MARCH MADNESS? UNDERREACTION TO HOT AND COLD HANDS IN NCAA BASKETBALL

The hot hand bias is the widely documented bias toward overestimation of positive serial correlation in sequential events. We test for the hot hand bias in a novel real‐world context, the seeding of National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) basketball tournament teams. That is, we examine whether teams that perform relatively well heading into “March Madness” are seeded too high, and/or teams with poor recent performance are seeded too low. The seeds are determined by a 10‐member committee that only has implicit incentives, but these incentives are still substantial as the committee's decisions are highly scrutinized by the media, fans, and other stakeholders. We find that, contra the hot hand bias, the committee underreacts to signals of momentum heading into the NCAA tournament. Various results indicate this behavior can be attributed to both: (1) inattention to relatively detailed information indicating momentum; and (2) under‐appreciation of the predictive value of this information. Betting markets incorporate this information efficiently, but neglect some additional information that is predictive of winning NCAA tournament games but not of beating the spread. We note that the NCAA tournament has been highly popular and lucrative partly due to the “madness” (high frequency of wins by lower‐seeded teams), which the bias we document contributes to, making the persistence of bias less surprising. (JEL D83, L83)     

Voluntary After‐School Alcohol and Drug Programs for Middle School Youth: If You Build it Right,They Will Come

Few after‐school programs target alcohol and other drug (AOD) use because it is difficult to encourage a diverse group of youth to voluntarily attend. The current study describes CHOICE, a voluntary after‐school program which targeted AOD use among middle school students. Over 4,000 students across eight schools completed surveys and 15% participated in CHOICE. Analyses indicated that there were some differences between CHOICE participants and nonparticipants. For example, African American and multiethnic students were more likely to attend. Past month alcohol users were more likely to initially attend, and marijuana users were more likely to continue attendance. Thus, CHOICE reached students of different racial and ethnic groups and attracted higher risk youth who may not typically obtain prevention services.     

Relationships Between Perceived Family Gambling and Peer Gambling and Adolescent Problem Gambling and Binge-Drinking

The study systematically examined the relative relationships between perceived family and peer gambling and adolescent at-risk/problem gambling and binge-drinking. It also determined the likelihood of at-risk/problem gambling and binge-drinking as a function of the number of different social groups with perceived gambling. A multi-site high-school survey assessed gambling, alcohol use, presence of perceived excessive peer gambling (peer excess—PE), and family gambling prompting concern (family concern—FC) in 2750 high-school students. Adolescents were separately stratified into: (1) low-risk, at-risk, and problem/pathological gambling groups; and, (2) non-binge-drinking, low-frequency-binge-drinking, and high-frequency-binge-drinking groups. Multinomial logistic regression showed that relative to each other, FC and PE were associated with greater likelihoods of at-risk and problem/pathological gambling. However, only FC was associated with binge-drinking. Logistic regression revealed that adolescents who endorsed either FC or PE alone, compared to no endorsement, were more likely to have at-risk and problem/pathological gambling, relative to low-risk gambling. Adolescents who endorsed both FC and PE, compared to PE alone, were more likely to have problem/pathological gambling relative to low-risk and at-risk gambling. Relative to non-binge-drinking adolescents, those who endorsed both FC and PE were more likely to have low- and high-frequency-binge-drinking compared to FC alone or PE alone, respectively. Family and peer gambling individually contribute to adolescent at-risk/problem gambling and binge-drinking. Strategies that target adolescents as well as their closely affiliated family and peer members may be an important step towards prevention of harm-associated levels of gambling and alcohol use in youths.     

Separating the Harmful Versus Beneficial Effects of Marital Disruptions on Children

Although a marital disruption can certainly be harmful for some children, it might be beneficial to other children. Analyses on how children are affected by marital disruptions typically capture the average estimated effects (or associations) of a disruption on an outcome. Thus, the harmful effects of the disruption on some children are being averaged with the neutral and beneficial effects on other children. This could mute the estimated effect, and it could prevent the detection of significant harmful (or beneficial) effects. Using achievement test scores and an index of behavioral problems in a first-difference framework, I find evidence for the standard approach having muted estimated effects and failing to detect significant effects when the same data produce significant isolated harmful effects.     

