Mapping Invasive Species Risks with Stochastic Models: A Cross-Border United States-Canada Application for Sirex noctilio Fabricius

Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30-year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials.     

The complementarity of internal integration and product modularity: An empirical study of their interaction effect on competitive capabilities

Modular product design and internal integration are commonly adopted by manufacturers to improve operational performance. A number of studies argue that the adoption of product modularity significantly alters organization design, which affects the impact of internal integration on competitive capabilities. This paper thus aims to empirically explore the individual effects as well as interaction effects of product modularity and internal integration on competitive capabilities. The competitive capabilities studied in this paper include product innovativeness, low price, product quality, delivery, flexibility and customer services. After analysing the data from 251 Hong Kong manufacturers through moderated multiple regression analysis, the study found that better internal integration can significantly improve product innovativeness, product quality, delivery, flexibility and customer services, while a high level of product modularity enhances product innovativeness, flexibility and customer services. More importantly, the study shows that internal integration and product modularity can interact to improve product innovativeness and product quality. These results enhance our understanding of the interaction of product design and organizational coordination.     

Teacher–Child Relationships from Kindergarten to Sixth Grade: Early Childhood Predictors of Teacher-perceived Conflict and Closeness

This article examined general trends in teacher-reported conflict and closeness among 878 children from kindergarten through sixth grade, and examined early childhood characteristics that predict differences in initial levels and growth of conflict and closeness over time. Results indicated modest stability of teacher-perceived conflict and closeness through sixth grade, with relatively greater stability in perceptions of conflict. Levels of conflict at kindergarten were higher for children who were male, Black, had greater mean hours of childcare, had lower academic achievement scores, and had greater externalizing behavior. Children identified as Black and those with less sensitive mothers were at greater risk for increased conflict with teachers over time. Levels of teacher-reported closeness were lower when children were male, had lower quality home environments, and had lower academic achievement scores. The gap in closeness ratings between males and females increased in the middle elementary school years. Additional analyses were conduced to explore differences in teacher ratings of conflict between Black and White students.     

A counterexample to a conjecture of Schwartz

In 1990, motivated by applications in the social sciences, Thomas Schwartz made a conjecture about tournaments which would have had numerous attractive consequences. In particular, it implied that there is no tournament with a partition A, B of its vertex set, such that every transitive subset of A is in the out-neighbour set of some vertex in B, and vice versa. But in fact there is such a tournament, as we show in this article, and so Schwartz’ conjecture is false. Our proof is non-constructive and uses the probabilistic method.     

Alternative Methods for Computing the Sensitivity of Complex Surveillance Systems

Stochastic scenario trees are a new and popular method by which surveillance systems can be analyzed to demonstrate freedom from pests and disease. For multiple component systems—such as a combination of a serological survey and systematically collected observations—it can be difficult to represent the complete system in a tree because many branches are required to represent complex conditional relationships. Here we show that many of the branches of some scenario trees have identical outcomes and are therefore redundant. We demonstrate how to prune branches and derive compact representations of scenario trees using matrix algebra and Bayesian belief networks. The Bayesian network representation is particularly useful for calculation and exposition. It therefore provides a firm basis for arguing disease freedom in international forums.     

One psychiatrist's view of female homosexuality∗

We present a new multidimensional measure of sexual activity and preference that may be of use to researchers and practitioners who work in clinical settings involving sex‐related problems. The questionnaire contains six subscales to measure amounts of sexual activity and six subscales to measure degree of preference for those activities. The 12 subscales have good to excellent reliabilities, and they all appear to have content, construct, and factorial validity.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French Cold-Smoked Salmon: II. Risk Characterization

A model for the assessment of exposure to Listeria monocytogenes from cold-smoked salmon consumption in France was presented in the first of this pair of articles (Pouillot et al ., 2007, Risk Analysis, 27:683–700). In the present study, the exposure model output was combined with an internationally accepted hazard characterization model, adapted to the French situation, to assess the risk of invasive listeriosis from cold-smoked salmon consumption in France in a second-order Monte Carlo simulation framework. The annual number of cases of invasive listeriosis due to cold-smoked salmon consumption in France is estimated to be 307, with a very large credible interval ([10; 12,453]), reflecting data uncertainty. This uncertainty is mainly associated with the dose-response model. Despite the significant uncertainty associated with the predictions, this model provides a scientific base for risk managers and food business operators to manage the risk linked to cold-smoked salmon contaminated with L. monocytogenes. Under the modeling assumptions, risk would be efficiently reduced through a decrease in the prevalence of L. monocytogenes or better control of the last steps of the cold chain (shorter and/or colder storage during the consumer step), whereas reduction of the initial contamination levels of the contaminated products and improvement in the first steps of the cold chain do not seem to be promising strategies. An attempt to apply the recent risk-based concept of FSO (food safety objective) on this example underlines the ambiguity in practical implementation of the risk management metrics and the need for further elaboration on these concepts.     

Some implementation experiences with just-in-time manufacturing

A case study on the implementation of a just-in-time (JIT) production system by a Canadian manufacturer in the heavy machinery industry is presented. Many hurdles and difficulties were encountered during implementation and the way in which these problems were resolved is reported. While the successful implementation of a JIT system depends on a host of technical and human factors, this study suggests that the people involvement factor is the most crucial. It is seen that the key elements to securing people involvement are institution leadership, company-wide education and training and mutual understanding, trust and respect among employees. The moral of this study is that without employee involvement nothing will happen and no result will be achieved.     

Immigrants and Employer-provided Training

Much has been written about the labour market outcomes for immigrants in their host countries, particularly with regard to earnings, employment and occupational attainment. However, much less attention has been paid to the question of whether immigrants are as likely to receive employer-provided training relative to comparable natives. As such training should be crucial in determining the labour market success of immigrants in the long run it is a critically important question. Using data from a large-scale survey of employees in Ireland, we find that immigrants are less likely to receive training from employers, with immigrants from the New Member States of the EU experiencing a particular disadvantage. The immigrant training disadvantage arises in part from a failure on the part of immigrants to get employed by training-oriented firms. However, they also experience a training disadvantage relative to natives within firms where less training is provided.