Determinants of Infant Mortality in Older ASEAN Economies

Infant mortality in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been declining, yet disparities remain between the nations. This paper therefore explores the determinants of infant mortality in the older ASEAN-4 economies, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Error Correction Model framework. The key findings of the study are: First, there is evidence of long-run relationships among infant mortality, education, female fertility, income and access to healthcare. Second, the determinants of infant mortality vary between countries. Female fertility emerged as the main determinant of infant mortality in Malaysia, while access to healthcare matter for infant mortality in Indonesia, and to a lesser extent for the Philippines. The income effect is significant for reducing infant mortality in Malaysia, while female education is important for Indonesia and Thailand. Third, the speed of adjustment of infant mortality rate is comparatively low in ASEAN-4.     

Quality of Life and Personality Development: A Reply to Land and Michalos

Land and Michael’s (this issue) offer an excellent overview of the evolving status of the social indicators movement, with thoughtful recommendations for future research. I argue that QOL researchers may want to consider paying increased attention to advances in the science of personality development, such as those articulated in McAdams' (The art and science of personality development. Guilford Press, New York, 2015), in conceptualizing comprehensive assessments of the QOL. Specifically, McAdams' synthesis of the literature on personal agency should provide a useful beginning for developmentally-informed discussions of the potential evolving nature of QOL and its antecedents, correlates, and consequences, with the goal of ensuring greater relevance of QOL evaluations to all age groups.     

The Ex-Ante Evaluation of Achieving Sustainable Development Goals

This paper describes the methodology and main results from an overall assessment on future achievement of sustainable development goals. The proposed approach consists of a model-based, looking forward composite sustainable development index—FEEM sustainability index—projected to the future. It represents a first experiment to reproduce the future dynamics of sustainable development indicators over time and worldwide and to assess future sustainability under different scenarios. The assessment presented here is relevant under different viewpoints. First, it has a very broad nature in terms of both geographical coverage and meaningfulness: it considers the multi-dimensional structure of sustainable development by combining relevant indicators belonging to economic, social and environmental pillars for the whole world. Second, the modelling framework to compute future trends of indicators relies upon a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model. This is an ideal tool to look simultaneously at the development of many indicators, their potential interactions and trade-offs, and more in general to the consequences of economic development and/or policies aiming to increase performance in one or more indicators; it allows measuring the overall sustainability under alternative scenarios, across countries and over time. Finally, regarding the construction of the composite indicator, the application of fuzzy measures and Choquet integral increases substantially the model capability allowing taking into account the interactions that exist among the three main pillars of sustainability and the considered indicators.     

Child Poverty Among Hong Kong Ethnic Minorities

This paper analyzes the data from the Population Census of 2011 to identify the characteristics of poor ethnic minority groups in Hong Kong and the factors that are associated with child poverty among these ethnic minorities. The results show that the child poverty level varies between different ethnic groups and that ethnic minorities from developing nations are likely to have a higher poverty level. In particular, Pakistani children have the highest poverty rate among all ethnic groups. The results also show that Pakistani, Nepalese, and Mixed (Chinese and Asian) nationalities have a higher child poverty rate than that of Chinese individuals who constitute the majority of the Hong Kong population. The main reason for this is that, unlike their Chinese counterparts, some of these ethnic minority households have not benefited from their own human capital or their length of exposure in the local society in Hong Kong. And even if they have benefited, the positive impact of these factors on ethnic minority households was much weaker compared to that of Chinese households. These results suggest that ethnic minorities need to be categorized as a separate group in order to assess their specific needs, and assimilation policies, especially support on Chinese language learning, need to be an integral part of the government’s poverty reduction strategy to reduce child poverty among ethnic minorities.     

Financially Overextended: College Attendance as a Contributor to Foreclosures During the Great Recession

Although subprime mortgage lending and unemployment were largely responsible for the wave of foreclosures during the Great Recession, additional sources of financial risk may have exacerbated the crisis. We hypothesize that many parents sending children to college were financially overextended and vulnerable to foreclosure as the economy contracted. With commuting zone panel data from 2006 to 2011, we show that increasing rates of college attendance across the income distribution in one year predict a foreclosure rate increase in subsequent years, net of fixed characteristics and changes in employment, refinance debt, house prices, and 19-year-old population size. We find similar evidence of college-related foreclosure risk using longitudinal household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Our findings uncover a previously overlooked dimension of the foreclosure crisis, and highlight mortgage insecurity as an inadvertent consequence of parental investment in higher education.     

