Betting the farm on high food prices: A consumer based approach to agriculture protection

Our question is quite simple: If agriculture protectionism is a product of economic development, why is agriculture protected at such varying degrees by otherwise similarly developed countries? Previous attempts to fit agriculture into general models of trade policy formation have relied exclusively on producer demand for protection and merely assume the associated demand for lower prices that might come from consumers. Not surprisingly, these previous studies add only minimally to this strange phenomenon. Our method turns this approach on its head by modeling the political strategy of agriculture protection on the costs incurred by the consumer. Taking both producers and consumers into account more accurately reflects the intent of extant theoretical models of protectionism. Our results show that using the consumer as the dependent variable provides more robust results on common independent variables. Recent global events show that consumer disapproval of agriculture policies should not be underestimated by political scientists or politicians.     

The temporal relationship of marriage,conception, and birth in Massachusetts

An investigation into the timing of first births in relationship to the date of marriage in Massachusetts confirmed the finding of previous national and local birth timing studies that first births likely to have been conceived before the marriage of their parents constitute a substantial proportion of all first births. The differential frequency of premaritally conceived births among various subgroups appeared to account for the variation noted in the overall timing patterns of first births after marriage. Data were gathered through linkage of certificates of birth of a sample of legitimate first children with the marriage record of their parents. Analysis of the marriage-first birth interval by maternal age and race, type of marriage ceremony, and occupation of the bride and groom were conducted and comparisons with previously published data were made. Separate consideration was given to the frequency and characteristics of those births likely to be premaritally conceived and those likely to have been conceived after the wedding.     

The fiscal burden of rising dependency ratios

This paper explores the issue of the fiscal burden of population aging in Canada over the period from 2004 to 2026 by introducing a new methodological tool and using an approach that (a) is comprehensive with respect to government revenues and expenditures, (b) uses a fine disaggregation of government revenues and expenditures, and (c) integrates demographic, economic, and fiscal developments. The results indicate that the concerns about the ability of the existing fiscal system to withstand the pressures of population aging are unfounded. They indicate that, in the absence of an economic collapse, the existing fiscal structure will be able to handle the fiscal pressures of population aging. Instead of letting a nonexistent problem drive the course of fiscal policy in Canada, it would be more profitable to focus on avenues for making the fiscal structure a more effective tool for economic growth and human development.     

Race and the local politics of punishment in the new world of welfare

To illuminate how race affects the usage of punitive tools in policy implementation settings, we analyze sanctions imposed for noncompliant client behavior under welfare reform. Drawing on a model of racial classification and policy choice, we test four hypotheses regarding client race, local context, and sanctioning. Based on longitudinal and cross-sectional multilevel analyses of individual-level administrative data, we find that race plays a significant role in shaping sanction implementation. Its effects, however, are highly contingent on client characteristics, local political contexts, and the degree to which state governments devolve policy control to local officials.     

Parent-adolescent concordance on perceived need for mental health services and its impact on service use

Mental health service underutilization among African American adolescents is well documented, yet not fully understood. Discordance between adolescents and their parents on perceived need for seeing a counselor for an emotional need or psychiatrist for psychiatric or medical services may help explain low service use among this population. This exploratory, prospective study examined the relationship between parent-adolescent concordance on perceived need for emotional counseling or psychiatric services and mental health service use. The relationships between gender and perceived service need and concordance and adolescent severity of depressive symptoms were also explored. Parent-adolescent dyads (n = 108) receiving community-based adolescent outpatient mental health services responded to interview questions concerning their perception of whether an emotional counselor and a psychiatrist were needed in the past six months. Findings revealed low parent-adolescent concordance on perceived need for an emotional counselor and a psychiatrist. A greater proportion of adolescents reported a need than parents. There was no association between gender and perceived need for an emotional counselor and a psychiatrist. Lower rates of parent-adolescent concordance were found among youth reporting elevated depressive symptoms compared to youth reporting normal range symptoms. Concordant dyads kept a higher number of appointments than discordant dyads. Implications for clinical social work practice and future research are discussed.     

Comments from the Trenches: Proposed Changes to the DSM-V Classification of Pathological Gambling

The proposed DSM-V changes related to the pathological gambling diagnosis hold far-reaching implications, yet these modifications have been met with little public attention. This letter addresses the three changes proposed including the diagnosis’ reclassification alongside other addictive behaviors, the lowering of the pathological gambling threshold to the endorsement of 4 symptoms, and the removal of the “illegal acts” criterion. Support for the initial change is well documented, but there is evidence to suggest that the latter two changes should be reconsidered.     

Understanding learning behavior using location and prior performance as moderators

This study proposes and validates a research model that examines individuals’ learning behavior. Drawing on social cognitive theory (SCT), this study postulates self-efficacy, outcome expectations, social influence, and facilitating conditions as the key drivers of individuals’ learning behavior. Learners’ residential location and prior performance are also considered as moderators in the proposed model. This study contributes to the education literature by extending traditional SCT models to examine the previously unexplored area of environmental factors containing social influence and facilitating conditions, by validating idiosyncratic drivers of learning behavior and by presenting an operationalization of location and prior performance as two moderators in the learning behavioral formation. Finally, implications and limitations of the research are also provided.     

A time-varying measurement error model for age of onset of a psychiatric diagnosis: applied to first depressive episode diagnosed by the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI)

A substantial degree of uncertainty exists surrounding the reconstruction of events based on memory recall. This form of measurement error affects the performance of structured interviews such as the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), an important tool to assess mental health in the community. Measurement error probably explains the discrepancy in estimates between longitudinal studies with repeated assessments (the gold-standard), yielding approximately constant rates of depression, versus cross-sectional studies which often find increasing rates closer in time to the interview. Repeated assessments of current status (or recent history) are more reliable than reconstruction of a person's psychiatric history based on a single interview. In this paper, we demonstrate a method of estimating a time-varying measurement error distribution in the age of onset of an initial depressive episode, as diagnosed by the CIDI, based on an assumption regarding age-specific incidence rates. High-dimensional non-parametric estimation is achieved by the EM-algorithm with smoothing. The method is applied to data from a Norwegian mental health survey in 2000. The measurement error distribution changes dramatically from 1980 to 2000, with increasing variance and greater bias further away in time from the interview. Some influence of the measurement error on already published results is found.