The Folk Theorem for Games with Private Almost‐Perfect Monitoring

We prove the folk theorem for discounted repeated games under private, almost‐perfect monitoring. Our result covers all finite, n‐player games that satisfy the usual full‐dimensionality condition. Mixed strategies are allowed in determining the individually rational payoffs. We assume no cheap‐talk communication between players and no public randomization device.     

Coerced Sexual Experiences Among Adolescent Substance Abusers: A Potential Pathway to Increased Vulnerability to HIV Exposure

This study describes the forced sexual experiences, serious internalizing problems, risky sexual behavior, and alcohol-related correlates of risky sexual behavior of 120 substance abusing adolescents and young adults (87 men, 33 women; mean age = 17.2 years) undergoing treatment. Prior coerced sexual experiences were associated with suicidal thoughts and attempts, higher levels of risky sexual behaviors, avoidance motives for drinking, and sexual decision-making conducive to risky sexual behavior. Sexual coercion was associated with patterns of sexual behavior and alcohol use that potentially increase vulnerability to HIV exposure. Social workers can play a number of significant roles in addressing ongoing psychological distress associated with sexual coercion among these predominantly female adolescents. Therefore, effective social work practice should enhance treatment effectiveness and reduce risk for a range of maladaptive outcomes including exposure to sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and revictimization.     

Modeling Risk‐Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects

Knowledge on failure events and their associated factors, gained from past construction projects, is regarded as potentially extremely useful in risk management. However, a number of circumstances are constraining its wider use. Such knowledge is usually scarce, seldom documented, and even unavailable when it is required. Further, there exists a lack of proven methods to integrate and analyze it in a cost‐effective way. This article addresses possible options to overcome these difficulties. Focusing on limited but critical potential failure events, the article demonstrates how knowledge on a number of important potential failure events in tunnel works can be integrated. The problem of unavailable or incomplete information was addressed by gathering judgments from a group of experts. The elicited expert knowledge consisted of failure scenarios and associated probabilistic information. This information was integrated using Bayesian belief‐networks‐based models that were first customized in order to deal with the expected divergence in judgments caused by epistemic uncertainty of risks. The work described in the article shows that the developed models that integrate risk‐related knowledge provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures.     

Re-distributed manufacturing and the food-water-energy nexus: opportunities and challenges

Abstract

Addressing the intersection of two important emerging research areas, re-distributed manufacturing (RDM) and the food-energy-water (FEW) nexus, this work combines insights from engineering, business and policy perspectives and explores opportunities and challenges towards a more localized and sustainable food system. Analysis centred on two specific food products, namely bread and tomato paste reveals that the feasibility and potential of RDM vary with the type of food product and the supply chain (SC) components. Physically, energy efficiency, water consumption and reduction of waste and carbon footprint may be affected by scale and location of production activities and potentials of industrial symbiosis. From the business perspective, novel products, new markets and new business models are expected in order for food RDM to penetrate within the established food industry. Studies on policies, through the lens of public procurement, call for solid evidence of envisioned environmental, social and economic benefits of a more localized food system. An initial integrated framework is proposed for understanding and assessing food RDM and the FEW nexus.     

Kooperation unter Konkurrenten? Regionale Kulturmuster und soziale Praktiken betriebsübergreifender Personalwirtschaft

During the recent financial and economic crisis, trade unions and employers’ associations have increasingly concluded collective agreements on so-called “collegial temporary work” that enables flexible deployment of employees, especially for small and medium sized enterprises. Empirical results show large differences in the application of those collective agreements: While the possibilities of the agreements were sometimes actively used in some regions, companies in other regions avoided implementation – despite their potential to cope with important challenges of economic crises and skill shortages. The paper selects a structuration theory perspective to analyze the reasons for the differences in the practice of this human resource management strategy by comparing two German regions (Braunschweig and the Ruhr area). The differences in the practices can be traced back to regional cultural patterns, interests of key actors, and the degree of involvement during the implementation period.     

The effect of ergonomic intervention on neck/shoulder and low back pain

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of two types of ergonomic intervention on pain and pain-related disability in the neck/shoulder and low back regions. A cohort of 492 subjects of various occupations with non-specific neck/shoulder or low back pain was followed over a five to six year period. The study subjects were classified into four intervention groups: no ergonomic intervention, educational worksite intervention, workplace intervention, and combined workplace and educational worksite intervention. The group with no ergonomic intervention was used as the reference group. The changes in pain intensity and pain-related disability from baseline to follow-up in each of the three groups with intervention were compared to the changes in the reference group. During the follow-up, 39% of the subjects had received ergonomic intervention. The average change in pain intensity and pain-related disability was smaller in the educational worksite intervention group than in the reference group. The average reduction of pain intensity and pain-related disability did not differ between the two other intervention groups and the reference group. Thus, for subjects still at work, ergonomic intervention seemed to be ineffective for reducing neck/shoulder and low back pain and pain-related disability.     

Why does myopia decrease the willingness to invest? Is it myopic loss aversion or myopic loss probability aversion?

For loss averse investors, a sequence of risky investments looks less attractive if it is evaluated myopically—an effect called myopic loss aversion (MLA). The consequences of this effect have been confirmed in several experiments and its robustness is largely undisputed. The effect’s causes, however, have not been thoroughly examined with regard to one important aspect. Due to the construction of the lotteries that were used in the experiments, none of the studies is able to distinguish between MLA and an explanation based on (myopic) loss probability aversion (MLPA). This distinction is important, however, in discussion of the practical relevance and the generalizability of the phenomenon. We designed an experiment that is able to disentangle lottery attractiveness and loss probabilities. Our analysis reveals that mere loss probabilities are not as important in this dynamic context as previous findings in other domains suggest. The results favor the MLA over the MLPA explanation.     

A recursive approach to parameter estimation in regression and time series models

In this paper we discuss the recursive (or on line) estimation in (i) regression and (ii) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series models. The adopted approach uses Kalman filtering techniques to calculate estimates recursively. This approach is used for the estimation of constant as well as time varying parameters. In the first section of the paper we consider the linear regression model. We discuss recursive estimation both for constant and time varying parameters. For constant parameters, Kalman filtering specializes to recursive least squares. In general, we allow the parameters to vary according to an autoregressive integrated moving average process and update the parameter estimates recursively. Since the stochastic model for the parameter changes will "be rarely known, simplifying assumptions have to be made. In particular we assume a random walk model for the time varying parameters and show how to determine whether the parameters are changing over time. This is illustrated with an example.