Passenger Rail Security,Planning, and Resilience: Application of Network,Plume, and Economic Simulation Models as Decision Support Tools

We built three simulation models that can assist rail transit planners and operators to evaluate high and low probability rail‐centered hazard events that could lead to serious consequences for rail‐centered networks and their surrounding regions. Our key objective is to provide these models to users who, through planning with these models, can prevent events or more effectively react to them. The first of the three models is an industrial systems simulation tool that closely replicates rail passenger traffic flows between New York Penn Station and Trenton, New Jersey. Second, we built and used a line source plume model to trace chemical plumes released by a slow‐moving freight train that could impact rail passengers, as well as people in surrounding areas. Third, we crafted an economic simulation model that estimates the regional economic consequences of a variety of rail‐related hazard events through the year 2020. Each model can work independently of the others. However, used together they help provide a coherent story about what could happen and set the stage for planning that should make rail‐centered transport systems more resistant and resilient to hazard events. We highlight the limitations and opportunities presented by using these models individually or in sequence.     

Managers in the Global Economy: A Multilevel Analysis

We examine individual‐ and country‐level determinants of managerial employment, using data from the 1989 to 2009 waves of the World Values and European Values Surveys (n = 89,336 employed adults in 59 countries). Reflecting the rise of the transnational capitalist class, we find that factors related to globalization and international political institutions are most strongly associated with opportunities to join the managerial class relative to factors related to the business‐cycle or development. Additionally, in a subset of countries with detailed occupational information, we find that global trade has a particularly strong, positive association with the odds of being a corporate manager in a large firm.     

Use of propensity score matching to evaluate a national smoking cessation media campaign

Sustained mass media campaigns have been recommended to stem the tobacco epidemic in the United States. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to estimate the effect of awareness of a national smoking cessation media campaign (EX) on quit attempts and cessation-related cognition. Participants were 4,067 smokers and recent quitters aged 18-49 in targeted U.S. media markets. Controlling for potential confounders through PSM and regression analysis, confirmed awareness of EX was not significantly associated with either outcome at 6-month follow-up. Matched analyses excluding 217 quitters resulted in a significant effect of EX on both outcomes.     

Sex Related Factors in the Perception of Threatening Facial Expressions

This study replicated and extended previously reported sex differences involving both viewer and target in the recognition of threatening facial expressions. Based on the assumption that the evolved cognitive mechanisms mediating anger recognition would have been designed by natural selection to operate quickly in the interests of survival, brief tachistoscopic presentation of stimulus photographs was used. Additionally, in contrast to prior published studies, the statistical methods of signal detection research were used to control for the confounding effects of non-random guessing. The main hypothesis, that anger posed by males would be more accurately perceived than anger posed by females, was supported. A secondary hypothesis, that female-posed anger would be more accurately perceived by women than by men, received partial support. Testosterone levels, measured inferentially in terms of diurnal cycles, failed to show the hypothesized positive relationship to accuracy of anger perception.     

“Fear Runs Deep:” The Anticipated Needs of LGBT Older Adults in Long-Term Care

Objectives: Older lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) adults are a vulnerable yet resilient population who face unique stressors as they foresee health decline. This paper presents the results of a study about community-dwelling LGBT older adults’ anticipated needs and fears related to nursing homes and assisted living. Methods: This qualitative study collected data through seven focus groups. The sample (N = 50) consisted of LGBT-identified adults age 55 and over. We used an inductive, thematic analysis approach to data analysis. Results: Participants seek an inclusive environment where they will be safe and feel connected to a community. They fear dependence on healthcare providers, dementia, mistreatment, and isolation. Importantly, these fears can lead to identity concealment and psychological distress, including suicide ideation. Discussion: This study adds to the existing literature about the worries of older LGBT adults as they anticipate long-term care. The results suggest that older LGBT adults seek LGBT-inclusive residential care settings that encompass two distinct yet related aspects of LGBT-affirmative care: the procedural (e.g. culturally competent skills and knowledge of practitioners) and the implicit (e.g. the values and mission of the organization). This paper identifies implications for practice, policy, and training.     

An investigation of unmet intimacy needs in marital relationships

In this investigation we examined partners' responses to unmet intimacy needs in hopes of better understanding how these responses may affect intimacy satisfaction and overall relationship satisfaction. Eighty-four married couples, plus four additional husbands and 12 additional wives, were recruited from the community and completed measures of relationship satisfaction, intimacy need satisfaction, and attributional and communication responses to unmet intimacy needs. Consistent with the proposed mediational model, less negative attributional and communication responses to unmet intimacy needs were found to be beneficial for overall intimacy satisfaction and relationship satisfaction. In addition, more positive communication responses contributed to greater intimacy satisfaction. Limitations and clinical implications of the current study and directions for future work are discussed.     

Interpreting demographic effects in duration analyses of first birth intervals

Estimated demographic effects in proportional hazard models of first birth intervals could reflect time-invariant differences in the risk of a birth, or differences in the timing of a shift in the risk, or both. This paper attempts to distinguish between these possibilities. The procedure is to estimate a more general model than the proportional hazard specification, in which the evolution of the risk of a birth can differ with demographic characteristics. The proportional hazard specification is nested within this more general model. Consequently, the consistency of the data with the risk or the timing interpretation of demographic effects can be tested. The data studied do not lead to a rejection of the proportional hazard specification.Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. The initial stage of this research was supported by a National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship. I have benefited from insightful comments from David Bloom, Andrew Foster, Zvi Griliches, V. Joseph Hotz, Duncan Thomas, anonymous referees, and participants in seminars at Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania, and in the Economic Demography sessions of the 1988 Population Association of America annual meetings. Any remaining errors are my own.     

Migration from Latin American countries to the United States: the economic,social and reproductive lives of Hispanic female immigrants, 1980

The authors describe the socioeconomic characteristics and fertility patterns of female immigrants from Latin America to the United States, with a focus on reasons for fertility differentials. "Using the one per cent public use sample from the 1970 and 1980 United States census, we first compare changes in socio economic characteristics from 1970 to 1980, and then examine the determinants of fertility of female immigrants to the United States, aged 16-49, from four Latin American areas or countries of birth.... The findings...suggest that there are direct effects of demographic, assimilation, and socioeconomic variables beyond those mediated by the variables in each of these sets. Further, regardless of the model, the effect of the clusters of demographic characteristics is most apparent. Age categories and marital status are the strongest indexed determinants of immigrant fertility.... The effect of education and employment is strong. Among assimilation variables, duration of residence and language ability are significant determinants of Hispanic immigrant fertility." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)