On the ‘Urbanness’ of Metropolitan Areas: Testing the Homogeneity Assumption, 1970–2000

In recent decades, population dynamics, have made definitions of what localities are rural or urban somewhat unclear. The vast majority of demographic work has simply used metropolitan classifications with various forms of a non-metropolitan residual (e.g., adjacent to metro versus non-adjacent). The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) periodically redefines metropolitan areas, which makes temporal comparisons difficult. In fact, some demographers have offered the idea that, due to these shifting reclassifications, the so-called “rural rebound” is a misnomer, in that non-metropolitan counties that transitioned to metropolitan status were, in fact, already more ‘urban’ than those that did not become reclassified as metropolitan (Johnson et al 2005). This argument depends largely on the assumption of homogeneity in rural or urban ‘character’ in those counties. Following arguments by others (Wilkinson 1991; Isserman 2001; Bogue 1950), we take population and land use into account to examine whether these transitional counties were more or less urban than comparable others, all at the county level for the contiguous 48 states for 1970–2000. Our results show that adjacent non-metropolitan counties that were later reclassified as metropolitan were indeed characterized by a larger population and heavier urban land cover than those not making this transition. However, the results also show that metropolitan areas were also quite heterogeneous in terms of traditionally rural activities. A discussion of the homogeneity assumption in demographers’ conceptualization of metropolitan areas is included.     

Acceptability of Sexually Explicit Images in HIV Prevention Messages Targeting Men Who Have Sex With Men

Sexually explicit media (SEM) have been used in HIV-prevention advertisements to engage men who have sex with men (MSM) and to communicate content. These advertisements exist within larger discourses, including a dominant heteronormative culture and a growing homonormative culture. Cognizant of these hegemonic cultures, this analysis examined the acceptable level of sexual explicitness in prevention advertisements. Seventy-nine MSM participated in 13 online focus groups, which were part of a larger study of SEM. Three macro themes—audience, location, and community representation—emerged from the analysis, as did the influence of homonormativity on the acceptability of SEM in HIV-prevention messages.     

He said, she said: The gender wage gap according to self and proxy reports in the Current Population Survey

Roughly half the labor force data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) are provided by proxy respondents, and since 1979, men’s reliance on proxies has dropped dramatically while women’s reliance on proxies has increased. Few authors, however, have examined how combining these first-hand and second-hand reports may influence our understanding of long-term economic trends. We exploit the outgoing rotation group structure of the CPS by matching individual records one year apart, and we find that self-reported wages are higher than proxy-reported wages even after controlling for all time invariant characteristics. Furthermore, we find that changes in the use of proxy respondents by men and women since 1979 have made current estimates of the gender wage gap larger than they would have been without changes in reporting status. This suggests that the gender wage gap has closed more than previously estimated. We recommend that researchers combine self and proxy responses with great care, especially when analyzing time trends or making gender comparisons.     

The potential for collaborative agri-environment schemes in England: Can a well-designed collaborative approach address farmers’ concerns with current schemes?

There is increasing recognition that whilst agri-environment schemes in England have had discernable benefits, their success in relation to certain species and resources has been inhibited by the piecemeal implementation of Environmental Stewardship (ES) on the basis of single farm agreements. In this paper we examine the receptivity of farmers to the idea of landscape-scale, collaborative agri-environment schemes (cAES) based on semi-structured interviewing in three English case-study areas. Using qualitative sociocultural interpretation we argue that a lack of communication and mutual understanding between farmers; a cultural imperative for independence and timeliness, and; alternative interpretations of risk amongst farmers present potential barriers to cAES. We also argue, however, that if designed appropriately, cAES have the potential to overcome certain concerns that farmers hold about the existing ES schemes. In particular, cAES are likely to gain support from farmers where they are seen to offer greater flexibility; scope for farmer involvement in scheme design; locally targeted and clearly defined aims, and; demonstrable benefits that can be monitored as a record of success. We provide policy recommendations and suggest that cAES have the potential to deliver greater environmental benefits, whilst at the same time encouraging farmers’ participation in, and satisfaction with, agri-environment schemes.     

