Bridges between deterministic and probabilistic models for binary data

For the analysis of binary data, various deterministic models have been proposed, which are generally simpler to fit and easier to understand than probabilistic models. We claim that corresponding to any deterministic model is an implicit stochastic model in which the deterministic model fits imperfectly, with errors occurring at random. In the context of binary data, we consider a model in which the probability of error depends on the model prediction. We show how to fit this model using a stochastic modification of deterministic optimization schemes.The advantages of fitting the stochastic model explicitly (rather than implicitly, by simply fitting a deterministic model and accepting the occurrence of errors) include quantification of uncertainty in the deterministic model’s parameter estimates, better estimation of the true model error rate, and the ability to check the fit of the model nontrivially. We illustrate this with a simple theoretical example of item response data and with empirical examples from archeology and the psychology of choice.     

Efficiency of Large Private Value Auctions

We consider discriminatory and uniform price auctions for multiple identical units of a good. Players have private values, possibly asymmetrically distributed and for multiple units. Our setting allows for aggregate uncertainty about demand and supply. In this setting, equlibria generally will be inefficient. Despite this, we show that such auctions become arbitrarily close to efficient if they are “large,” and use this to derive an asymptotic characterization of revenue and bidding behavior.     

Longitudinal Associations Between Adolescents' Bullying‐Related Indirect Defending,Outsider Behavior,and Peer‐Group Status

During adolescence, youth become more likely to avoid involvement in witnessed bullying and less likely to support victims. It is unknown whether—and how—these bystander behaviors (i.e., outsider behavior and indirect defending) are associated with adolescents' peer‐group status (i.e., popularity and social acceptance) over time. Cross‐lagged path modeling was used to examine these longitudinal associations in a sample of 313 Dutch adolescents (M_age‐T1 = 10.3 years). The results showed that status longitudinally predicted behavior, rather than that behavior predicted status. Specifically, unpopularity predicted outsider behavior and social acceptance predicted indirect defending. These findings suggest that a positive peer‐group status can trigger adolescents' provictim stance. However, adolescents may also strategically avoid involvement in witnessed bullying to keep a low social profile.     

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent‐Based Model Approach

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent‐based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss‐reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low‐probability/high‐impact risks.     

Measuring Health: A Multivariate Approach

We examined the health status of 171 countries by employing factor analysis on various national health indicators for the period 2000–2005 to construct two new measures on health. The first measure is based on the health of individuals and the second on (the quality of) the health services. Our measures differ substantially from indicators used in previous studies on health and also lead to different rankings of countries. As rankings are not that informative without further information, we analyzed the distance between each country and the sample mean. Differences between countries are much more pronounced for our measure on health services than for our measure on the health of individuals. Using cluster analysis, we classified the countries in six homogenous groups.     

On the Compatibility of Islam and Gender Equality

Although the Muslim world is sometimes depicted as a homogeneous civilization lacking democracy and gender equality, Muslim countries show tremendous economic, political and cultural variation. In this paper, this variation is used to gain insight into the determinants of women’s labor market participation (LMP) in the Muslim world. We use data on 45 Muslim countries and apply SEM models to determine effects of modernization, democracy, cultural background, and state Islamization on women’s participation in the formal economy (absolute LMP) and on the share of women in the labor force (relative LMP). Women’s absolute LMP is higher in Muslim countries with higher levels of economic development and in the oil-exporting countries. For women’s relative LMP, practical democracy (the degree to which people actively participate in the system) takes in a key position. It has a strong positive effect on women’s relative LMP and mediates the effects of economic development (positive), formal democratic structures (positive) and state Islamization (negative) on women’s relative LMP. Results indicate that in these countries modernization may lead to empowerment of women by increasing their absolute LMP, but that for attaining gender equality the political opportunity structures is most important.     

Politicization of corporations and their environment: Corporations’ social license to operate in a polarized and mediatized society

Societies are increasingly characterized by polarization and fragmentation on a variety of socio-political issues. With the heightened social visibility of corporations, as a result of processes of mediatization, firms are pressured to engage with such social issues that are part of broader political discourses. Against the backdrop of these broad socio-political shifts, this study conceptually addresses the contribution of public relations to understanding the politicization of corporations and their environment. We argue that corporations have become inherently intertwined with their mediatized and polarized socio-political surroundings. As a result, corporations are increasingly pressured to speak out and take a stance on social issues to engage with their environment and renew their social license to operate (SLO) in a context characterized by political divides. By relying on concepts like issue arenas and corporate political advocacy, we argue that corporations can use public relations to publicly promote one ideal over another, by being guided by the corporation’s own intrinsic values and moral standpoints rather than efforts to balance competing interests of multiple stakeholders.     

The Bologna process in European and post-Soviet higher education: institutional legacies and policy adoption

This paper addresses the puzzle of the unlikeliness of the implementation of elements of the Bologna Process agenda in Europe and post-Soviet higher education systems. Following mainstream policy science theories, the policy initiative would be qualified as “prone to failure”, but surprisingly many governments took up the challenge to develop regulations and guidelines and to change the structures of their higher education systems. Looking at the adoption of Bologna process elements in various countries – east and west – I will be able to point at factors that contribute to explaining why and to what extent countries engaged with the process and hence to contribute to the literature on Europeanisation and policy adoption.     

Human rights at the heart of the social work curriculum

ABSTRACT

Social work policy and practice all over the world continue to face the impact of the neoliberal agenda. Similarly, social work education has been subject to the economic and political changes, with an increasing emphasis on a discourse of ‘evidence-based practice’. However, it is the core of social work programs in higher education to initiate students in the fundamental values of social work, as they are recognized in the global definition of social work. In order to prepare future social workers for their assignment, human rights should be given an explicit place in the social work curricula at Universities and Universities of Applied Sciences.

For human rights to gain more attention in social work programs in higher education, a Manifesto was written by lecturers’ social work in the Netherlands and Flanders, with a 5-point program to include human rights in the social work curricula. In this article, we elaborate on the five objectives that are presented in the Manifesto. Throughout the paper, we introduce small ‘case examples’ of how human rights can be integrated in education. These experiences show the importance of developing a particular social work perspective on human rights that is found in the idea of ‘human rights from below.’