Coherency conditions for finite exchangeable inference

Summary We idenify the invertible coherent functional relation between an array of asserted conditional probabilities and the probability distribution for the sum of events that are regarded exchangeably, in the regular case thatP(N _N+1 |S _N =a) ∈ (0, 1) for everya=0, 1, ...,N. The result is used to construct a useful algebraic and geometrical representation of all coherent inferences in the regular case, including those that are nonlinear in the sum of the conditioning events. The special case in which conditional probabilities mimic observed frequencies within (0, 1) receives an exact solution, which allows an easy interpretation of its surprising consequences. Finally, we introduce a new direction in research on prior opinion assessment that this approach, inverse to the usual one, suggests.     

Dependent masking and system life data analysis: Bayesian inference for two-component systems

Data from field operations of a system is often used to estimate the reliability of components. Under ideal circumstances, this system field data contains the time to failure along with information on the exact component responsible for the system failure. However, in many cases, the exact component causing the failure of the system cannot be identified, and is considered to be masked. Previously developed models for estimation of component reliability from masked system life data have been based upon the assumption that masking occurs independently of the true cause of system failure. In this paper we develop a Bayesian methodology for estimating component reliabilities from masked system life data when the probability of masking is dependent upon the true cause of system failure. The Bayesian approach is illustrated for the case of a two-component system of exponentially distributed components.     

Risk and final offer arbitration usage rates: Evidence from major league baseball

We use major league baseball data to examine risk and final-offer arbitration usage. Risk attitudes are proxied by the likelihood that FOA-generated salary increases place the player’s baseball employment at risk. Employment risk is inversely related to player quality. Our evidence suggests that higher-quality (low-risk) players are more likely to file for arbitration and seek an arbitrated settlement than lowerquality (high-risk) players. We thank Paul Burgess for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

Zusammenfassungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Finnish incomes policy: Unions and other constraints

This paper charts the evolution of incomes policy in Finland. Especial emphasis is placed on the constraints on incomes policy that have operated here, as indeed in other Nordic countries, ultimately to curb the corporatist experiment.