Cigarette Smoking and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Adult Mortality in the United States

This study illuminates the association between cigarette smoking and adult mortality in the contemporary United States. Recent studies have estimated smoking-attributable mortality using indirect approaches or with sample data that are not nationally representative and that lack key confounders. We use the 1990–2011 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files to estimate relative risks of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for current and former smokers compared with never smokers. We examine causes of death established as attributable to smoking as well as additional causes that appear to be linked to smoking but have not yet been declared by the U.S. Surgeon General to be caused by smoking. Mortality risk is substantially elevated among smokers for established causes and moderately elevated for additional causes. We also decompose the mortality disadvantage among smokers by cause of death and estimate the number of smoking-attributable deaths for the U.S. adult population ages 35+, net of sociodemographic and behavioral confounders. The elevated risks translate to 481,887 excess deaths per year among current and former smokers compared with never smokers, 14 % to 15 % of which are due to the additional causes. The additional causes of death contribute to the health burden of smoking and should be considered in future studies of smoking-attributable mortality. This study demonstrates that smoking-attributable mortality must remain a top population health priority in the United States and makes several contributions to further underscore the human costs of this tragedy that has ravaged American society for more than a century.     

Destroyed by Slavery? Slavery and African American Family Formation Following Emancipation

This study introduces a new sample that links people and families across 1860, 1880, and 1900 census data to explore the intergenerational impact of slavery on black families in the United States. Slaveholding—the number of slaves owned by a single farmer or planter—is used as a proxy for experiences during slavery. Slave family structures varied systematically with slaveholding sizes. Enslaved children on smaller holdings were more likely to be members of single-parent or divided families. On larger holdings, however, children tended to reside in nuclear families. In 1880, a child whose mother had been on a farm with five slaves was 49 % more likely to live in a single-parent household than a child whose mother had been on a farm with 15 slaves. By 1900, slaveholding no longer had an impact. However, children whose parents lived in single-parent households were themselves more likely to live in single-parent households and to have been born outside marriage.     

Individual Uncertainty About Longevity

This article presents an assessment of individual uncertainty about longevity. A survey performed on 3,331 French people enables us to record several survival probabilities per individual. On this basis, we compute subjective life expectancies (SLE) and subjective uncertainty regarding longevity (SUL), the standard deviation of each individual’s subjective distribution of her or his own longevity. It is large and equal to more than 10 years for men and women. Its magnitude is comparable to the variability of longevity observed in life tables for individuals under 60, but it is smaller for those older than 60, which suggests use of private information by older respondents. Our econometric analysis confirms that individuals use private information—mainly their parents’ survival and longevity—to adjust their level of uncertainty. Finally, we find that SUL has a sizable impact, in addition to SLE, on risky behaviors: more uncertainty on longevity significantly decreases the probability of unhealthy lifestyles. Given that individual uncertainty about longevity affects prevention behavior, retirement decisions, and demand for long-term care insurance, these results have important implications for public policy concerning health care and retirement.     

Trends in the Motherhood Wage Penalty and Fatherhood Wage Premium for Low,Middle, and High Earners

Many studies have shown that women pay a wage penalty for motherhood, whereas men earn a wage premium for fatherhood. A few recent studies have used quantile regression to explore differences in the penalties across the wage distribution. The current study builds on this research and explores trends in the parenthood penalties and premiums from 1980 to 2014 for those at the bottom, middle, and top of the wage distribution. Analyses of data from the Current Population Survey show that the motherhood wage penalty decreased, whereas the fatherhood wage premium increased. Unconditional quantile regression models reveal that low-, middle-, and high-earning women paid similar motherhood wage penalties in the 1980s. The motherhood wage penalty began to decrease in the 1990s, but more so for high-earning women than for low-earning women. By the early 2010s, the motherhood wage penalty for high-earning women was eliminated, whereas low-earning women continued to pay a penalty. The fatherhood wage premium began to increase in the late 1990s, although again, more so for high-earning men than for low-earning men. By the early 2010s, high-earning men received a much larger fatherhood wage premium than low- or middle-earning men.     

From Privilege to Prevalence: Contextual Effects of Women’s Schooling on African Marital Timing

In Africa and elsewhere, educated women tend to marry later than their less-educated peers. Beyond being an attribute of individual women, education is also an aggregate phenomenon: the social meaning of a woman’s educational attainment depends on the educational attainments of her age-mates. Using data from 30 countries and 246 birth cohorts across sub-Saharan Africa, we investigate the impact of educational context (the percentage of women in a country cohort who ever attended school) on the relationship between a woman’s educational attainment and her marital timing. In contexts where access to education is prevalent, the marital timing of uneducated and highly educated women is more similar than in contexts where attending school is limited to a privileged minority. This across-country convergence is driven by uneducated women marrying later in high-education contexts, especially through lower rates of very early marriages. However, within countries over time, the marital ages of women from different educational groups tend to diverge as educational access expands. This within-country divergence is most often driven by later marriage among highly educated women, although divergence in some countries is driven by earlier marriage among women who never attended school.