Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Race and opportunity in a public alternative school

This qualitative case-study explores questions about the stratifying role of public alternative schools created for ‘at-risk’ youth by analyzing the school experience of students who attend a single continuation high school and the process of student enrollment and referral to that school. Drawing on the concept of whiteness as property, this article demonstrates how the continuation high school maintained and protected the property functions of whiteness through acts of symbolic violence and the systematic removal of non-white students from the school district’s mainstream high school. Instead, students were placed in a substandard alternative school lacking in material and intellectual resources. Furthermore, teachers, counselors, and administrative staff at the mainstream and continuation high schools alike drew upon the racial ideology of merit to rationalize the overrepresentation of non-white youths at the study school and to ‘deracialize’ the student referral process.     

A vision of social justice in intergroup dialogue

Intergroup dialogues (IGD) – face-to-face, structured interactions between people of different social identities – is one educational intervention used to foster engagement across differences and to promote social justice. Using an 18-month case study methodology, we examined the experiences of IGD students and facilitators at one campus to gain a deeper understanding of what happens in IGD, specifically how social justice is understood and cultivated. Findings suggest that the primacy and limitations of individual experience, the tension facilitators experience about stepping in to dialogue, and the confounding nature of comfort in IGD contribute to a dialogue experience that better addresses some aspects of social justice than others.     

Evaluating the Efficacy of a Mental Models Approach for Improving Occupational Chemical Risk Protection

Chemical risk protection in the workplace relies partly on informing workers about possible risks using material safety data sheets (MSDS). This article reports on phase 2 of a project (phase 1 reported in Cox et al.), which employed a mental models approach to improve on data sheets as communicative interventions for perchloroethylene in dry cleaning and rosin-based solder flux in the electronics industry within small businesses in the United Kingdom (small enterprises (SEs) < 25 employees in the workplace). It focuses on the efficacy of a multimethod evaluation strategy to assess (1) the capacity of a mental models approach to yield contextually relevant data for intervention design and (2) the effectiveness of the strategy itself in validating the mental models data. The evaluation was conducted using postal questionnaires and semi-structured verbal protocols to provide responses to the alternative intervention content and to prioritize risk messages. User discussion groups were then employed, particularly as a means of establishing whether contextual information could be obtained that would differ qualitatively from the kind elicited through individual (semi) structured methods. We conclude that the mental models approach as part of an iterative process including systematic multimethod evaluation is successful in supporting the design of relevant communications to the users of chemicals. The overall viability of communicative interventions in the context of health and safety in small businesses remains in question. Future research might aim to develop a more holistic approach to interventions in complex occupational contexts.     

How family-friendly work environments affect work/family conflict: A meta-analytic examination

We report a meta-analytic examination of the value of five facets of family-friendly work environments (FFWEs) in reducing work/family conflict (WFC). Cumulation of 38 studies (total N = 13,605) suggests that facets of FFWE may provide less assistance to workers in managing WFC than one may hope, as none explained more than seven percent of the variance in WFC. A family-friendly work culture seems most influential in reducing WFC. Importantly, spousal support and FFWEs explain different portions of variance in WFC, suggesting that FFWEs are uniquely valuable to workers in achieving work/ family balance. Implications for research and practice are discussed. When authors reported separate correlations for different subgroups (e.g., males and females), samples, administrations (as in a longitudinal study), or measures of the same construct, those correlations were examined separately. The studies included in this meta-analysis are listed in the references prefixed with an asterisk.     

The Relationship of Attachment Variables to Career Decision‐Making Self‐Efficacy and Fear of Commitment

The present study indicated that both attachment bonds and self‐rated attachment style were significantly related to fear of commitment and, to a lesser extent, career decision‐making self‐efficacy. Given previous research showing that fear of commitment is related to career indecisiveness and “floundering,” the possible importance of attention to attachment bonds and styles in career counseling is suggested.     

Do universal non‐contributory old‐age pensions make sense for rural areas in low‐income countries?

The need for old‐age security coverage in rural areas of many developing countries is rapidly increasing for several reasons, including population ageing and the weakening of family support networks. These trends have generated intense interest in policies that might help respond to the growing problem of rural old‐age destitution. The focus of our analysis is on one of the most promising alternatives under consideration: universal non‐contributory old‐age pensions. This model has some limitations and it is not appropriate for all developing countries, but it would be of potential benefit to far more than the six that have already implemented variants of this approach.     

Developmental differences in baserate estimates of social behaviors and attitudes

This study examined the development of baserate estimation skills for everyday social events and attitudes. Subjects in grades one, three, and six responded to questions concerning their own rates of behavior and attitudes, and their estimates of baserates of behaviors and attitudes for their classmates. The findings indicate a general increase in accuracy for the estimation of baserates throughout the elementary school years. In addition, younger subjects were less likely to make similar estimates for themselves and their classmates than were older respondents. Developmental changes in estimation accuracy are discussed in relation to task content, use of the response scale, correspondence between self-reports and estimates, and sample variability.     

Fast Mapping but Poor Retention by 24‐Month‐Old Infants

Four experiments explored the processes that bridge between referent selection and word learning. Twenty‐four‐month‐old infants were presented with several novel names during a referent selection task that included both familiar and novel objects and tested for retention after a 5‐min delay. The 5‐min delay ensured that word learning was based on retrieval from long‐term memory. Moreover, the relative familiarity of objects used during the retention test was explicitly controlled. Across experiments, infants were excellent at referent selection, but very poor at retention. Although the highly controlled retention test was clearly challenging, infants were able to demonstrate retention of the first 4 novel names presented in the session when referent selection was augmented with ostensive naming. These results suggest that fast mapping is robust for reference selection but might be more transient than previously reported for lexical retention. The relations between reference selection and retention are discussed in terms of competitive processes on 2 timescales: competition among objects on individual referent selection trials and competition among multiple novel name–object mappings made across an experimental session.