Judgment and Analysis in Oil Spill Risk Assessment

The risk of oil spills is a major environmental issue in the siting of proposed coastal refineries, oil terminals, deepwater ports, and in the leasing of offshore lands for oil exploration and development. As with any kind of risk, oil spill risk assessment is inherently judgmental and no analytic method can eliminate the need for judgment. This paper compares representative examples of oil spill risk assessments with regard to decisions about data, variables, functional relations, and uncertainty. The comparison emphasizes the judgmental basis of analytic methods.     

An Empirical Investigation of the Assumptions of Risk-Value Models

Do participants make decisions consistent with risk-value tradeoffs? One hundred and five undergraduate business students made risk and preference judgments about lottery pairs in a series of paper surveys. The data indicate that the participants’ responses were generally consistent with the key assumptions of risk-value models, but that some extensions of the theory would improve this consistency. In particular, we find that modifying the risk assumptions of the risk-value theory so they are consistent the concept of the reflection of the risk attitude in the domains of gains and losses increases the agreement between the theory and the participants’ responses.     

Supportive parenting moderates the effect of discrimination upon anger, hostile view of relationships, and violence among African American boys

Studies have shown that exposure to discrimination increases the probability that African American adolescents will engage in delinquent behavior, especially acts of violence. The present study extended this research by examining the extent to which supportive parenting buffers a youth from these deleterious consequences of discrimination. Analyses based upon two waves of data from a sample of 332 African American adolescent males and their caretakers supported this hypothesis. Further the results indicated that there are two avenues whereby supportive parenting reduces the probability that discrimination will lead to violence. First, supportive parenting decreases the chances that discrimination will lead to anger and a hostile view of relationships. Second, supportive parenting lowers the risk that anger or a hostile view of relationships, when they develop, will result in violence.     

Victim service and justice system representative responses about partner stalking: what do professionals recommend?

Research suggests that partner stalking is associated with reassault and lethality as well as increased psychological distress for victims. However, there is a significant gap in information about stalking interventions and the responses of health, mental health, law enforcement, social services, and criminal justice professionals to women experiencing partner stalking. The purpose of this study is to examine the ideas about appropriate and effective responses to stalking victims from professionals in victim services and the justice system. The study also examined differences among rural and urban representatives because prior studies have shown significant differences between rural and urban areas on experiences and responses to partner violence. A total of 152 key informants (38 urban and 114 rural) were interviewed. Study results suggest a need for more training for victim services and justice system professionals on stalking and service needs of women who experience stalking in the context of partner violence.     

The 3 F 2 with Complex Parameters as Generating Function of Discrete Distribution

A new discrete family of probability distributions that are generated by the ₃ F ₂ function with complex parameters is presented. Some of the properties of this new family are studied as well as methods of estimation for its parameters. It affords considerable flexibility of shape which turns the distribution into an appropriate candidate for modeling data that cannot be adequately fitted by classical families with fewer parameters. Finally, three examples in the fields of Agriculture and Education are included in order to show the versatility and utility of this distribution.     

Obtaining a Trapezoidal Distribution

Given a most believed value for a quantity together with upper and lower possible deviations from that value, a rectangular distribution might be used to represent state-of-knowledge about the quantity. If the deviations are themselves known by probability distributions, and the value conditioned on the deviations is rectangular, then the marginal distribution of the value is determined by the distributions of the deviations. Here we show under quite general conditions that conversely, given the marginal distribution, the distributions of the deviations are uniquely determined. The case in which the marginal distribution is trapezoidal is studied in some detail.     

Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?

This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.