Flipping and ex post aggregation

We show that Bayesian ex post aggregation is unstable with respect to refinements. Suppose a group of Bayesians use ex post aggregation. Since it is a joint problem, each agent's problem is captured by the same model, but probabilities and utilities may vary. If they analyze the same situation in more detail, their refined analysis should preserve their preferences among acts. However, ex post aggregation could bring about a preference reversal on the group level. Ex post aggregation thus depends on how much information is used and may keep oscillating (“flipping”) as one keeps adding more information. Received: 16 April 2002/Accepted: 27 May 2002     

A simultaneous-equations model of the relationship between public sector bargaining legislation and unionization

This paper estimates a simultaneous-equations model with public sector bargaining laws and union membership treated as jointly-determined variables. The extent of public sector unionization has a significant positive influence on the passage of prolabor bargaining legislation and bargaining legislation has strong, independent effects on the extent of public sector unionization. We gratefully acknowledge the research support provided by Minbo Kim and Parisun Chantonahom.     

Drug testing laws and employment injuries

Employer use of employee drugscreening procedures is widespread in the U.S. A state-by-state analysis of statutory law applicable to the drug testing issue is combined with state and industry data to isolate how drug testing laws affect workplace injury rates. Based on our data, injury rates are not statistically related to the state’s legal environment.     

In Whose Backyard?: Concern About Siting a Nuclear Waste Facility*

Proponents of hazardous and nuclear waste depositories label opponents to local siting of such facilities “NIMBYs” (Not In My Backyard). This study assesses the extent to which the NIMBY label and the strategies of industry proponents to reduce opposition function on a reasonable set of assumptions. Using survey data and multiple regression techniques, the levels of concern of residents living in the county selected as the site of a low level radioactive waste disposal facility (imminent threat condition) are compared with a statewide sample (hypothetical threat condition). Consistent with proponents' theoretical assumptions, the levels of concern are greater for respondents under conditions of imminent threat than of hypothetical threat. However, within the host county, levels of concern are lowest, albeit most polarized, in the community closest to the proposed site. A conflict theory approach enhances an understanding of these findings by suggesting that within the most proximate community levels of concern are lowest for citizens who stand to gain the most economic benefits from the facility but highest for those citizens who are least likely to derive tangible gains.     

Outcome Expectations in Prolonged Conflicts: Perceptions of Sense of Control and Relative Deprivation

How do feelings of deprivation and a sense of control influence future expectations on the parts of Jews, Arabs, and Palestinians? We assumed that all non-Jews, but especially Palestinians, are discriminated against in Israel and that awareness of discrimination may have two related effects. First, it may strengthen feelings of relative deprivation among members of the group being discriminated against. Second, awareness of discrimination may lower the sense of control among the disadvantaged, because their life experiences diminish their ability to exercise authority and influence in order to direct and regulate their choices. However, when analyzing expectations, previous studies focused either on relative deprivation or on sense of control, not on both. Assuming that the two are related, we included both to analyze outcome expectations. We also present an alternative approach to sense of control to include an expressive dimension of control in addition to the traditional instrumental dimension. As expected, the findings indicate that Palestinians have the strongest feelings of personal deprivation and the lowest future expectations. Jews feel the lowest personal deprivation and have the highest expectations.     

Adaptive Management: A Paradigm for Remediation of Public Facilities Following a Terrorist Attack

Terrorist actions are aimed at maximizing harm (health, psychological, economical, and political) through the combined physical impacts of the act and fear. Immediate and effective response to a terrorist act is critical to limit human and environmental harm, effectively restore facility function, and maintain public confidence. Though there have been terrorist attacks in public facilities that we have learned from, overall our experiences in restoration of public facilities following a terrorist attack are limited. Restoration of public facilities following a release of a hazardous material is inherently far more complex than in industrial settings and has many unique technical, economic, social, and political challenges. For example, there may be a great need to quickly restore the facility to full operation and allow public access even though it was not designed for easy or rapid restoration, and critical information is needed for quantitative risk assessment and effective restoration must be anticipated to be incomplete and uncertain. Whereas present planning documents have substantial linearity in their organization, the “adaptive management” paradigm provides a constructive parallel paradigm for restoration of public facilities that anticipates and plans for uncertainty, inefficiencies, and stakeholder participation. Adaptive management grew out of the need to manage and restore natural resources in highly complex and changing environments with limited knowledge about causal relationships and responses to restoration actions. Similarities between natural resource management and restoration of a public facility after a terrorist attack suggest that integration of adaptive management principles explicitly into restoration processes will result in substantially enhanced and flexible responses necessary to meet the uncertainties of potential terrorist attacks.     

Symbols of Organization: Informal Ways of Negotiating the Global and the Local in MNCs

Abstract In this article I build on the growing number of anthropological studies of businesses and explore the role that symbols play in the development of globalizing business networks. Transnational business people employ symbols not only to define boundaries between groups and develop collective solidarity but also to construct continuously changing networks between different social spaces and even, in the final analysis, between the concepts of global and local. The case study presented here focuses on the use of the symbols defining ‘German business style’ by the employees of a branch of a German bank in London as they interact with colleagues in the office, staff at their Frankfurt head office, and their clients and competitors. I conclude that, first, the use of symbols in social interaction is key to the negotiation of global and local spaces, and second, that, as the concepts of ‘global’ and ‘local’ spaces are themselves symbolic constructs, the drawing of distinctions between the two may be misleading.     

Optimal scaling of Metropolis algorithms: Heading toward general target distributions

The authors provide an overview of optimal scaling results for the Metropolis algorithm with Gaussian proposal distribution. They address in more depth the case of high‐dimensional target distributions formed of independent, but not identically distributed components. They attempt to give an intuitive explanation as to why the well‐known optimal acceptance rate of 0.234 is not always suitable. They show how to find the asymptotically optimal acceptance rate when needed, and they explain why it is sometimes necessary to turn to inhomogeneous proposal distributions. Their results are illustrated with a simple example.