Effects of Outcome and Probabilistic Ambiguity on Managerial Choices

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and likely influences management decisions. This study examines, given imprecise probabilities and outcomes, how managers make choices when they are provided with single-figure benchmarks. Seventy-nine MBA students completed two experiments. We found that, in a decision framed as a decision under certainty involving an ambiguous outcome, the majority of the subjects were ambiguity prone in the loss condition and switched to ambiguity aversion in the gain condition. However, in the presence of probabilistic ambiguity in a decision under risk, this expected switching pattern was shown only when the difference in riskiness between the two choice options (in the loss condition) was perceived to be relatively small. In a companion study, we used a written protocol approach to identify factors that affect decision makers' investment choices when faced with ambiguous outcomes. Protocols frequently mentioned that the ambiguous outcome option was risky, even in the case which was framed as a decision under certainty in the problem statement. In a decision under risk with ambiguous outcomes, the combination of probabilistic risk and outcome ambiguity was seen as even more risky.     

Defining,Excusing, and Justifying Deviance: Teen Mothers' Accounts for Statutory Rape

This article examines the excuses and justifications used by teenage mothers to account for their involvement with older boyfriends. Data were gathered during a three-year participant-observation study of mothers enrolled in a high school program for adolescent parents. The teens who used justifications argued that their consent made their relationships non-deviant, and felt that they should not be construed as statutory rape offenses. The teens who used excuses perceived themselves as victims of their older boyfriends, and believed that statutory rape laws should be enforced with more regularity. As their relationships ended, the women who initially used justifications often shifted to excuses, directing the blame away from themselves and toward their boyfriends.     

‘The Worst Thing is the Screwing’ (1): Consumption and the Management of Identity in Sex Work

This paper reviews qualitative data from academic research into prostitution, accounts from prostitutes themselves in the UK and Australia, and data from one of the authors' own research in New South Wales to analyse the ways in which female sex workers negotiate and construct their sense of themselves. This analysis is informed by the suggestion that, in the act of commercial sex, the prostitute's own body is being consumed by the client, which can be seen to place certain pressures on the relationship between sex workers' professional and personal identities. Our review suggests that individual workers' tactics for managing the contradictions of working as a prostitute and preserving self‐esteem are both similar and different, even within two broadly culturally commensurable contexts, and, moreover, that not all prostitutes necessarily want to maintain a strict divide between work sex and non‐work sex in every encounter. Moreover, even for those who do, the trials of maintaining the divide are considerable, as is the permeability of boundaries between work and intimate sex.     

The Technologisation of Childhood? Young Children and Technology in the Home

We describe an 18-month empirical investigation of three- and four-year-old children's uses of technology at home, based on a survey of 346 families and 24 case studies. The findings are reported in the context of social commentators' anxieties about the ways in which childhood is being transformed by technology. Although we report evidence of some parental disquiet about the role of technology in children's lives, we illustrate some of the complexities in families' attitudes to, and uses of, technology and conclude that it is not perceived by parents to be the threat to modern childhood that is claimed.     

Changes in risky gambling prevalence among a New Zealand population cohort

Evidence suggests that problem gambling is an unstable state where gamblers move into and out of risk over time. This article looks at longitudinal changes in risky gambling and the factors associated with an increased risk (measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index [PGSI]) in the current New Zealand context, which has experienced a doubling of the electronic gaming machine (EGM) market over the last two decades. Respondents from a nationally representative baseline sample (n = 2672) were recontacted two years later to assess changes in gambling behaviours. Among the 901 respondents reached at follow-up, average gambling risk increased over time, and the prevalence of those who had at least some level of gambling risk (i.e. low-risk or greater) more than doubled (from 4.7% to 12.4%). The majority (80.2%) of those who were at risk at follow-up had not been at risk at baseline. Multivariate linear regression analyses show that the predictors of low to moderate increased risk include Pacific ethnicity; high neighbourhood deprivation status; baseline frequent, continuous gambler type; baseline PGSI status; and playing EGMs. These findings highlight the need to develop theories of gambling addiction trajectories and to identify the earliest point along the trajectory where public health interventions should occur.     

Lessons from Nigeria for improved thinking and working politically in the extractives sector

Despite the wealth that comes from being the biggest oil producer in Africa, Nigeria has some of the worst development indicators in the world. From 2011 to mid‐2016, the DFID‐funded Facility for Oil Sector Transparency and Reform (FOSTER) programme's unique design aimed to reduce incentives for the capture of oil revenue by elites and international oil companies, restoring the potential of those revenues to accelerate economic and social development. This article asks what lessons FOSTER's successes and failures offer for improved “thinking and working politically” (TWP). It examines the outcomes from five “clusters” of interventions: three viewed by the FOSTER team as successes and two as failures. The article identifies factors for successful TWP‐based programming, including the need for local ownership rooted in staff with a combination of technical expertise, a deep knowledge of the local political context and excellent networking abilities. The research used a qualitative and inductive approach. Field research was undertaken with 44 semi‐structured qualitative interviews during one month of fieldwork in Abuja and Lagos. The research also included reviews of FOSTER's internal documentation and evaluation frameworks, as well as analysis of newspaper articles and grey literature on the oil sector in Nigeria. The project offers important lessons for politically informed programming about how interventions were implemented (process), what was actually done (content) and how the project responded to changes in context that created or blocked opportunities for reform (responsiveness). The article identifies factors for successful TWP‐based programming, including the need for local ownership rooted in staff with a combination of technical expertise, a deep knowledge of the local political context and excellent networking abilities. The findings have important implications for programme design. They demonstrate the value of built‐in flexibility that allows staff to choose and switch the partners they work with and the channels they work through. They also show that a key aspect of TWP‐based programming is implicit acceptance that some failure may be unavoidable, since this permits staff to balance risk against opportunities. Finally, a better understanding of FOSTER's failures reveals the challenges of a TWP‐based approach and the trade‐offs it demands.     

Reviews

Tony (A.R.J.) Kushner, The Persistence of Prejudice: Antisemitism in British Society During the Second World War (Manchester: Manchester’ University Press, 1989), Pp.ix + 257. £29.95.

Calvin W. Ruck, The Black Battalion, 1916–1920: Canada's Best Kept Military Secret. (Halifax NS: Nimbus Publishing, 1987). Pp.124. £6.95 pb.

Valerie Marett, Immigrants Settling in the City (London: Leicester University Press, 1989). Pp.vii + 207. £35 hb.

Keith Thompson, Under Siege: Racial Violence in Britain Today, (London: Penguin Books, 1988). Pp.xx + 204. £3.99p/b.

W. Montgomery Watt, Islamic Fundamentalism and Modernity (London: Routledge, 1988). Pp.ii + 158. £25.00.     

Nonprofit sustainability during times of uncertainty

Nonprofit organizations in the United States depend on a diverse set of funding streams to sustain their operations. This study examines the ability of nonprofits to leverage funds from the private sector during the current economic downturn within four areas receiving federal funding for community and economic development. Both survey research and individual interviews were used to examine how nonprofits within these areas are incorporating their board members and community leaders to continue services during a time of resource scarcity.