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61.
"This article revises the Coale-Trussell method for analyzing data from the World Fertility Survey by proposing and testing alternative log-linear and log-multiplicative models. The models, in one form or another, represent the structural constraint underlying the Coale-Trussell method on the variation in the age pattern of human fertility. With a Poisson distribution assumption for the number of births, several parameters of the models are simultaneously estimated via maximum likelihood. It is shown that the new approach can be adopted whenever fertility limitation is compared across multiple populations or subpopulations."  相似文献   
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This study is a further analysis of the approach taken by Yew-Kwang Ng to derive the utilitarian criterion. Specific for the model is that individual preferences are finitely sensible. In this framweork an analysis of the consequences on social preferences when different kinds of value premises are imposed is made. It is found that the utilitarian criterion is the unique consequence only for very special choices of the value premise. In addition, uniqueness requires the underlying preferences be cardinal. It is also found that finite sensibility induces approximate cardinalization of preferences.I am grateful to Y.-K. Ng, two anonymous referees and an editor of this journal for helpful and constructive comments on earlier versions of this paper. The research was financially supported by the Swedish Council for Research in the Humanities and Social Sciences  相似文献   
64.
Individual behavior under risk and under uncertainty: An experimental study   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
These experiments are concerned with individual behavior under risk and under uncertainty. By exploiting the isolation effect the experiments were able to offer to 134 subjects the possibility of actually gaining or losing an important sum of money.The experimental data show that under risk as well as under complete ignorance the subjects' attitudes towards prospects of gains and towards prospects of losses are totally unrelated.The data also show that when facing prospects of gains, the subjects generally take the exact probabilities of the events into account, whereas, when facing prospects of losses many of then have only recourse to coarser categories of plausibility, or even no longer use their information at all.  相似文献   
65.
In China the effort to develop maternal and child health (MCH) care has been ongoing. Initially, attention was directed primarily to promulgating a modern method of delivery in an effort neonatal tetanus and puerperal fever. The next stage was the systematic management of MCH care. Pregnant women and puerperants were given a series of checkups and guidance from conception until the 42nd day after delivery. The purpose was to prevent and treat complications. In some cities, perinatal care has developed to the point of health care management of the health of both mother and child. This extensive health care system includes preconception and pregnancy care, puerperant care, and neonatal care. Premarital checks have become the rule in the urban areas. MCH care organizations at the grassroots level and community health workers take responsibility for advising newly married couples about health care. In addition, some medical colleges and their affiliated hospitals provide consultation services for these couples. The Shanghai Railway Medical College uses a computer to make projections on multigenic genetic diseases. It provides information on incidence risk of the next generation to help couples make their childbearing decisions. The majority of pregnant women get their 1st prenatal check prior to the 12th week of pregnancy, followed by 9 re-examinations to screen out high risk factors. Difficult labor, infections, obstetric trauma, postpartum hemorrhage, and fetal distress are prevented at childbirth. Newborns are scored with Apgar comments; those with low marks are specially protected. In some cities, an investigation system has been established to deal with perinatal deaths. Perinatal care is managed at 3 levels: community MCH centers and MCH departments of hospitals, clinics, and industrial enterprises form the 1st level of care; MCH centers of city districts and hospitals at the district level make up the 2nd level of care; and MCH institutes or hospitals at provincial or city levels, hospitals attached to medical colleges, and hospitals under government ministries form the 3rd level of care.  相似文献   
66.
Knowledge is a vital source of competitive advantage and renewal for contemporary organizations. However, to date, few studies have scrutinized how mergers and acquisitions (M&As)—processes dependent on knowledge sharing—offer a valuable inter-organizational context through which to understand the attainment of customer knowledge sharing following M&As. Applying an integrated theoretical perspective from customer relationship management and M&A performance research, we study a Chinese–Finnish acquisition and customer firms of the acquired party across four advanced Western countries. We find that customer knowledge sharing is an active relationship management process that relies on the factors of customer dedication-based motivation vs. customer concerns about M&As to maintain relationships after acquisitions. In addition, and more importantly, we find that the promise management mechanisms—making promises, enabling promises, and keeping promises—of the M&A parties reinforce the motivational factors to maintain customer knowledge sharing in cross-border M&As. We propose a conceptual framework of customer knowledge sharing in cross-border M&As.  相似文献   
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姜伟 《东方论坛》2022,(1):87-103
将投资者信心指数引入MIDAS混频模型之中,可以考察新冠疫情背景下投资者信心对于中国宏观经济波动的影响。基于投资者信心指数和“三驾马车”对我国季度GDP增长率进行预测,通过实证发现:引入投资者信心指数的MIDAS混频模型在预测精准度方面和基准模型进行比较,预测精准度高于未加入投资者信心的模型,均方根残差比值更小;在多元MIDAS混频模型之中,加入投资者信心指数的回归模型对我国GDP的实时预报和短期预测结果更加稳定,可为决策者提供更加精确的参考区间;宏观经济的波动对投资者信心指数变化反应,和投资、消费和进出口相比是最灵敏的。这为定量追踪宏观经济波动提供了一个新的视角。  相似文献   
69.
The association between sociodemographic, demographic, and attitudinal measures and the timing or tempo of marital dissolution over a 14-year time span is examined. Separation is considered equivalent to divorce. Early and late divorce are differentiated by whether the event occurred before or after the average number of years married prior to divorce. Data were obtained on husbands and wives within childbearing years (up to 39 years) in the 1st years of the 1st marriage. A random stratified sample of 610 couples was drawn from records of marriages in a midwestern county between 1972-77. Reinterviews were conducted on 544 couples in April 1985. socioeconomic variables included educational attainment, occupational prestige, wife's employment status, wife's future work plans, husband's attitude to wife's future work plans, total family income, and level of satisfaction with current financial status. Demographic variables are age at marriage, number of children in 1985, marital duration, and desired family size. Attitudinal items were religiosity and gender role orientations (traditionalism, modernism, egalitarianism). Exposure to divorce was not equitably distributed for the 108 who divorced, but this was not statistically significant. The results indicate that those divorced earlier were wives who worked outside the home, worked at more prestigious jobs, planned to be employed throughout married life, and whose father had a higher level of educational attainment. This finding is not consistent with prior research which has shown that favorable socioeconomic conditions lower the probability of divorce. The timing of divorce was affected by the presence of children. Those married at younger ages divorced earlier and couples with children delayed divorcing longer than couples without children. These findings were consistent with earlier research. Catholic wives delayed divorce longer than non-Catholic wives. Males lower in sexual satisfaction divorced earlier. Divorce was postponed longer for husbands with traditional values and wives who had higher scores on egalitarianism. Wives with scores on modernism had earlier divorces than wives scoring lower on modernism. The tempo of divorce was in multiple classification analysis predicted best by wife's employment status and number of children. Cross-classification was not possible.  相似文献   
70.
"This paper evaluates age, period, and cohort effects on marital fertility during onset of the Utah fertility transition (1880-1900). Computerized genealogies are used to derive age-period-cohort fertility rates for 49,842 once-married couples. Age, period and cohort effects on marital fertility are then estimated using Johnson's (1985) relational model. Declining marital fertility in Utah is shown to be explained by both lower fertility levels across periods and increasing age-specific limitation across cohorts. Direct cohort effects on fertility are insignificant. These results are consistent with prior research, and the view that fertility levels were adaptive (in part through birth spacing across ages) to immediate contexts of childbearing while age-specific fertility truncation increased across cohorts (in part through the more general diffusion of contraceptive innovations)."  相似文献   
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