. The data suggest that marital satisfaction decreases after the birth of a child due to role conflicts and restriction of freedom.     

Are We Thinking Straight? The Politics of Straightness in a Lesbian and Gay Social Movement Organization

Daniel Cortese's book, ‘Are we thinking straight: Thepolitics of straightness in a lesbian and gay social movementorganization’ examines the political strategies of theUSA organization, the Straight and Gay Alliance (SAGA), andits efforts to promote ‘safe schools’ for lesbian,gay, bisexual and trans youth (LGBT). The book's main focusis on how SAGA deploys the involvement of ‘straight’or heterosexually-identified individuals as part of SAGA's publicpolitical agenda. As a national organization with numerous localchapters across the United States, SAGA encourages parents,teachers and students to work together to ensure that schoolsactively protect LGBT students from homophobic