A neural' network applied to tlie calculation of lyapunov exponents

Chaotic deterministics systems are characterised by the instability of orbits on an attractor. The largest Lyapunov exponent measures on average the exponential growth rate of small deviations along an orbit and gives as such an indication whether or not the dynamic generating process is unstable. The direct method for calculation of the Lyapunov exponent, based on finite differences as formulated by the so-called Wolf-algorithm,fails on medium sized data sets. Alternatively, one can use a neural network with backpropagation to estimate a data generating function. This so-calletl indirect method enables us to recover the theoretical value of the largest Lyapunov exponent in several examples.     

“如实述说”：逻辑中的信息流动

本文把逻辑表述为关于信息流动的一般理论，它涉及推理、观察和社会交往等人类能力。由此导致的多主体动力学可以用关于信息更新的动态认知逻辑系统来加以研究，后者也能够处理信念更新和学习问题；可以把这种语义动态学与作为信息阐明的推理的语法过程相结合：本文最后讨论了如何（将已有结果）扩展到主体之间的长期互动，并描述了（主体的）偏好和目标，以及由此导致的逻辑、博弈论和社会选择理论之间的相互作用。     

Modeling Individual Cell Lag Time Distributions for Listeria monocytogenes

The food industry faces two paradoxical demands: on the one hand, foods need to be microbiologically safe for consumption and on the other hand, consumers want fresh, minimally processed foods. To meet these demands, more insight into the mechanisms of microbial growth is needed, which includes, among others, the microbial lag phase. This is the time needed by bacterial cells to adapt to a new environment (for example, after food product contamination) before starting an exponential growth regime. Since food products are often contaminated with low amounts of pathogenic microorganisms, it is important to know the distribution of these individual cell lag times to make accurate predictions concerning food safety. More precisely, cells with the shortest lag times (i.e., appearing in the left tail of the distribution) are largely decisive for the outgrowth of the population. In this study, an integrated modeling approach is proposed and applied to an existing data set of individual cell lag time measurements of Listeria monocytogenes. In a first step, a logistic modeling approach is applied to predict the fraction of zero-lag cells (which start growing immediately) as a function of temperature, pH, and water activity. For the nonzero-lag cells, the mean and variance of the lag time distribution are modeled with a hyperbolic-type model structure. This mean and variance allow identification of the parameters of a two-parameter Weibull distribution, representing the nonzero-lag cell lag time distribution. The integration of the developed models allows prediction of a global distribution of individual cell lag times for any combination of environmental conditions in the interpolation domain of the original temperature, pH, and water activity settings. The global fitting quality of the model is quantified using several measures indicating that the model gives accurate predictions, erring slightly on the fail-safe side when predicting the shortest lag times.     

Benefit dependency: The pros and cons of using “caseload” data for national and international comparisons

Policy‐makers in advanced welfare states have increasingly expressed concerns over large numbers of working‐age people claiming social security support. Accordingly, policies aimed at reducing the level of “benefit dependency” have gained prominence. However, such policies rest on shaky empirical evidence. Systematic collections of national “caseload” data are rare, social security programmes overlap and administrative categories vary over time. The internationally inconsistent treatment of national transfer programmes provides a further challenge for cross‐national comparisons. This article first identifies and discusses several of these problems, and ways in which they may be addressed. It then employs administrative claimant data from six European countries as a way of illustrating trends over time and across countries. The underlying aim is to explore the scientific potential of benefit recipient numbers as an indicator for welfare state change over time and across countries.     

Soil-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide,methane and nitrous oxide in urban garden systems: impact of irrigation,fertiliser and mulch

Urban green spaces provide important ecosystem services, such as amenity, biodiversity, productivity, climate amelioration, hydrological and biogeochemical cycling. Intensively managed urban gardens can sequester carbon through vegetation growth and soil C increase, but may experience nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions and reduced soil methane (CH₄) uptake from irrigation and fertiliser use. Soil atmosphere exchange of N₂O, CH₄ and carbon dioxide (CO₂) was measured in lawn and wood chip mulched garden areas in Melbourne, Australia in winter, spring and summer under various water and fertiliser regimes. Gas exchange before and after lawn fertiliser application was measured continuously for three weeks using an automated chamber system. Applying fertiliser led to a peak N₂O emission of >60 μg N m⁻² h⁻¹, but overall only weekly irrigation (10 mm) significantly increased mean soil N₂O emissions above that in other treatments. Under mulch, mean soil N₂O emissions (14.0 μg N m⁻² h⁻¹) were significantly smaller than from irrigated lawn (27.9 μg N m⁻² h⁻¹), whereas mean soil CH₄ uptake under mulch (−30.7 μg C m⁻² h⁻¹) was significantly greater (p < 0.01) than in any lawn treatment. Lawns were either a weak CH₄ sink or source. Soil C density (0–25 cm) under mulch (12.5 kg C m⁻²) was greater that under lawn (8.0 kg C m⁻²). On a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-e) basis, soil N₂O emissions offset the benefits of soil CH₄ uptake. Mulched garden areas provide greatest C sequestration potential in soil and vegetation and the smallest non-CO₂ emissions, as soil CH₄ uptake offsets a large fraction of soil N₂O emissions. Results of this study suggest that reducing the irrigation and fertiliser application to lawns can help mitigate GHG emissions from urban garden systems, and increasing the area of mulched perennial garden beds can also provide net GHG benefits; however, this needs to be tested in other garden systems with different soil types and environmental conditions.     

The state and use of municipal tree inventories in Swedish municipalities – results from a national survey

Urban trees are an essential component of urban ecosystems, and management of this resource constitutes an essential element of urban open space management. However, municipal tree inventories in Sweden and elsewhere have received limited attention. It is unknown how common municipal tree inventories are in Sweden, factors governing whether a municipality has an inventory and what the inventories are used for. This study therefore sought to: Create an overview of the state of Swedish municipal tree inventories and determine how municipality size, green space budget and management organisation affect the presence and scope of municipal tree inventories. The research questions examined were: What is the current state of Swedish municipal tree inventories? and what affects the status of these municipal tree inventories? A survey with questions related to strategic and operational perspectives of municipal tree inventories, e.g. how they are conducted and used, together with questions relating to budget and potential use of consultants, was sent to all 290 Swedish municipalities. The response rate was 55.5%. The main findings were that municipality size affects whether a municipality has an urban tree inventory and that the municipal organisation form affects how inventories are used. The existence of an inventory also increased the probability of the municipality having a tree management plan. Based on these results we recommend further research related to strategic management perspectives of tree inventories.     

Effects of ground surface permeability on the growth of urban linden trees

Street trees are an important part of urban vegetation due to their provisioning of different types of ecosystem services such as local climate regulation and contribution to aesthetical and recreational values. In order to provide these services, urban trees need to endure many stress factors not present in natural environments, such as the widespread use of impervious surfaces in the vicinity of street trees. However, few studies have evaluated the effect of this potential stress factor on urban tree growth. The aim of this study was therefore to investigate how ground surface permeability affects stem and current-year shoot growth of linden (Tilia europaea) street trees in Gothenburg, Sweden. We found that a small fraction of permeable ground surface in the vertically projected tree crown area caused lower stem growth and strongly suppressed current-year shoot growth. This finding can guide future city planning, demonstrating that the vitality of street trees is compromised when the permeable surface area in the vicinity of the tree is small.