A polynomial equation to predict low back compression force: accounting for the effects of load height on instability

The purpose of this study was to develop a regression equation that, incorporating the potential energy of the load in the hands, was capable of improved predictions of spinal compression forces. A stepwise polynomial equation was developed from EMG profiles of 15 muscles, and its spinal joint loading predictions at L4/L5 were compared to current methods of calculating spinal compression. Absolute muscle activation was shown to increase with increased loading height, indicating that the central nervous system responds to changes in spinal stability. The inclusion of potential energy into the calculation of spinal disc compression at L4/L5 improved estimates of the compressive forces acting on the spine. This is the first model to incorporate potential energy into a predictive model for lumbar spine compression without the use of electromyography. It was concluded that potential energy plays a vital role in dictating the recruitment patterns of the trunk.     

The South Australian Housing Trust: A Socioeconomic Case Study in Public Housing

The cost structure of Australian public housing authorities and its implications for the social administrative side of public housing operations is examined through a study of the South Australian Housing Trust. The importance of the pooled debt burden for lowering costs to well below private market levels is indicated. The sales policy is examined and it is argued that the sale of public housing into owner occupation is a major exacerbating factor in the high cost of rental rebating and in unbalancing the social mix among public housing tenants. The implications of the 1978 Commonwealth State Housing Agreement for the South Australian Housing Trust are briefly examined.     

Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

From design to operations: a process management life-cycle performance measurement system for Public-Private Partnerships

Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) have become a critical vehicle for delivering infrastructure worldwide. Yet, the use of such a procurement strategy has received considerable criticism, as they have been prone to experiencing time/cost overruns and during their operation poorly managed. A key issue contributing to the poor performance of PPPs is the paucity of an effective and comprehensive performance measurement system. There has been a tendency for the performance of PPPs to be measured based on their ex-post criteria of time, cost and quality. Such criteria do not accommodate the complexities and lifecycle of an asset. In addressing this problem, the methodology of sequential triangulation is used to develop and examine the effectiveness of a ‘Process Management Life Cycle Performance Measurement System’. The research provides public authorities and private-sector entities embarking on PPPs with a robust mechanism to effectively measure, control and manage their projects’ life cycle performances, ensuring the assets are ‘future proofed’.     

阿兰·雷富礼：领导变革

6年前，宝洁公司深陷泥潭，业绩连年下滑，公司管理层在四个月内连续三次发布利润预警，公司最危险的时候，股价曾经在一日之内骤跌30％，市值大幅缩水。雷富礼临危受命，成为这家全球第一日化品牌的新任掌门人。     

Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research

In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.     

A Probabilistic Model of the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During Floods

Scour (localized erosion by water) is an important risk to bridges, and hence many infrastructure networks, around the world. In Britain, scour has caused the failure of railway bridges crossing rivers in more than 50 flood events. These events have been investigated in detail, providing a data set with which we develop and test a model to quantify scour risk. The risk analysis is formulated in terms of a generic, transferrable infrastructure network risk model. For some bridge failures, the severity of the causative flood was recorded or can be reconstructed. These data are combined with the background failure rate, and records of bridges that have not failed, to construct fragility curves that quantify the failure probability conditional on the severity of a flood event. The fragility curves generated are to some extent sensitive to the way in which these data are incorporated into the statistical analysis. The new fragility analysis is tested using flood events simulated from a spatial joint probability model for extreme river flows for all river gauging sites in Britain. The combined models appear robust in comparison with historical observations of the expected number of bridge failures in a flood event. The analysis is used to estimate the probability of single or multiple bridge failures in Britain's rail network. Combined with a model for passenger journey disruption in the event of bridge failure, we calculate a system‐wide estimate for the risk of scour failures in terms of passenger journey disruptions and associated economic costs.