Yet another inquiry into the trustworthiness of eighteenth-century London's Bills of Mortality

This is an enquiry into how eighteenth-century London's Bills of Mortality were compiled. It concludes that while they remain tolerably accurate in aggregate, particularly when considered over a number of years, they are liable to be very misleading if particular localities or parishes are considered. They are a record of registered burials-not deaths-of most of those who had been baptised as Anglicans, so they omit some burial grounds within London, and some dissenters. Crucially, they are most misleading guides to those who had died in one parish but whose family chose to have them buried in another. Several London parishes deliberately undercut their neighbours by charging lower burial fees to attract custom; others opened extra-parochial burial grounds. St Martin-in-the-Fields offers an example of the latter from 1806, but the scale of the new burial ground was not large and it was mainly confined to those who had died in the workhouse. Much more significant was the neighbouring parish of St Anne Soho, which at its peak period in the 1760s to the 1790s was alone handling the equivalent of between 2 and 5 per cent of all Anglican burials within the total area of London's Bills of Mortality. This was only one, though perhaps a particularly egregious, London parish, while the export of corpses to one's erstwhile 'home' parish demonstrates why the Bills cannot be trusted in their detailed geography, as well as providing a warning to all English population historians confronted with a sudden fall or rise in their burial totals.     

Effects of Brief Messages About Antiretroviral Therapy and Condom Use Benefits Among Black and Latino MSM in Three U.S. Cities

This pilot study examined effects of HIV prevention messages about self and partner benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and condom effectiveness on increased intentions for behavior change. Data were from Messages4Men, a study examining prevention messages among 320 HIV-positive and 605 HIV-negative Black and Latino MSM. Men completed a computer-based assessment after message exposure, and multivariable models controlled for risky sex and demographics. A majority of HIV-positive men reported increased intentions for ART use; 22% reported partner benefit information was new. HIV-positive men with a detectable viral load had significantly greater adjusted odds of reporting intentions for ART use. Over half of HIV-negative MSM reported ART benefit information was new, and 88% reported increased intentions to discuss ART use with infected partners. Black MSM anticipated they would increase condom use in response to the self and partner benefit messages. Tailored messages on benefits of ART are needed for MSM.     

THE EFFECTS OF JOB RELOCATION ON SPOUSAL CAREERS: EVIDENCE FROM MILITARY CHANGE OF STATION MOVES

We investigate the impact of military job relocation on spousal earnings and employment by creating a unique longitudinal database that tracks over 900,000 military spouses over the period 2001–2012, based on data from two administrative sources—military records on personnel and their dependents, and Social Security earnings records. This database allows us to estimate the effects of military change of station moves controlling for some key observable characteristics of the service‐member and household and controlling for individual spouse fixed effects. We find that military moves cause a substantial decline in spousal earnings in the year of the move, on the order of $2,100, or 14% of average spousal earnings. Moves also increase the likelihood that the spouse has no earnings for the year. We find larger earnings reductions for moves that cross state lines, and for older spouses, male spouses, and those with young children. The career costs persist over time and spouses continue to experience significantly lower earnings 2 years after the move. This persistence, combined with the typical military member experiencing a change of station move every 2 or 3 years, may substantially limit the ability of military spouses to accumulate human capital over time. (JEL H56, R23, J45, J16, J64)     

MARCH MADNESS? UNDERREACTION TO HOT AND COLD HANDS IN NCAA BASKETBALL

The hot hand bias is the widely documented bias toward overestimation of positive serial correlation in sequential events. We test for the hot hand bias in a novel real‐world context, the seeding of National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) basketball tournament teams. That is, we examine whether teams that perform relatively well heading into “March Madness” are seeded too high, and/or teams with poor recent performance are seeded too low. The seeds are determined by a 10‐member committee that only has implicit incentives, but these incentives are still substantial as the committee's decisions are highly scrutinized by the media, fans, and other stakeholders. We find that, contra the hot hand bias, the committee underreacts to signals of momentum heading into the NCAA tournament. Various results indicate this behavior can be attributed to both: (1) inattention to relatively detailed information indicating momentum; and (2) under‐appreciation of the predictive value of this information. Betting markets incorporate this information efficiently, but neglect some additional information that is predictive of winning NCAA tournament games but not of beating the spread. We note that the NCAA tournament has been highly popular and lucrative partly due to the “madness” (high frequency of wins by lower‐seeded teams), which the bias we document contributes to, making the persistence of bias less surprising. (JEL D83, L83)