A global risk assessment model for civil wars

In this study, we construct a multivariate model that assesses the risk of an outbreak of civil war in a country over a period of 5 years into the future. In addition to structural factors of state weakness, which have dominated the literature on civil war onset, this model includes repression of basic human rights to personal integrity – an important harbinger of wars to come – as an aspect of state behavior. Our aim is not to explore the causal factors of civil war onset, but to build a model that includes indicators that correlate with civil war outbreak and may be used to predict it. Based on two versions of the model – logit and neural network – out-of-sample risk assessments for three different time periods are generated and compared to the historical record of civil war outbreak during those years. In addition, the model’s ability to produce in-sample risk assessments over a 5-year period is tested. Finally, we compute truly predictive civil war risk assessments for all countries for which data are available, for the years 2008–2012. The analyses show that with a relatively simple model and based on publicly available data sources, meaningful civil war risk assessments can be computed. The quality of the predictions exceeds that of prominent studies, in which the risk of interstate war is assessed.     

Regional Contexts and Family Formation: Evidence from the German Family Panel

Substantial regional variation in marriage and fertility patterns continues to exist in Germany. Following a multilevel approach, we exploit longitudinal data from the German Family Panel (pairfam), enhanced by an array of district-level variables, to investigate the extent to which spatial variations in men’s and women’s family formation behaviors result from differences in population composition or from ‘true’ contextual effects. Our multilevel analyses provide evidence for only small—if any—contextual effects on individuals’ family formation behaviors (except for a continuation of significant differences between East and West Germany). However, we still find indication that (1) regional economic circumstances matter in determining individuals’ fertility intentions as well as their transition to first marriage, (2) regional milieus are associated with individuals’ fertility, and that (3) selective family migration takes place. While it seems that social interaction rather than differences in local opportunity structures plays a role here, more research is needed to further substantiate this conclusion.     

The Monetary Value of Voluntary Work: Conceptual and Empirical Comparisons

The purpose of this article is to provide a comprehensive comparison of different valuation approaches for estimating the monetary value of voluntary work both conceptually and empirically. This study adds to the literature by suggesting two approaches: (1) the leisure-adjusted opportunity cost approach (OCA), which corrects for voluntary work being a leisure substitute, is suggested as an alternative to the alternative-employment wage approach (AEWA). And (2) the volunteer judgment replacement wage approach (RWA), where volunteers state a wage rate that they consider adequate for the task they perform, is suggested as an alternative to the generic RWA. Using data on volunteers in German non-profit sports clubs (n = 566), the valuations show that the monetary value of 1 h of voluntary work is highest for the generic RWA (€14.27), followed by the AEWA (€14.03), the volunteer judgment RWA (€9.98), and the leisure-adjusted OCA (€1.78).

     

Efficient Institutions and Effective Deterrence: On Timing and Uncertainty of Formal Sanctions

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Economic theory suggests that the deterrence of deviant behavior is driven by a combination of severity and certainty of punishment. This paper presents the first...     

Social Security Systems in Low-Income Countries: Concepts, Constraints and the Need for Cooperation

This paper describes existing social security systems in developing countries and analyses their institutional strengths and weaknesses. To this end, it identifies four main providers of social security, namely the State, the market, member-based organizations, and private households. Given the strengths and weaknesses of each system, the paper explores the possibilities of a public-private partnership which should be based on the use of local information on the one hand while profiting from possibilities of risk sharing and risk pooling on the other.     

Kooperation unter Konkurrenten? Regionale Kulturmuster und soziale Praktiken betriebsübergreifender Personalwirtschaft

During the recent financial and economic crisis, trade unions and employers’ associations have increasingly concluded collective agreements on so-called “collegial temporary work” that enables flexible deployment of employees, especially for small and medium sized enterprises. Empirical results show large differences in the application of those collective agreements: While the possibilities of the agreements were sometimes actively used in some regions, companies in other regions avoided implementation – despite their potential to cope with important challenges of economic crises and skill shortages. The paper selects a structuration theory perspective to analyze the reasons for the differences in the practice of this human resource management strategy by comparing two German regions (Braunschweig and the Ruhr area). The differences in the practices can be traced back to regional cultural patterns, interests of key actors, and the degree of involvement during the implementation period.     

Using crushed waste bricks for urban greening with contrasting grassland mixtures: no negative effects of brick-augmented substrates varying in soil type,moisture and acid pre-treatment

Ecological restoration aims at supporting biodiversity and ecosystem services, and urban greening is a great opportunity to achieve this goal. This is facilitated by species-rich seed mixtures based on local provenances, which are designed for certain nutrient and moisture regimes based on functional plant traits. Such grassland mixtures might be cultivated on crushed waste bricks, which would be a new component of water-holding urban substrates. Thus, we studied the effects of brick quantity and quality, acid pre-treatment of bricks, soil type and moisture on biomass of designed seed mixtures. Three greenhouse experiments were conducted, with substrates consisting of different brick ratios (5% vs. 30%), brick types (clean production waste vs. demolition material), and brick treatments (acid vs. control) tested on three trait-based mixtures and a non-regional commercial standard mixture. The trait-based mixtures included information on specific leaf area, seed mass and grass-to-legume ratio. There were no negative effects of demolition bricks, soil texture and moisture on grassland biomass. Acid-treated clean porous bricks improved biomass production of the standard and intermediate mixtures, while the effect was minimal with demolition bricks. Designed seed mixtures had a biomass similar to the standard mixture under dry conditions but did not benefit from high moisture like the standard mixture. In conclusion, waste bricks are a useful additive for urban restoration substrates to save raw material, and specifically designed regional mixtures can replace commercial grassland types on these substrates.