马尼拉、澳门、广州:紧密相联的三座城市

数百年来,马尼拉、澳门和广州一直相互依存,保持着密切关系。从16世纪后期至今,三者有着紧密的互动关系,每一城市对其他两者都有着深刻的影响与冲击。这些联系已经维系了几百年,直到今天仍有数万菲律宾人在珠江三角洲生活和工作。牛痘传入澳门和广州或许是巴尔米斯环球之旅的意外收获,但它也确实是三个地区之间长期密切关系的一个表现。在巴尔米斯来到珠江三角洲200周年之际,我们不应忘记三地人民之间在历史上的紧密关系,这一关系仍继续支持和维系着中菲两国,它也将把我们带向未来。     

COST INCREASES DUE TO DEMAND UNCERTAINTY IN MRP LOT SIZING

This paper analyzes the cost increases due to demand uncertainty in single-level MRP lot sizing on a rolling horizon. It is shown that forecast errors have a tremendous effect on the cost effectiveness of lot-sizing techniques even when these forecast errors are small. Moreover, the cost differences between different techniques become rather insignificant in the presence of forecast errors. Since most industrial firms face demand uncertainty to some extent, our findings may have important managerial implications. Various simulation experiments give insight into both the nature and the magnitude of the cost increases for different heuristics. Analytical results are developed for the constant-demand case with random noise and forecasting by exponential smoothing. It is also shown how optimal buffers can be obtained by use of a simple model. Although the analysis in this paper is restricted to simplified cases, the results merit further consideration and study. This paper is one of the first to inject forecast errors into MRP lot-sizing research. As such it attempts to deal with one of the major objections against the practical relevance of previous research in this area.     

Widowhood,family size,and post-reproductive Mortality: a comparative Analysis of three populations in Nineteenth-Century Europe

Researchers from a number of disciplines have offered competing theories about the effects oJ childbearing on parents 'postreproductive longevity. The "disposable soma theory" argues that investments in somatic maintenance increase longevity but reduce childbearing. "Maternal depletion" models suggest that the rigors of childrearing increase mortality in later years. Other researchers consider continued childbearing a sign of healthy aging and a predictor of future longevity. Empirical studies have produced inconsistent and contradictory results. Our focus is on the experience of widowhood, which has been ignored in previous studies. We hypothesize that the death of a spouse is a stressful event with long-term consequences for health, especially for women with small children. Data are drawn from historical sources in Sweden, Belgium, and the Netherlands from 1766 to 1980. Postreproductive mortality was highest among young widows with larger families in all three samples. Age at last birth had little or no effect. We conclude that raising children under adverse circumstances can have long-lasting, harmful effects on a mother's health.     

Uncertainty,selective exposure,and message efficacy effects during life transitions

Drawing on informational utility, uncertainty management, and self-efficacy models, predictions were developed about how individuals select media messages when faced with the transition from college to postcollege life. Predictions were also made concerning how message exposure influences self-efficacy and behavior. Participants filled out a questionnaire and then browsed a university blog that contained alumni posts about transition success (high-efficacy messages) or failure (low-efficacy messages) in a variety of life domains, including the target domain, romance. Browsing was unobtrusively measured through hyperlink tracking. Results indicate that selective exposure to low-efficacy romance messages was predicted by romance outcome expectancies; romance uncertainty discrepancy had an indirect effect on selective exposure through outcome expectancies and self-efficacy’s impact on outcome expectancies. Thus, outcome expectancies and self-efficacy should be considered when predicting exposure to high- versus low-efficacy messages during a life transition.     

When women veterans return: The role of postsecondary education in transition in their civilian lives

Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess the current state of postsecondary educational settings’ outreach to military women who become students postservice. Participants: Data for the present cross-sectional study were obtained from the American College Health Association’s (ACHA) 2011–2014 National College Health Assessment II (NCHA). Methods: Demographic characteristics of the study sample were explored by calculating frequencies and percentages by military service status. Research questions were explored with Fisher’s exact test, maximum likelihood multiple logistic regression, as appropriate. Results: Women service member and veteran students received health information from their university/college less often than women students with no military experience on the following topics: alcohol and other drug use, depression and anxiety, sexual assault and relationship violence prevention, and stress reduction. Conclusions: The findings of this research identified clear gaps in service provision for women student veterans on college campuses and provided some possible models for intervention development.     

Building a health communication brand for University of Texas System tobacco control

Objective: Despite declining cigarette smoking rates in the US, there is a continued need for tobacco prevention education campaigns to reach young adults. Recognizing the need for improved tobacco control messaging, the University of Texas (UT) System engaged The University of Texas at Austin Center for Health Communication to develop a brand and message that would strengthen tobacco control efforts at its 14 institutions. Methods: This article describes the iterative process involved in creating a brand for tobacco control, including an environmental scan, identifying potential message themes, and creating and refining logos. Results: This article highlights the process of developing a system-wide tobacco control brand. Specifically, the process included coordinating an interdisciplinary team with content and design experts, and presenting ideas to stakeholders for serial feedback and refinement, among others. Conclusions: Ultimately, this project offers a model for other systems of higher education interested in pursuing similar initiatives.     

Demographic differences in response rates for PHQ9 in a university student population

Objective: To examine differences in complete response rates for depression screening questions based on demographic characteristics. Methods: Cross-sectional study examining associations between demographic characteristics and completely responding depression-screening questions. Participants: “Healthy Minds Study” data, collected in a public University in February 2016, where 7,326 students participated. Results: women (AOR: 0.69; 95% CI =0.57–0.83) and gay/lesbian students (AOR: 0.24; 95% CI =0.10–0.60) had better complete response rates. Non-US (AOR: 1.46; 95% CI =1.03–2.07), black (AOR: 3.32; 95% CI =1.92–5.77), and Middle-Eastern students (AOR: 3.73; 95% CI =1.73–8.02) had lower complete response rates. Conclusions: Our study shows sex, gender, citizenship, and race categories have significant differences in complete response rates for the outcome. Our findings have several implications; including recognizing interventions for depression based on responders may not target those that tend to be “partial-responders”. Efforts in survey design, recruiting and completion of surveys should be maximized.     

Housing interventions for homeless,pregnant/parenting women with addictions: a systematic review

Family homelessness is a growing problem in North America with most of these families headed by single women. Homeless women also experience high rates of pregnancy and addiction (drugs and alcohol). Housing interventions have been identified as key to addressing the complex needs of pregnant/early parenting, homeless women with addictions. The aim of this systematic review is to determine what housing models and programs for this population yield the best outcomes. We systematically searched 10 databases and retrieved eight articles describing four distinct studies that met the inclusion criteria for this review. Overall, improved outcomes were found for all intervention groups with the most recent and rigorous studies favoring models combining Housing First and case management. However, methodological limitations, study quality, and varied outcomes made comparison across studies difficult. Further research must be done in this area using standardized outcomes and rigorous designs to develop evidence-based best practice guidelines to address the unique needs of this population.