A Diamond-Stiglitz approach to the demand for self-protection

The existing research concerning the relationship between risk aversion and prudence and the demand for self-protection assumes that the loss variable follows a Bernoulli distribution, and that changes in the level of self-protection are mean preserving. The analysis here replaces these two very strong conditions with ones which are more general. When doing this, the method of analysis is also significantly modified. This modification includes representing a change in the level of self-protection using the procedure developed by Diamond and Stiglitz (Journal of Economic Theory 8:337-360, 1974) for representing a change in risk. This alternate representation allows the existing findings to be generalized considerably, and also simplifies the analysis.     

Two-sided intergenerational moral hazard,long-term care insurance,and nursing home use

Two-sided intergenerational moral hazard occurs (i) if the parent’s decision to purchase long-term care (LTC) coverage undermines the child’s incentive to exert effort because the insurance protects the bequest from the cost of nursing home care, and (ii) when the parent purchases less LTC coverage, relying on child’s effort to keep him out of the nursing home. However, a “net” moral hazard effect obtains only if the two players’ responses to exogenous shocks fail to neutralize each other, entailing a negative relationship between child’s effort and parental LTC coverage. We focus on outcomes out of equilibrium, interpreting them as a break in the relationship resulting in no informal care provided and hence high probability nursing home admission. Changes in the parent’s initial wealth, LTC subsidy received, and child’s expected inheritance are shown to induce “net” moral hazard, in contradistinction to changes in child’s opportunity cost and share in the bequest.     

秦汉礼制中渗透的神学观念——以河北地区为例

秦汉时期,是宗教与封建专制融合的时代,以方术、巫术为基础的宗天神学和谶纬神学得到统治者推崇,对秦汉政治、文化产生了深刻的影响,甚至秦汉时期许多封建礼制和典章制度,都源于方术及其相关的宗教信仰。而河北地区的燕赵故地,正是神学宗教盛行的地区。以大量史实为基础,研究秦汉礼制中蕴含的神学宗教,可剖析封建礼制与宗教的关系和相互作用。     

Data skeletons: simultaneous estimation of multiple quantiles for massive streaming datasets with applications to density estimation

We consider the problem of density estimation when the data is in the form of a continuous stream with no fixed length. In this setting, implementations of the usual methods of density estimation such as kernel density estimation are problematic. We propose a method of density estimation for massive datasets that is based upon taking the derivative of a smooth curve that has been fit through a set of quantile estimates. To achieve this, a low-storage, single-pass, sequential method is proposed for simultaneous estimation of multiple quantiles for massive datasets that form the basis of this method of density estimation. For comparison, we also consider a sequential kernel density estimator. The proposed methods are shown through simulation study to perform well and to have several distinct advantages over existing methods.     

A multivariate version of Gini's rank association coefficient

In this paper, we introduce a multivariate generalization of the population version of Gini's rank association coefficient, giving a response to this open question posed in [4]. We also study some properties of this version, present the corresponding results for the sample statistic, and provide several examples.     

Acceleration of the Multiple-Try Metropolis algorithm using antithetic and stratified sampling

The Multiple-Try Metropolis is a recent extension of the Metropolis algorithm in which the next state of the chain is selected among a set of proposals. We propose a modification of the Multiple-Try Metropolis algorithm which allows for the use of correlated proposals, particularly antithetic and stratified proposals. The method is particularly useful for random walk Metropolis in high dimensional spaces and can be used easily when the proposal distribution is Gaussian. We explore the use of quasi Monte Carlo (QMC) methods to generate highly stratified samples. A series of examples is presented to evaluate the potential of the method.     

Cox regression analysis in presence of collinearity: an application to assessment of health risks associated with occupational radiation exposure

This paper considers the analysis of time to event data in the presence of collinearity between covariates. In linear and logistic regression models, the ridge regression estimator has been applied as an alternative to the maximum likelihood estimator in the presence of collinearity. The advantage of the ridge regression estimator over the usual maximum likelihood estimator is that the former often has a smaller total mean square error and is thus more precise. In this paper, we generalized this approach for addressing collinearity to the Cox proportional hazards model. Simulation studies were conducted to evaluate the performance of the ridge regression estimator. Our approach was motivated by an occupational radiation study conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to evaluate health risks associated with occupational radiation exposure in which the exposure tends to be correlated with possible confounders such as years of exposure and attained age. We applied the proposed methods to this study to evaluate the association of radiation exposure with all-cause mortality.     

Some preservation results of NBUC aging property with applications

This paper develops a new characterization of NBUC aging property, and investigates its preservation properties both under monotonic anti-star-shaped transformations and under the non-homogeneous Poisson shock models.     

Estimation of the means of the bivariate normal using moving extreme ranked set sampling with concomitant variable

The estimation of the means of the bivariate normal distribution, based on a sample obtained using a modification of the moving extreme ranked set sampling technique (MERSS) is considered. The modification involves using a concomitant random variable. Nonparametric-type methods as well as the maximum likelihood estimation are considered. The estimators obtained are compared to their counterparts based on simple random sampling (SRS). It appears that the suggested estimators are more efficient. Also, MERSS with concomitant variable is easier to use in practice than the usual ranked set sampling (RSS) with concomitant variable. The issue of robustness of the procedure is addressed. Real trees data set is used for illustration.