COMMONWEALTH DROUGHT POLICY: 1989–1995. A CASE STUDY OF ECONOMIC RATIONALISM

Drought is a natural phenomenon that has particular implications for a primary industry, namely farmers. This paper examines the policy responses of the early 1990s. It is argued that these were driven more by political expedience than careful planning. In conclusion, it is suggested that drought policy shows one issue on which it was necessary to reverse, if only partially, the ‘economic rationalism’ that had dominated thinking in the 1980s.     

Grassroot Soccer resiliency pilot program: building resiliency through sport-based education in Zambia and South Africa

Grassroot Soccer designed a curriculum and sport-based teaching model to build resiliency, targeting boys and girls in Lusaka, Zambia, and Johannesburg, South Africa, where most children are reminded daily of the devastation caused by AIDS and where many face chronic and acute hardship. The activities that were created were designed to resonate with youths' interests in sport while teaching boys and girls between ten and eighteen years of age skills to build resiliency and prevent infection of HIV.     

American Roulette: The Effect of Reminders of Death on Support for George W. Bush in the 2004 Presidential Election

An experiment was conducted to assess the effect of a subtle reminder of death on voting intentions for the 2004 U.S. presidential election. On the basis of terror management theory and previous research, we hypothesized that a mortality salience induction would increase support for President George W. Bush and decrease support for Senator John Kerry. In late September 2004, following a mortality salience or control induction, registered voters were asked which candidate they intended to vote for. In accord with predictions, Senator John Kerry received substantially more votes than George Bush in the control condition, but Bush was favored over Kerry following a reminder of death, suggesting that President Bush's re-election may have been facilitated by nonconscious concerns about mortality in the aftermath of September 11, 2001.     

Weighted L1-estimates for the First-order Bifurcating Autoregressive Model

We developed robust estimators that minimize a weighted L₁ norm for the first-order bifurcating autoregressive model. When all of the weights are fixed, our estimate is an L₁ estimate that is robust against outlying points in the response space and more efficient than the least squares estimate for heavy-tailed error distributions. When the weights are random and depend on the points in the factor space, the weighted L₁ estimate is robust against outlying points in the factor space. Simulated and artificial examples are presented. The behavior of the proposed estimate is modeled through a Monte Carlo study.     

New organizational structures: skill implications for professionals

Many writers predict that emerging new organizational structures will displace the traditional hierarchical structures. This paper looks at the skill implications for ‘professionals’ as these changes take place. It presents data gathered from a series of structured group discussions conducted with managers and professionals in the UK retail financial services sector (banking, insurance and mortgage lending) to illustrate how changing structures are impacting on ‘professional’ skills and roles. Six key trends, identified in the group discussions, are examined in the light of models which predict the way ‘professionals’ will be managed over the next few years. These trends are illustrated by short case examples or vignettes.     

“众包”兴起

欢迎来到众包的时代! 随着网络的普及和科技的进步,以往许多专业人士才能涉及的生产活动日益变成大众生产。许多技术难题,都正在越来越多地寻求通过大众智慧来加以解决。当然,这并不意味着完全免费,但企业为此所付出的成本要远远少于传统的作业方式。     

Bayesian Spatial Analysis for the Evaluation of Breast Cancer Detection Methods

This study investigated the impact of spatial location on the effectiveness of population‐based breast screening in reducing breast cancer mortality compared to other detection methods among Queensland women. The analysis was based on linked population‐based datasets from BreastScreen Queensland and the Queensland Cancer Registry for the period of 1997–2008 for women aged less than 90 years at diagnosis. A Bayesian hierarchical regression modelling approach was adopted and posterior estimation was performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. This approach accommodated sparse data resulting from rare outcomes in small geographic areas, while allowing for spatial correlation and demographic influences to be included. A relative survival model was chosen to evaluate the relative excess risk for each breast cancer related factor. Several models were fitted to examine the influence of demographic information, cancer stage, geographic information and detection method on women's relative survival. Overall, the study demonstrated that including the detection method and geographic information when assessing the relative survival of breast cancer patients helped capture unexplained and spatial variability. The study also found evidence of better survival among women with breast cancer diagnosed in a screening program than those detected otherwise, as well as lower risk for those residing in a more urban or socio‐economically advantaged region, even after adjusting for tumour stage, environmental factors and demographics. However, no evidence of dependency between method of detection and geographic location was found. This project provides a sophisticated approach to examining the benefit of a screening program while considering the influence of geographic factors.