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121.
Johannes Leder 《Risk analysis》2019,39(5):1105-1124
The present study investigated expatriate humanitarian aid workers’ perceptions and responses to uncertain security while deployed in the Sudan. Interviews conducted in Khartoum (n = 7) and Darfur (n = 17) focused on risk perception, concern for personal security, and strategies used to function well in an insecure environment. Despite a high perceived general risk, as well as broad knowledge and experience with security incidents, participants often expressed low concern. General adjustment processes were drawn on to explain this finding, while different constellations of processes resulted in different patterns of adjustment. Functional adjustment, resulting in adequate risk perception, protective behavior, protection, and low concern, was characterized by a constellation of complementary activation of accommodation and assimilation processes.  相似文献   
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The feasibility of a new clinical trial may be increased by incorporating historical data of previous trials. In the particular case where only data from a single historical trial are available, there exists no clear recommendation in the literature regarding the most favorable approach. A main problem of the incorporation of historical data is the possible inflation of the type I error rate. A way to control this type of error is the so‐called power prior approach. This Bayesian method does not “borrow” the full historical information but uses a parameter 0 ≤ δ ≤ 1 to determine the amount of borrowed data. Based on the methodology of the power prior, we propose a frequentist framework that allows incorporation of historical data from both arms of two‐armed trials with binary outcome, while simultaneously controlling the type I error rate. It is shown that for any specific trial scenario a value δ > 0 can be determined such that the type I error rate falls below the prespecified significance level. The magnitude of this value of δ depends on the characteristics of the data observed in the historical trial. Conditionally on these characteristics, an increase in power as compared to a trial without borrowing may result. Similarly, we propose methods how the required sample size can be reduced. The results are discussed and compared to those obtained in a Bayesian framework. Application is illustrated by a clinical trial example.  相似文献   
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Theory and Decision - There is evidence that bidders fall prey to the winner’s curse because they fail to extract information from hypothetical events—like winning an auction. This...  相似文献   
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A stylized fact of empirical work on the relationship of wages and unemployment using macro data for European countries is a combination of strong autocorrelation of wages and a significant negative long‐run relationship of wages and unemployment. However, this view is challenged by empirical work relying on regional or micro data providing evidence for an instantaneous adjustment of wages to variations in the level of unemployment. Exploiting regional panel data for West Germany, we show that, at least for the years 1990–94, regional and macro data mirror the same phenomenon. Our results are broadly consistent with the observed increase in the natural rate of unemployment in Germany.  相似文献   
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We solve the problem of a social planner who seeks to minimize inequality via transfers with a fixed public budget in a distribution of exogenously given incomes. The appropriate solution method depends on the objective function: If it is convex, it can be solved by an interior-point algorithm. If it is quasiconvex, the bisection method can be used. Using artificial and real-world data, we implement the procedures and show that the optimal transfer scheme need not comply with a transfer scheme that perfectly equalizes incomes at the bottom of the distribution.  相似文献   
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This study was an economic evaluation conducted alongside a cluster randomised controlled trial with a follow-up of 12 months. The aim was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of the Stay@Work Participatory Ergonomics programme (PE) compared to a control group (no PE). In total, 37 departments (n=3047 workers) were randomised into either the intervention (PE) or control group (no PE). During a meeting, working groups followed the steps of PE, and composed and prioritized ergonomic measures aimed to prevent low back pain (LBP) and neck pain (NP). Working groups had to implement the ergonomic measures within three months in their department. Cost data included those directly related to LBP and NP. Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) and cost-benefit analyses (CBA) were performed. After 12 months, health care costs and costs of productivity losses were higher in the intervention group than in the control group (the mean total cost difference was $/euro$127; 95% CI $/euro$-164 - $/euro$418). From a societal perspective, the CEA showed that PE was not cost-effective compared to control for LBP and NP prevalence, work performance, and sick leave. The CBA from a company perspective showed a monetary loss of $/euro$78 per worker. The PE programme was neither cost-effective nor cost-beneficial on any of the effect measures.  相似文献   
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In a recent paper in The Sociological Review, Atkinson and Deeming argue that tastes in food are homologous to the social space, exactly as it was in Bourdieu's Distinction. This would involve differences in food tastes not only along the class hierarchy, but also a clear‐cut divide by the relative weight of cultural and economic capital. However, Atkinson and Deeming base their claims on insufficient data analysis: They misinterpret their own correspondence analysis and the additional tables, which they in turn fail to subject to even the most basic statistical analysis. We show that the results they present are actually at odds with their own interpretations and main conclusions. It is not just that Atkinson and Deeming's arguments lack support; their proposition about a culinary division between cultural and economic class fractions is contradicted by their own data.  相似文献   
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