世界新秩序和美国对华新政策

本文论述美国１９９７年后对华新政策。文章综述９０年代起美国历届政府的对华的检讨,到１９９７年克林顿政府采取对华新政策,主要是稳定亚洲、中国大陆、台湾,以确保美国在亚洲战略地位和经济利益     

Estimating chance reproducibility in Guttman Scaling

A definition of reproducibility in Guttman Scaling and two chance measures of reproducibility are suggested. The first measure assumes that the items are independent. The second method assumes nonindependent items and fits respondent and item margins by an iterative method used in fitting log-linear models. Chance reproducibility is conceptualized in terms of assumptions about respondent variability.     

The success of protest groups: Multivariate analyses

This paper reviews earlier research and presents new analytical findings regarding the outcomes of social movements. Using the resource mobilization/management approach, empirical propositions that seek to explain protest group success or failure are tested. Based upon data gathered from a sample of 53 US protest groups, the causal models explained the majority of the variance in degree of success between these groups. Our findings indicate that protest groups which threaten to replace or destroy established groups are usually unsuccessful, and those having many strong alliances tend to be more successful than groups fighting alone. The use of violence does not greatly aid the prediction of group outcome because of the unpredictable, ambivalent reaction to violence by established groups.     

Open Order Rescheduling in Job Shops with Demand Uncertainty: A Simulation Study

This paper addresses the problem of open order rescheduling in a job shop. Results are reported of experiments conducted in a simulation model of an 8-machine job shop. Four different order updating policies are examined. The due-date process is modeled to include several realistic features about the pattern of due-date variability. These features are parameterized and tested at several levels. Tardiness results indicate that open order rescheduling is beneficial only when allowances are loosely set. The results indicate that inventory performance is improved by order rescheduling, particularly in cases when due dates are revised to earlier times than originally forecast.     

ON THE DESIGN OF HIERARCHICAL PRODUCTION PLANNING SYSTEMS

To provide effective managerial support for decisions related to production planning and scheduling processes, it is useful to partition the set of decisions into a hierarchical framework. In the resulting system, higher level decisions impose constraints on lower level actions, and lower level decisions provide the necessary feed-back to reevaluate higher level actions. The purpose of this paper is to suggest optimum procedures to deal with the resulting subproblems and to analyze the interaction mechanisms among the different hierarchical levels. Computational results are given.     

A COMPUTER SIMULATION APPROACH TO THE TEACHING OF MAIL SURVEY STRATEGY ALTERNATIVES AND CHOICE

The author uses a computer simulation of mail questionnaire response rates to acquaint students with trade-offs in terms of survey cost, accuracy, and time. In the absence of a theoretical base in the literature, the approach familiarizes students with current issues and problems, and helps to develop a decision-making framework for this survey method. A step-by-step procedure emphasizing student involvement is described.