Evaluation of program success for programs with multiple trials in binary outcomes

A late‐stage clinical development program typically contains multiple trials. Conventionally, the program's success or failure may not be known until the completion of all trials. Nowadays, interim analyses are often used to allow evaluation for early success and/or futility for each individual study by calculating conditional power, predictive power and other indexes. It presents a good opportunity for us to estimate the probability of program success (POPS) for the entire clinical development earlier. The sponsor may abandon the program early if the estimated POPS is very low and therefore permit resource savings and reallocation to other products. We provide a method to calculate probability of success (POS) at an individual study level and also POPS for clinical programs with multiple trials in binary outcomes. Methods for calculating variation and confidence measures of POS and POPS and timing for interim analysis will be discussed and evaluated through simulations. We also illustrate our approaches on historical data retrospectively from a completed clinical program for depression. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Human nature and economic policy: lessons for the transition economies

Both economic regulation in market economies and state ownership and control of the means of production in socialist economies have been interpreted as means of protecting people from economic exploitation by the owners of capital. In this paper, I argue against this interpretation, suggesting that both sets of institutions are more plausibly viewed as protecting people from destructive competition amongst themselves.     

Adolescent Religiosity and School Contexts*

Objectives. Schools serve as the primary social organizations for adolescents, structuring their lives and conveying a variety of skills, norms, and values, but relatively little is known about how schools influence the development of religious belief, attitudes, and behavior during adolescence. We explore how schools' religious norms, coupled with adolescents' pursuit of social status through conformity, affect public and private religiosity. Methods. Employing data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), we use multilevel modeling to examine the impact of school context on adolescents' public and private religiosity. Results. We find that school norms are influential in shaping both public religious expressions and private devotional activities, but pursuit of social status is a motivation for change across religious contexts only of public religious activity. The effect of social status as a motivator of religious change was moderated by the strength of the adolescent's identification with the school, especially for private religiosity. Conclusions. Schools play a key role in the social development of adolescents, and students' religious beliefs and behaviors are influenced systematically and observably by the type of religious climate within the school.     

Five tumultuous years in Australian child protection: little progress

In an article published in 2002, one of the authors of this paper offered an analysis of the Australian child protection data from 1999 to 2000 and raised questions about the effectiveness of mandatory reporting. Recently, child protection data for 2003–2004 has been released. This provides an opportunity to re‐examine some child protection issues and the effectiveness of mandatory reporting 5 years on. These have been tumultuous years. Each state and territory has held major inquiries into this area of practice and, as a result, significant organizational changes have taken place and new resources are being made available. Nevertheless, questions about the effectiveness of child protection services remain. There is continuing doubt about the value of comprehensive reporting systems.     

The Identification of Behaviour Disorder within the Community

In the absence of a clinical definition of Behaviour Disorder, those termed ‘Behaviourally Disordered’ are often considered unsuitable for psychiatric servicing and many end up inappropriately contained by the correctional system. The working definitions of 213 South Australian health and welfare professionals from six client areas (child/adolescent, psychiatric, intellectually disabled, brain-damaged, correctional and general) were surveyed. Respondents generally saw Behaviour Disorder as a recognisable disorder, involving both aggressive, disruptive behaviour and deficits in social adaptation. Perceptions of its presentation varied across client groups and across professional roles. The results highlighted a need for specialised community servicing for this group.