Bayesian sample-size determination for one and two Poisson rate parameters with applications to quality control

We formulate Bayesian approaches to the problems of determining the required sample size for Bayesian interval estimators of a predetermined length for a single Poisson rate, for the difference between two Poisson rates, and for the ratio of two Poisson rates. We demonstrate the efficacy of our Bayesian-based sample-size determination method with two real-data quality-control examples and compare the results to frequentist sample-size determination methods.     

Predicting the quality of life in the United States

A principal components analysis performed by David M. Smith on 47 U.S. state level indicators of social well-being yielded several components. The first two of these are socio-economic well-being and social pathology. Structural hypotheses are offered to explain state differences in these components. The structural variables condensed by a principal components analysis of state political, economic and social structure measures are differentiation, flexibility-rigidity, and progressive industrialization. These, along with several population measures, determine a substantial part of the variance in the two measures of social well-being.     

Bayesian binary segmentation procedure for detecting streakiness in sports

Summary.  When an individual player or team enjoys periods of good form, and when these occur, is a widely observed phenomenon typically called 'streakiness'. It is interesting to assess which team is a streaky team, or who is a streaky player in sports. Such competitors might have a large number of successes during some periods and few or no successes during other periods. Thus, their success rate is not constant over time. We provide a Bayesian binary segmentation procedure for locating changepoints and the associated success rates simultaneously for these competitors. The procedure is based on a series of nested hypothesis tests each using the Bayes factor or the Bayesian information criterion. At each stage, we only need to compare a model with one changepoint with a model based on a constant success rate. Thus, the method circumvents the computational complexity that we would normally face in problems with an unknown number of changepoints. We apply the procedure to data corresponding to sports teams and players from basketball, golf and baseball.     

Family policy in Korea

In Korea, family policy as a public policy gained interest in the 1980s, when the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs (since January 1995 the Ministry of Health and Welfare) renamed the Maternal and Child Bureau the Family Welfare Bureau. This paper first presents a brief overview of the traditional family system and values in Korea and examines changes in economic and social indicators, changes in family functions and roles, and changes in attitudes toward family that have occurred following industrialization and urbanization. The paper then briefly explains some of the problems Korean families face today. It next examines the Family Planning Program and its results. Finally, it turns to an examination and critique of the policies and programs administered by the Family Welfare Bureau.Yeonoak Baik is a Family Advocacy Therapist for the 8th U.S. Army c/o Commander, 43rd Surgical Hospital (MA), ATTN: EAMC-SH-FAP, Room D-108, Unit #15190, APO AP, 96271-0126. She works in Korea with U.S. military soldiers and their dependents. Her research interests include child welfare, single-parent families, and domestic violence. Her MSW was received from the School of Social Work, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.Her research interests include children of divorced families, social welfare policy, and social work administration in Korea. She received her Ph.D. in Social Welfare at Seoul National University in Korea.     

Perceptions of drinking among Hispanic college students: how qualitative research can inform the development of collegiate alcohol abuse prevention programs

Alcohol abuse on college campuses continues to be a significant public health issue and health promotion strategies are being directed at changing the culture of collegiate drinking. From a qualitative research perspective such efforts remain uniformed since this area of research is currently dominated by large-scale surveys that illuminate little regarding undergraduate perceptions of alcohol use. This study describes results conducted on perceptions of drinking among college students, and discusses the implications these results may have for developing collegiate alcohol abuse prevention programs.     

EDITING A LARGE-SCALE DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY–THE EXPERIENCE OF THE MELBOURNE FAMILY SURVEY1

This paper discusses the editing procedures for a survey on family formation conducted in Melbourne during 1971. Examples are given of the incidence and types of inconsistencies revealed during the editing stage in the mainly quantitative variables concerning childbearing, numbers of children, and the demographic characteristics of the children. The principal point emphasized is the need for automatic detection and manual correction of coding deficiencies in a survey of this type, i.e. an intensive, “once-off” survey, with a sample size of a few thousand, from which detailed and complex analyses are planned.