ALTERNATIVE P* MODELS OF INFLATION FORECASTS

This paper reevaluates the inflation forecast performance of M2-based P* models relative to other competing models over the period of 1970–96. Included in the comparative study are newly developed monetary aggregates, including M2+, MZM, and M2*, and direct treatments of velocity changes associated with recent developments in M2. Out-of-sample rolling-horizon forecast exercises suggest that the predictive accuracy of alternative P* model specifications relative to traditional inflation models is not robust to different subsamples. The switching forecast performance between money-based and output-based models across periods highlights the extent of structural instability in the inflation generating process. (JEL E3, E4, C2)     

Working with perpetrators of domestic violence to protect women and children: a partnership between Cheshire Probation Service and the NSPCC

Domestic violence is increasingly becoming recognized as a serious social problem with an enormous cost to society. While historically services have been established for women survivors, it is only recently that programmes designed to address men's violence towards women have become established, led predominantly within the criminal justice sector. This paper describes one such programme established in partnership between Cheshire Probation Service and the NSPCC. It identifies a number of factors considered to be essential in its successful implementation, including the importance of working in partnership, a sound and shared theoretical basis, the provision of a parallel support package for women and children and ongoing programme evaluation. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An assessment of the statistical methods used to analyse toxicology studies

The Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry Toxicology Special Interest Group has collated and compared statistical analysis methods for a number of toxicology study types including general toxicology, genetic toxicology, safety pharmacology and carcinogenicity. In this paper, we present the study design, experimental units and analysis methods.     

Review of the statistical analysis of the dog telemetry study

In 2008, the PSI Toxicology Special Interest Group met to discuss the design and analysis of dog telemetry studies. The dog telemetry study is one component of the integrated cardiovascular assessment required by regulatory bodies. Although there are guidelines for these studies, little is said about the statistical analysis. With parameters of interest measured continually over time, in studies typically involving four dogs, the analysis is not straightforward. This has led to many different types of analysis being proposed in the literature, with many different methods applied within the pharmaceutical industry itself. This paper summarizes the PSI Toxicology group's discussions and recommendations around these issues.     

Psychometric properties of an adapted version of the parental sense of competence (PSOC) scale for Portuguese at‐risk parents

Parental sense of competence is one of the central dimensions targeted on psychosocial interventions aimed at supporting at‐risk families. Researchers and practitioners need reliable instruments to assess the parental role adapted for these families. Although the parental sense of competence (PSOC) scale has been frequently used to assess this construct, there is still no adapted version for Portuguese parents. In this study, the reliability, validity and factor structure of the PSOC scale is examined with a clinical sample of 146 mothers from at‐risk families receiving psychosocial interventions for family preservation from Child Protective Services. Results show that the Portuguese version of the PSOC measures three distinct constructs with acceptable psychometric properties: efficacy, dissatisfaction and controllability. As expected, the obtained factors were significantly and positively related to parenting alliance and family cohesion, and negatively associated with parenting stress. In sum, the proposed Portuguese version shows reliability and validity evidences to measure three relevant dimensions of parental self‐evaluation, and it constitutes a cost‐ and time‐effective instrument suited for at‐risk mothers.     

Controlling for initial endowment and experience in binary choice tasks

Learning literature typically assumes that initial attractions to choose each possible alternative are given exogenously. However, evidence shows that current behaviour depends on past experiences. In this paper, we design an experiment to control for the initial experience in decisions from experience by providing decision makers with an exogenous history (successful vs. unsuccessful) prior to initiating the decision task. Moreover, varying the initial endowment level for fixed histories we investigate the income effect. We are also interested in analysing the duration of both effects (history and income). We find significant treatment effects in the sense that more risk taking behaviour is associated with good histories and with low income levels. According to previous literature, our results confirm the transitory nature of both effects, although the duration of the income effect doubles the duration of the history effect. In the long run, risky choice behaviour converges across different treatments.     

Assessing Subjective Well-being in Chinese Older Adults: The Chinese Aging Well Profile

Subjective well-being has increasingly been used as a key indicator of quality of life in older people. Existing evidence shows that it is likely that eastern cultures carry different life values and so the Chinese Aging Well Profile was devised for measuring subjective well-being in Chinese adults (50+). Data was collected from 1,906 community-dwelling Chinese (50+) in Taiwan in six sequential stages, involving qualitative interviews and psychometric testing. Seven key dimensions of subjective well-being identified in the interviews provided an item bank for instrument construction. The 31-item Chinese Aging Well Profile comprised seven subscales–’physical’, ‘psychological’, ‘independence’, ‘learning & growth’, ‘material’, ‘environmental’, and ‘social’ well-being. The study indicated that elements of subjective well-being are common across western and eastern cultures but are interpreted and weighted differently. This new instrument has demonstrated preliminary evidence for reliability and validity and that it is suitable for use in the Chinese speaking older population.     

Reduce rework,improve safety: an empirical inquiry into the precursors to error in construction

A positive association between rework and safety events that arise during the construction process has been identified. In-depth semi-structured interviews with operational and project-related employees from an Australian construction organisation were undertaken to determine the precursors to rework and safety events. The analysis enabled the precursors of error to examined under the auspices of: (1) People, (2) Organisation, and (3) Project. It is revealed that the precursors to error for rework and safety incidents were similar. A conceptual framework to simultaneously reduce rework and safety incidents is proposed. It is acknowledged that there is no panacea that can be used to prevent rework from occurring, but from the findings presented indicate that a shift from a position of ‘preventing’ to ‘managing’ errors is required to enable learning to become an embedded feature of an organisation’s culture. As a consequence, this will contribute to productivity and performance improvements being realised.     

Capabilities of PR professionals for key activities lag: Asia-Pacific study shows theory and practice gaps

A number of studies of the knowledge, skills and abilities (KSAs), competencies and capabilities of public relations and communication professionals have been carried out in the USA, UK and other countries. However, most have not engaged to any significant extent with literature in the human resource development field which specializes in defining and developing these characteristics. Also, few studies to date have related the KSAs, competencies and capabilities of practitioners to the key activities of public relations and communication management required for the future. This article presents findings and analysis from a regional survey conducted in 22 Asia-Pacific countries in 2017/18 that compared, for the first time, the capabilities of practitioners in relation to activities identified as the most important over the next three years. This data, and comparison with equivalent regional surveys in Europe and Latin America, confirm a gap in capabilities in relation to key communication activities and suggest a gap in theory as well as practice. The findings and conclusions present a challenge for higher education and professional development for public relations and communication management and point to potential future directions in theory building.     

Legal capacity and the mental health social worker role: an international comparison

ABSTRACT

New capacity laws have been introduced to many jurisdictions over the last decade. These laws have substantially changed the way in which mental health social workers and other professionals approach decisions about, and for, clients. Most notably, there is now an expectation that mental health social workers engage more in supported decision-making to prevent the need for substitute decision-making. This article describes the legal and policy drivers that have led to these changes in practice, with a particular emphasis on the significance of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (the UNCRPD) and the importance of recovery approaches in mental health services. It then uses selected literature to explore the efficacy of the laws and decision-making in this area. The second part of the article identifies the role that mental health social workers can play in supporting legal capacity, drawing from the authors’ experience and knowledge of mental health social work and law in four jurisdictions: Victoria, Australia; Ontario, Canada; England and Wales; and Northern Ireland. It is concluded that mental health and other social workers need to refine skills, knowledge and values to accommodate this paradigm shift in law, policy and practice.