The nature and effectiveness of program models for adolescents at risk of entering the formal child protection system

This article compares rationales and outcome research for five areas of programming for adolescents: adolescent competence and skill development programs, family- and parent-focused programs, social integration programs, multiple component programs, and neighborhood transformation programs. The article examines program evidence for maltreated teens as well as teens coping with a variety of other challenges. The study uses a framework based on common developmental challenges and risk factors for adolescents to select and review programs.     

Children's Cognitive Perceptions of 6/49 Lottery Tickets

Recent studies have shown the high prevalence of youth gambling behavior. In particular, lottery ticket purchases among children and adolescents appear to be a highly preferred activity. Despite this fact, most research has focused on the underlying erroneous cognitions used by adults when selecting lottery tickets. This study examines the cognitive perceptions of children while engaged in selecting 6/49 lottery tickets. One hundred sixty-seven children (61 females; 106 males) from grades 3, 5, and 7 were asked to rank pre-selected 6/49 lottery tickets which were classified into a) long series, b) specific patterns, c) non equilibrated numbers, or d) perceived random selections. Children verbalized their rationale for selecting each ticket and were permitted to change the numbers on the lottery tickets they liked least in order to make them to more likely to be the winning ticket. Findings, in general, revealed small developmental differences in the types of underlying cognitive heuristics used by the children. The use of cognitive heuristics underlying the concept of randomness and the use of significant and meaningful numbers was observed to increase as children got older. Children between 9 and 11 were found to have employed the cluster heuristic more frequently than older children, ages 12–13. The results are interpreted in terms of the cognitive developmental changes in children's perceptions and the potential implication for gambling prevention programs are provided.     

Evaluating Population Forecast Accuracy: A Regression Approach Using County Data

Many studies have evaluated the impact of differences in population size and growth rate on population forecast accuracy. Virtually all these studies have been based on aggregate data; that is, they focused on average errors for places with particular size or growth rate characteristics. In this study, we take a different approach by investigating forecast accuracy using regression models based on data for individual places. Using decennial census data from 1900 to 2000 for 2,482 counties in the US, we construct a large number of county population forecasts and calculate forecast errors for 10- and 20-year horizons. Then, we develop and evaluate several alternative functional forms of regression models relating population size and growth rate to forecast accuracy; investigate the impact of adding several other explanatory variables; and estimate the relative contributions of each variable to the discriminatory power of the models. Our results confirm several findings reported in previous studies but uncover several new findings as well. We believe regression models based on data for individual places provide powerful but under-utilized tools for investigating the determinants of population forecast accuracy.     

Assessing Uncertainty in Small Area Forecasts: State of the Practice and Implementation Strategy

Forecasts are needed for everyday decisions and must be in the form of numbers. Yet forecasts invariably turn out to be different than the numbers that actually occur. Yet, most producers of forecasts only present a deterministic view of the future in the form of point predictions. However, the presence of uncertainty is inherent in management or policy decisions and there is often concern that benefits are overstated and risks are understated. Such concerns are difficult to address by providing only point forecasts with no assessment of their uncertainty. Having a better understanding of uncertainty can enhance the usefulness of forecasts and make the work of forecasting agencies an even more valuable product for planners, policy makers, and the public. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it presents an overview of the current state-of-the-practice is assessing forecast uncertainty. Second, it offers a guidelines and options for implementing and building uncertainty into small area forecasting processes. There are options for assessing forecasting uncertainty that can and should be implemented by most, if not all, producers of forecasts.     

Adolescent Bullying and Weapon Carrying: A Longitudinal Investigation

Using four data waves from an ongoing longitudinal study, we examined the longitudinal association between weapon carrying and bullying (i.e., bully, victim, bully‐victim). Participants were 1,042 adolescents (55.9% female) recruited from Texas high schools, including Hispanic (31.7%), White (30.3%), African American (26.6%), and other (11.4%) with a mean age of 15.1 years at baseline. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that only baseline bully‐victim was linked to weapon carrying and only 1 year later (Adjusted odds ratio = 1.76, 95% confidence interval: 1.08, 2.85), after controlling for baseline weapon carrying, age, gender, race, and parent education. No significant longitudinal association was found with bully or victim. Findings emphasize the importance of interventions targeting both bullying perpetrators and victims, while also highlighting the necessity of longitudinal research.     

The economic importance of air travel in high-amenity rural areas

The western United States offers a case study on the importance of access to large population centers and their markets, via road and air travel, for economic development. The vast distances between towns and cities in the American West can be a detriment to business, yet they also serve to attract technology and knowledge-based workers seeking to live in a picturesque setting. In spite of the increasing importance of amenities to migration and business location, also needed is access to markets, particularly via commercial air service. We test a new county classification system for the western United States to reflect differing degrees of access to population centers and account for the increasing importance of airports. Past classifications are based on population size and cross-county commuting. We examine the validity of this new classification and test for differences in economic performance among the three county types. Our findings show that there are three distinct Wests that can be classified using economic performance measures and socioeconomic characteristics. The results show that “metro” and “isolated” counties are clearly distinct, but “connected” counties, those that are rural in nature but have ready access to metropolitan areas via air travel, can be difficult to distinguish from “metro” and “isolated” counties. Much of the variation is explained by travel distance to airports. The findings illustrate the importance of airports in rural development, and the limitations facing those communities that are isolated from markets and population centers. The results apply to other parts of the world with similar characteristics that include large expanses of open space, natural amenities that attract migrants and stimulate new business, and different degrees of access to large population centers via road or air travel, and therefore different rates of economic growth.     

Understanding the Relationship Between Sports-Relevant Gambling and Being At-Risk for a Gambling Problem Among American Adolescents

Fantasy sports is a growing industry with a reported 56.8 million individuals participating in the United States and Canada alone in 2015. Whereas this activity has attracted considerable public attention, little research has examined its impact on adolescents in spite of their high rates of gambling. The current study examined the relationship between regular participation (more than once a month) in sport-relevant gambling activities among adolescents and those identified as being at-risk for a gambling problem. Questionnaire responses were collected from high school students (N = 6818; 49 % male) in Wood County, Ohio, United States. Statistical analyses revealed that regular involvement in sports betting, fantasy sports betting, and daily fantasy sports betting among adolescents was associated with a higher risk of gambling problems. Further, although males participate more frequently in these activities, females who participate have a stronger likelihood of being at-risk. Students aged 16–19 years old are at a higher risk for developing a gambling problem compared to younger adolescents when regularly engaging in sports-related gambling. Moreover, regularly participating in daily fantasy sports is the strongest predictor of at-risk gambling behavior in 13–15 year old students. A hierarchical logistic regression supports that controlling for gender and age, all forms of sport-relevant gambling activities are significant predictors of at-risk gambling. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of sports betting and fantasy sports on adolescents and establishes an initial step for future studies to further investigate these relationships.