Bayes and MCMC for Undergraduates

Students of statistics should be taught the ideas and methods that are widely used in practice and that will help them understand the world of statistics. Today, this means teaching them about Bayesian methods. In this article, I present ideas on teaching an undergraduate Bayesian course that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and that can be a second course or, for strong students, a first course in statistics.     

Top foundations' 10‐year plunge into alternatives yields mixed results and high fees

Private foundations control a sizable pool of investment capital. This paper examines the endowment returns of private foundations. Over the 10‐year period, 2006–2015, the top 56 of these organizations fully embraced the “Yale model” of portfolio construction. As a group, they substantially cut allocations to publicly traded stocks and bonds in favor of illiquid alternatives that supposedly offered higher returns and lower volatility. Despite pursuing risky investments in illiquid alternative assets, our study concludes that the foundations were not “paid” for illiquidity in terms of a meaningfully return premium (vs. public markets). Moreover, their annual return volatility, or risk, was similar to either a 60–40 composite index portfolio or a typical public pension plan, both of which had lower equity‐type exposure and greater liquidity. The implication is that foundations can achieve the same returns with better liquidity and/or lower risk with passive investments in broad index mutual funds or similar vehicles. In addition, we estimate the third‐party money management fees of the top foundations to equal 1.43% of the assets for the fiscal year 2016. This 1.43% is a sizable number when compared to the 5% of assets (including overhead expenses) that the federal government requires that foundations distribute each year in furtherance of their charitable missions.     

Locating the Community Field: A Study of Interorganizational Network Structure and Capacity for Community Action*

Abstract I examine the concept of the community field to identify the structures, elements, and processes that generate improved capacity for community action. I conduct analysis of interlocking leadership among local organizations and recent community action in three Midwestern communities to determine the structure and attributes of the community field. I use findings from community power research to anticipate and guide interpretation of the different network structures found in each community. A community field is identified in the communities with pyramidal and coalitional structures. Inclusive, coordinating networks, institutions with stockpiled resources, and the existence of local planning processes are some of the community field‐like structures and processes I identify. The findings have implications for future rural community research and practice, including support for increased use of network analysis as a diagnostic tool for community development.     

In search of the ideal measure of accuracy for subnational demographic forecasts

We examine nonlinear transformations of the forecasterror distribution in hopes of finding a summary errormeasure that is not prone to an upward bias and usesmost of the information about that error. MAPE, thecurrent standard for measuring error, often overstatesthe error represented by most of the values becausethe distribution underlying the MAPE is right skewedand truncated at zero. Using a modification to theBox-Cox family of nonlinear transformations, wetransform these skewed forecast error distributionsinto symmetrical distributions for a wide range ofsize and growth rate conditions. We verify thissymmetry using graphical devices and statisticaltests; examine the transformed errors to determine ifre-expression to the scale of the untransformed errorsis necessary; and develop and implement a procedurefor the re-expression. The MAPE-R developed by ourprocess is lower than the MAPE based on theuntransformed errors and is more consistent with arobust estimator of location.     

Differences in drinking expectancies and motives for regular education and special education high school students with emotional/behavioral disorders

Alcohol expectancies and drinking motives were compared for regular education students (n=159) and students with emotional/behavioral disorders (EBD) receiving special education services (n=51). Differences existed between groups with respect to expected negative social consequences and emotional and physical outcomes associated with drinking. Across groups, drinkers reported more positive alcohol expectancies than non-drinkers, while non-drinkers reported more negative alcohol expectancies than drinkers. Differences also existed between the regular education and EBD students who drank with respect to coping, conformity, and social motives. Accounting for sample sizes differences, the relationship between alcohol use and negative physical effect was stronger for regular education students, while the relationship between alcohol use and conformity motives was stronger for the EBD group.     

Implementing Single Session Therapy

In recent decades, discussion about clinical practice has been dominated by a focus on evidence‐based treatments, whilst the translation of evidence‐based treatments into practice has been neglected or avoided. The single session therapy (SST) field reflects this general trend. As a result, the community has not benefited from available service improvements simply because they have not found their way into core practice or been translated across state‐wide services. This article draws on a range of implementation projects managed by The Bouverie Centre, in particular a successful state‐wide SST implementation project conducted in collaboration with Victorian community health counselling services, to raise implementation dilemmas and suggest practical ideas about the translation of SST ideas into mainstream clinical practice. It is hoped this discussion will be of interest to those wanting to translate any new idea into practice.     

Embedding Artists within Planning: Calgary’s Watershed+ Initiative

Since 2011, artists have been embedded within Calgary’s Utilities and Environmental Protection department as part of the public art program Watershed+. In particular, artists are given workspaces alongside municipal staff to encourage interaction and new ideas. Watershed+ has led to innovative examples of public art that are meant to provoke thought about the local environment. Through interviews with artists and municipal staff engaged in the project, this paper explores the specific avenues through which the initiative has embedded artists within municipal planning. The paper also considers the transferability of the Watershed+ model to other cities.