The problem of multiple causation in population analysis, with particular reference to the poplygamy-fertility hypothesis

The hypothesis that polygyny is associated with higher fertility than monogamy was evaluated. An assessment of previous studies and of the results of a 1966-1967 study comparing the fertility levels of polygynously and monogamously married women in a rural and an urban population in Nigeria lead to the conclusion that the hypothesis was useless. The hypothesis was judged to be useless because 1) fertility rates are the product of multiple influences; 2) it is too difficult to separate out these multiple influences, given the variability involved in polygynous practices and the inadequates of the data; and 3) the influence of polygyny on fertility is too slight to take into account. In the Nigerian study, the fertility of 2742 monogamously married women was compared with the fertility of 1261 polygynously married women. Preliminary analysis revealed that the fertility rate was higher for polygynously married women; however, when marriage duration was controlled, there was no significant differences between the fertility rates observed for the polygynously and monogamously married women living in rural areas nor those living in urban area.     

APPLICATIONS OF SPECTRAL ANALYSIS

The basic concepts and application of spectral analysis are explained. Stationary time series and autocorrelation are first defined. Autocorrelation is related to the familiar concepts of variance and covariance. The use of autocorrelation analysis is explained in estimating the interdependent relationship of a time series over discrete time lags. In order to measure the behavior of the time series using autocorrelation, it would be necessary to examine a very large number of autocorrelation lags. Alternatively, the technique of Fourier analysis can be used to transform the autocorrelation function of the time series into a continuous function, termed a spectrum. The spectrum has a one to one correspondence to the autocorrelation for the time series and has the advantage of representing all possible autocorrelations over the discrete time lags. The spectrum can then be examined as a measure of the behavior of the time series. Spectral analysis indicates the reliability of the analysis of autocorrelated variables when familiar statistical techniques such as sample means and variances are used. The application of spectral analysis to management science problems in three general areas is illustrated: (1) inventory demand, (2) transportation simulation, and (3) stock market price behavior. Spectral analysis was used to detect cycles and trends in the data. Analyses were focused on the spectrum which provides a measure of the relative contribution of cycles in a band of frequencies to the total variance of the data.     

METHODS FOR QUANTIFYING SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES AND MULTI-ATTRIBUTE UTILITIES*†

In many situations where normative decision-aiding techniques could be usefully applied, historical data are inadequate for estimating the required outcome probabilities, and economic methodologies are inadequate for estimating the aggregate utility derived from the several outcome attributes. In such cases it is often useful to obtain the required estimates in the form of expert judgments, i.e. to obtain subjective probabilities and multi-attribute utilities. Similarly, in many situations where behavioral decision processes are to be studied, it is necessary to scale the expectations and perceived values of the decision makers. This article describes the methods for eliciting subjective probabilities and multi-attribute utilities whose usefulness has been empirically studied and reported in the research literature. It also contains summary guidelines concerning the elicitation and use of such judgments.     

APPLICATION AND IMPLEMENTATION

Organizations are in constant interaction with their environment. This phenomenon has been termed in the literature as the environment-organizational interface. An organization acquires information concerning changes in its environment via some scanning system. This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation of the scanning process. The relationships of scanning to different environmental states is discussed and various propositions advanced. Different environmental states (stable versus dynamic) are moderated by the determinants of hierarchical levels and functional specialties in the firm.     

Cost/quality tradeoffs for control procedures in information systems

An analytical framework is presented to study the cost/benefit tradeoffs of alternative internal control scenarios designed to ensure quality of outputs from information systems. A mathematical model is used to evaluate the impact that various alternatives have on system performance and cost. The model can be used to compare the benefits gained from enhanced processing with those arising from more effective internal control procedures. Model variables under the control of system designers include placement and effectiveness of internal control procedures, cost and quality of processing activities, both manual and computerized, and cost and quality of correction procedures. The model incorporates a penalty cost incurred by failure to detect and correct errors. The analytical process is illustrated through application to a specific information system.     

Contractors and their Psychological Contracts

It is commonly assumed that contractors are largely calculative, instrumental and self-interested in their relationship with organizations and interface with them accordingly (e.g. low corporate interest and emotional investment). This paper describes a survey involving 117 contractors (62 on 'permanent' agency contracts and 55 on 'temporary' agency contracts) and a comparable (age, job level/grade, years of work experience) group of 86 direct employees (on fixed-term contracts). The survey comprised measures of the psychological contract, of organizational identification, social (corporate) attraction, team spirit and intention to leave. The findings show that contractors are not inevitably 'emotionally' detached from their place of work, in some cases investing in it as much as direct company employees. While transactional (e.g. financial gain, instrumentality) exchange considerations were more salient among contractors than employees, this did not appear to preclude the development of a relational (e.g. corporate integration and long-term investment) contractual orientation. 'Team spirit' and 'organizational identification' predicted the development of relational contracts over and above contractual status. The findings and their management implications are discussed in terms of 'strategic partnership'.     

Sociotropic Concerns and Support for Counterterrorism Policies*

Objective. An individual's personal experiences and perception of the collective experience are often linked to political attitudes, especially those concerning the national economy. In this article, we examine whether personal concern about terrorism and perceptions of public concern about terrorism affect attitudes about counterterrorism policies. In addition, we evaluate which factor is the strongest predictor across several counterterrorism policies. Method. We analyze individual‐level survey data collected during the fall of 2001. Results. Our results indicate that perceptions of public concerns are the strongest and most consistent predictor of policy attitudes about terrorism. Conclusion. The implications for theory about perceptions of public opinion and the competing role of personal interest and sociotropic concern are discussed.