Self-deception in public relations. A psychological and sociological approach to the challenge of conflicting expectations

The paper enquires into the role of self-deception in public relations struggling with discrepancies between heterogeneous stakeholder expectations and organizational interests and particularly between normative expectations of truthfulness and practical temptations of deception. Drawing on theoretical foundations of evolutionary psychology and sociology, we propose a framework for the origins, drivers, and functions of self-deception in public relations. The analysis reveals that under specific conditions self-deception can be an essential mechanism in public relations because it relieves practitioners from tensions driven by conflicting perceptions of truth and legitimacy. Self-deception is most likely to occur in situations of cognitive dissonance for practitioners to balance internal information processing and in situations of normative pressure when practitioners seek to comply with external expectations.     

The Impact of Mega‐Catastrophes on Insurers: An Exposure‐Based Analysis of the U.S. Homeowners’ Insurance Market

Insurance is a key risk‐sharing mechanism that protects citizens and governments from the losses caused by natural catastrophes. Given the increase in the frequency and intensity of natural catastrophes over recent years, this article analyzes the performance effects of mega‐catastrophes for U.S. insurance firms using a measure of market expectations. Specifically, we analyze the share price losses of insurance firms in response to catastrophe events to ascertain whether mega‐catastrophes significantly damage the performance of insurers and whether different types of mega‐catastrophes have different impacts. The main message from our analysis is that the impact of mega‐catastrophes on insurers has not been too damaging. While the exact impact of catastrophes depends on the nature of the event and the degree of competition within the relevant insurance market (less competition allows insurers to recoup catastrophe losses through adjustments to premiums), our overall results suggest that U.S. insurance firms can adequately manage the risks and costs of mega‐catastrophes. From a public policy perspective, our results show that insurance provides a robust means of sharing catastrophe losses to help reduce the financial consequences of a catastrophe event.     

Multiplicative Bias Correction in Kernel Hazard Estimation

A multiplicative bias reducing technique is introduced for kernel hazard estimation. Similar methods were introduced by Linton & Nielsen (1994) in non-parametric regression and Jones et al . (1995) in non-parametric density estimation. A simulation study indicates good performance of the method. An application is provided on the development of Danish mortality.     

Living Apart Together: Alters- und Kohortenabhängigkeit einer heterogenen Lebensform

Living apart together (LAT) is a committed partnership between two partners living in different households. It is ignored in most social surveys (e. g. the German Mikrozensus) because these focus on partners sharing the same household. The German socio-economic panel (SOEP) provides the unique opportunity to study LAT partnerships separately from singledom and cohabitation since 1992. The current study used this opportunity to test four hypotheses about LAT: LAT increased historically; decreases until the end of the female reproductive period (age 40 years); is thereafter a life form of its own without transition into co-residence; and at all ages is less stable than cohabitation and marriage. The results confirmed all four hypotheses.     

Sozialstrukturelle Interessenlagen und Parteipräferenz in Deutschland

Based on Allbus data, stability and change of the impact of social structurally defined interests on party preference in Germany is investigated. We use both traditional cleavage indicators like union membership or frequency of church attendance and further social structural characteristics like class identification, occupation or unemployment experience. We apply a two-level model with varying intercepts for the 16 Allbus surveys from 1980 to 2008. Beyond the expected results we observe some deviations from the stable relationship between social structural variables and party preference. (1) The younger generation of active Catholics prefers the Christian Democrats less than the older cohorts and the East German working class leaned towards this party immediately after unification. (2) Union members got alienated from the Social Democrats since 2004 due to reforms of unemployment benefits for people being out of work for a longer period of time with the consequence that Die Linke could profit from this trend in West and East Germany. (3) This left socialist party and its forerunner, the PDS, has always been the preferred party of people with unemployment experience. (4) The Greens and the Liberal Party are enduringly supported by specific social groups, the Greens by the social and cultural service class and the FDP by the self-employed, at least since this latter party ended the social liberal coalition with the SPD in 1982.     

Work & stress: Information

The aim of this study was to investigate whether psychosocial factors at work are related to low-back pain among nursing personnel. It was conducted as a short-term follow-up study of 200 Danish female nursing personnel, providing care for the elderly. Self-reported measures of psychosocial factors such as time pressure, emotional demands of clients, control and social support were obtained by questionnaire at baseline, while stress, physical exertion and low-back pain were reported by diary records made in two, three-day periods in the subsequent 6 months. The study examines the possible influence of psychosocial factors preceding low-back pain as well as stress and physical exertion reported simultaneously with low-back pain. Only stress was associated with low-back pain (Odds Ratio (OR)=2.3; Confidence Interval (CI)=1.3-3.9) while neither physical exertion or any of the psychosocial factors were related to low-back pain. A possible pathway connecting emotional demands of clients to low-back pain through the mediation of stress was suggested.     

Rationing in the presence of baselines

We analyze a general model of rationing in which agents have baselines, in addition to claims against the (insufficient) endowment of the good to be allocated. Many real-life problems fit this general model (e.g., bankruptcy with prioritized claims, resource allocation in the public health care sector, water distribution in drought periods). We introduce (and characterize) a natural class of allocation methods for this model. Any method within the class is associated with a rule in the standard rationing model, and we show that if the latter obeys some focal properties, the former obeys them too.     

The effect of career exploration on subsequent training performance

In recent models of training effectiveness, it has been proposed that career exploration predicts training outcome variables such as training performance. Implementing the Career Exploration Survey developed by Stumpf and colleagues (1983), the present study explored the impact of sixteen dimensions of career exploration on subsequent training performance. A total of 145 call centre agents participated in the present study. Results demonstrated that four dimensions of career exploration predicted subsequent training performance. More specifically, trainees who (a) scored high on focused career exploration, (b) were more satisfied with information, (c) reported a higher internal search instrumentality, and (d) reported a lower external search instrumentality achieved higher training performance scores. Implications for theory, practice and future research are discussed.