A global risk assessment model for civil wars

In this study, we construct a multivariate model that assesses the risk of an outbreak of civil war in a country over a period of 5 years into the future. In addition to structural factors of state weakness, which have dominated the literature on civil war onset, this model includes repression of basic human rights to personal integrity – an important harbinger of wars to come – as an aspect of state behavior. Our aim is not to explore the causal factors of civil war onset, but to build a model that includes indicators that correlate with civil war outbreak and may be used to predict it. Based on two versions of the model – logit and neural network – out-of-sample risk assessments for three different time periods are generated and compared to the historical record of civil war outbreak during those years. In addition, the model’s ability to produce in-sample risk assessments over a 5-year period is tested. Finally, we compute truly predictive civil war risk assessments for all countries for which data are available, for the years 2008–2012. The analyses show that with a relatively simple model and based on publicly available data sources, meaningful civil war risk assessments can be computed. The quality of the predictions exceeds that of prominent studies, in which the risk of interstate war is assessed.     

Social Security Systems in Low-Income Countries: Concepts, Constraints and the Need for Cooperation

This paper describes existing social security systems in developing countries and analyses their institutional strengths and weaknesses. To this end, it identifies four main providers of social security, namely the State, the market, member-based organizations, and private households. Given the strengths and weaknesses of each system, the paper explores the possibilities of a public-private partnership which should be based on the use of local information on the one hand while profiting from possibilities of risk sharing and risk pooling on the other.     

The Identity‐Matching Principle: Corporate and Organizational Identification in a Franchising System*

This paper examines corporate and organizational identification in franchisee organizations from the perspective of the social identity approach. We propose the identity‐matching principle (IMP) as a heuristic for understanding and predicting the different effects of nested identifications. According to the IMP, when identifications and relevant behavioural or attitudinal outcomes address the same level of categorization, their relationship will be stronger. A study is presented with employees (n=281) matched to managers (n=101). Supporting the IMP, organizational identification (but not corporate identification) predicted customer‐oriented behaviour on the level of the local organization, whereas corporate identification (but not organizational identification) predicted attitude toward corporate citizenship behaviour. Furthermore, multilevel analyses showed that these relationships were enhanced in organizations where managers displayed the respective behaviours themselves to a greater extent. Implications for theorizing about leadership and organizational attachments are discussed alongside recommendations for organizational practitioners.     

Efficient Institutions and Effective Deterrence: On Timing and Uncertainty of Formal Sanctions

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Economic theory suggests that the deterrence of deviant behavior is driven by a combination of severity and certainty of punishment. This paper presents the first...     

The Monetary Value of Voluntary Work: Conceptual and Empirical Comparisons

The purpose of this article is to provide a comprehensive comparison of different valuation approaches for estimating the monetary value of voluntary work both conceptually and empirically. This study adds to the literature by suggesting two approaches: (1) the leisure-adjusted opportunity cost approach (OCA), which corrects for voluntary work being a leisure substitute, is suggested as an alternative to the alternative-employment wage approach (AEWA). And (2) the volunteer judgment replacement wage approach (RWA), where volunteers state a wage rate that they consider adequate for the task they perform, is suggested as an alternative to the generic RWA. Using data on volunteers in German non-profit sports clubs (n = 566), the valuations show that the monetary value of 1 h of voluntary work is highest for the generic RWA (€14.27), followed by the AEWA (€14.03), the volunteer judgment RWA (€9.98), and the leisure-adjusted OCA (€1.78).

     

Regional Contexts and Family Formation: Evidence from the German Family Panel

Substantial regional variation in marriage and fertility patterns continues to exist in Germany. Following a multilevel approach, we exploit longitudinal data from the German Family Panel (pairfam), enhanced by an array of district-level variables, to investigate the extent to which spatial variations in men’s and women’s family formation behaviors result from differences in population composition or from ‘true’ contextual effects. Our multilevel analyses provide evidence for only small—if any—contextual effects on individuals’ family formation behaviors (except for a continuation of significant differences between East and West Germany). However, we still find indication that (1) regional economic circumstances matter in determining individuals’ fertility intentions as well as their transition to first marriage, (2) regional milieus are associated with individuals’ fertility, and that (3) selective family migration takes place. While it seems that social interaction rather than differences in local opportunity structures plays a role here, more research is needed to further substantiate this conclusion.     

Neue Perspektiven in der Führungsentwicklung

The article presents a new model for leadership development: the leadership holarchy. The leadership holarchy can provide orientation in the developmental process and can sharpen the awareness of the coach for challenges and limits in the development of a leader. The model can be used as a diagnostic instrument in consulting and research and for the planning of trainings and seminars. Based on recent literature from personal development in adulthood, different stages of leadership development are described. In addition to the leadership holarchy, the article depicts the points of reference in developmental theory and theory of leadership. The author holds the view that an explicit development-based approach on leadership opens up new perspectives for coaching and consulting.     

Using Prior Risk‐Related Knowledge to Support Risk Management Decisions: Lessons Learnt from a Tunneling Project

The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site‐ and project‐ specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk‐related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk‐related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk‐related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic‐causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are discussed.