An Investigation into the People-Sequential Heuristic Method of Group Formation

This study investigates the people-sequential heuristic method of group formation as proposed by Beheshtian-Ardekani and Mahmood [2] and examined by Muller [9]. Responding to Muller's call for continued research on this topic, we first replicate the seven hypothesis investigations presented in that study and then consider several additional hypotheses designed to more fully examine the value of the process to the group members themselves. The results of this study indicate that the balanced groups assignment method is not effective as a sole means of increasing learning or satisfaction with the project. Of the twelve hypothesized relationships, which, if supported, would favor the use of balanced groups over randomly assigned groups, only one was supported. These findings and their relationship to group learning theory are discussed.     

Requests, Blocking Moves, and Rational (Inter)action in Survey Introductions

We draw on conversation analytic methods and research to explicate the interactional phenomenon of requesting in general and the specific case of requesting participation in survey interviews. Recent work on survey participation has given much attention to leverage-saliency theory, but has not engaged how the key concepts of this theory are exhibited in the actual unfolding interaction of interviewers and potential respondents. We do so using digitally recorded and transcribed calls to recruit participation in the 2004 Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. We describe how potential respondents present interactional environments that are relatively discouraging or encouraging, and how, in response, interviewers may be relatively cautious or presumptive in their requesting actions. We consider how the ability of interviewers to tailor their behavior to their interactional environment can affect whether the introduction reaches the point at which a request to participate is made, the form that this request takes, and the sample person's response. Our analysis contributes to understanding how we might use insights from the analysis of interaction to increase cooperation with requests to participate in surveys.     

Later first marriage and marital success

The research reported here used measures of marital success based on both marital survival and marital quality to assess how well first marriages entered at relatively late ages fare in comparison with those entered younger. Analysis of data from five American data sets indicated that the later marriages fare very well in survival but rather poorly in quality. The greatest indicated likelihood of being in an intact marriage of the highest quality is among those who married at ages 22-25, net of the estimated effects of time since first marriage and several variables that might commonly affect age at marriage and marital outcomes. The negative relationship beyond the early to mid-twenties between age at marriage and marital success is likely to be at least partially spurious, and thus it would be premature to conclude that the optimal time for first marriage for most persons is ages 22-25. However, the findings do suggest that most persons have little or nothing to gain in the way of marital success by deliberately postponing marriage beyond the mid-twenties.     

Imagining young adults’ citizenship in Russia: from fatalism to affective ideas of belonging*

This article contributes to a comparative analysis of the meaning of citizenship for youth. Young people, traditionally seen as ‘incomplete’ citizens in the process of transition to adulthood, possess their own everyday understanding of what it means to be a citizen in the contemporary world. Based on empirical qualitative material collected in two Russian cities, it is argued that there is a disjunction among young Russians between the ideal-typical perception of citizenship and the practical realisation of it. Particular emphasis is put on the ‘emotional’ understanding of citizenship by Russian youth involving the experience of particular feelings towards fellow citizens and the country.     

Helping Children Help: The Relation between Maternal Scaffolding and Children's Early Help

Theory and empirical research suggest that parental scaffolding of children's participation in chores may contribute to the development of early helping. Sixty mother–child dyads with toddlers between 18 and 24 months of age were assessed on two measures of scaffolding (during a cleanup chore; reading an emotionally laden book together). Children's helping was assessed in five tasks with an experimenter, and children were also assessed for social approach to an unfamiliar adult as a measure of sociability, and for internal state language as a measure of social understanding. Both mothers' scaffolding of everyday helping and children's sociability uniquely predicted individual differences in children's helping. Thus, individual differences in children's helping appear early, and are associated with both temperament and with parents' efforts to support and encourage young children's helpfulness.     

Using anchoring vignettes to assess group differences in general self-rated health

This article addresses a potentially serious problem with the widely used self-rated health (SRH) survey item: that different groups have systematically different ways of using the item's response categories. Analyses based on unadjusted SRH may thus yield misleading results. The authors evaluate anchoring vignettes as a possible solution to this problem. Using vignettes specifically designed to calibrate the SRH item and data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS; N = 2,625), the authors show how demographic and health-related factors, including sex and education, predict differences in rating styles. Such differences, when not adjusted for statistically, may be sufficiently large to lead to mistakes in rank orderings of groups. In the present sample, unadjusted models show that women have better SRH than men, but this difference disappears in models adjusting for women's greater health-optimism. Anchoring vignettes appear a promising tool for improving intergroup comparability of SRH.