Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability

In quantitative uncertainty analysis, it is essential to define rigorously the endpoint or target of the assessment. Two distinctly different approaches using Monte Carlo methods are discussed: (1) the end point is a fixed but unknown value (e.g., the maximally exposed individual, the average individual, or a specific individual) or (2) the end point is an unknown distribution of values (e.g., the variability of exposures among unspecified individuals in the population). In the first case, values are sampled at random from distributions representing various "degrees of belief" about the unknown "fixed" values of the parameters to produce a distribution of model results. The distribution of model results represents a subjective confidence statement about the true but unknown assessment end point. The important input parameters are those that contribute most to the spread in the distribution of the model results. In the second case, Monte Carlo calculations are performed in two dimensions producing numerous alternative representations of the true but unknown distribution. These alternative distributions permit subject confidence statements to be made from two perspectives: (1) for the individual exposure occurring at a specified fractile of the distribution or (2) for the fractile of the distribution associated with a specified level of individual exposure. The relative importance of input parameters will depend on the fractile or exposure level of interest. The quantification of uncertainty for the simulation of a true but unknown distribution of values represents the state-of-the-art in assessment modeling.     

WOMEN'S ACCESS TO PENSIONS AND THE STRUCTURE OF ELIGIBILITY RULES:

Because many older women lack access to private pensions and rely solely on social security income, they are significantly more likely than men to have incomes below or near poverty level. Liberal feminists attribute women's failure to attain pensions to their discontinuous work histories, which preclude them from meeting requirements for length and continuity of service. Such a conclusion ignores the invisible gender-based distinctions arising from the organizational logic of the workplace. The key issue is not why women fail to satisfy pension rules but rather why the rules are structured to penalize women for their reproductive labor. This historical case study of the pension negotiation process in two unions, the United Auto Workers and the International Ladies Garment Workers Union, indicates that the price women pay in the market for their domestic labor is a social construction that arises from specific decisions in the workplace. The analysis suggests that women can improve their status relative to men if they are able to reveal the hidden dimensions of gender in societal institutions but that they cannot attain full equality until the distinction between social production and reproduction is eliminated.     

Gender Advertising: The Self- Fulfilling Prophecy?

The socialising role of advertising is discussed in the context of gender bias, and reference is made to studies analysing advertisements from various media. Policy considerations in regard to the regulation of gender advertising are discussed, with a review of the relevant Australian legislation. Alternative possibilities for reform in the area of sexist advertising are canvassed.     

Back on Your Feet: An Interpretation of an EPUY

The Educational Programme for Unemployed Youth (EPUY) is a federal government scheme which assists the states to run courses for unemployed school leavers. The Queensland course, ‘Skills for Working and Living’, takes sixteen weeks. Participant observation provides an ethnographic look at one of these programmes at the Brisbane Catering College. From the time allocation by course planners, personal development was not officially considered crucially important, though it was to the teachers who were predominantly women. The staff were part time, consisting of Technical and Further Education, College of Advanced Education and temporary teachers. The fifteen students (seven girls and eight youths) ranged in age from 14 to 19 years. The course is selectively described in terms of two central events: the first two weeks; and the final weeks before graduation. A positive group climate developed only very slowly because of various constraints. However, the students reported increased feelings of self-worth and personal effectiveness and they acknowledged staff friendliness and perseverance. During the course and within a month of its completion, eight of the unemployed got jobs. Such schemes deserve encouragement.     

Multinomial and conditional logit discrete-choice models in demography

Although discrete-choice statistical techniques have been used with increasing regularity in demographic analyses, McFadden's conditional logit model is less well known and seldom used. Conditional logit models are appropriate when the choice among alternatives is modeled as a function of the characteristics of the alternatives, rather than (or in addition to) the characteristics of the individual making the choice. We argue that this feature of conditional logit makes it more appropriate for estimating behavioral models. In this article, the conditional logit model is presented and compared with the more familiar multinomial logit model. The difference between the two techniques is illustrated with an analysis of the choice of marital and welfare status by divorced or separated women.     

Children's standards for judging their own facial expressions of emotion

This study examined three- to seven-year-old children's abilities to recognize and label their own facial expressions of emotion. Each child posed four facial expressions (Happy, Sad, Angry, and Scared) which were photographed with a Polaroid camera. The child then selected each expression from the array of his/her own photos and labeled the facial expression of each photo. In addition to children's self-evaluations, the photo set's expressive content was evaluated by a panel of adult raters. Happy was the expression easiest for children to pose; Scared was the most difficult. Abilities involved in evaluating one's own facial expression (i.e., recognizing and labeling) appear not to be acquired simultaneously with the ability to pose the expression. Not all children conformed to adult standards in evaluating their own expressions. Nearly one-fifth of the children studied exhibited evidence of an idiosyncratic expressive scheme for at least one of their facial expressions.     

Anger in black and white: race, alienation, and anger

Using data from the 1996 General Social Survey and the 1973 Chicago Crowding Study, we test the hypotheses that African Americans feel and express more anger than whites, that sense of control (versus powerlessness) lessens anger and mistrust increases anger, and that these indicators of alienation affect anger differently for African Americans and whites. We find that when age and gender are controlled, African Americans neither feel nor express more anger than whites, despite having a lower average sense of control and higher mistrust. This is partly because the effects of sense of control and mistrust on anger differ by race. Sense of control reduces feelings of anger and anger expression more for African Americans than whites. Mistrust increases feelings of anger for whites, but not African Americans. The results provide further evidence that, in the stress process, social structural location may moderate the effects of "detriments" and "resources" on emotional upset.     

The Simple Bind and Discontinuous Change

The author argues that families usually respond to internal and external demands for change in terms of leaps or transformations to new and different adaptive structural arrangements. Such transformations unavoidably have stress and disruption as a prelude. Transformations are precipitated by paradoxical injunctions called “simple binds”. The presence of “double binds” lead to the disqualification of, and failure of transformations. Symptomatic behaviour of family members can be seen as a product of failed transformations.     

Canadians in Crisis: the Nature and Source of Support for Leadership in a National Emergency*

Cet article analyse un cas ou la position théorique de Parsons concernant «l'in-flation de confiance» dans les autorités politiques est opérant dans un groupe à l'occasion d'une crise nationale. Un analyse de contenu de 1047 lettres à lèditeur démontre que leurs auteurs arriverent aux mêmes conclusions mais à partir de significations subjecteurs les plus diverses et une grande variété de prises de positions idéalogiques. Dès lors, le consensus dans les systèmes de valeur devenait aleatoire: on chercha à le susciter par le biais de deux stratégies de leadership. D'une part on cherche à revaloriser l'attachement aux valeurs les plus fondamentales; d'autre part on veut créer la crainte par un dénigrement de l'ennemi. Une analyse plus poussée évonce les conséquences possibles pour le système de la répugnance chez les membres a mener une analyse critique des politiques de leurs dirigeants. This paper explores a case where Parsons' inflation of trust in political authorities was operating among system members during a national crisis. A content analysis of 1047 letters to the editor shows that writers reached the same conclusion but through widely different subjective meanings and ideological positions. Hence, value consensus was seen as problematic, and its source was sought in an exploration of two leadership strategies: inculcation of attachment to core values, and mobilization of fear through vilification of the enemy. Further analysis suggests the consequences for the system of a reluctance among members to scrutinize the policies of political leaders.