Need,well‐being and outcomes: the development of policy‐thinking for children's services 1989–2004

This paper describes how government policy thinking about the well‐being of children and young people developed between the Children Act 1989 and the Children Act 2004. These two Acts are milestone statements about how services to children in England and Wales should be delivered. It is an account informed by the author's own experience as a government adviser on children's social care over much of this period and supporting documentation. It traces the strands of government policy thinking about how to deliver services for children from children in need to the articulation of the five Every Child Matters outcomes. It argues that attempts to achieve coordinated service planning for children and young people played a significant role in the formulation of shared objectives and the articulation of child outcomes. However, it argues that looking at real outcomes exposes how children in the UK do relatively badly compared with other rich nations. It questions whether we can realistically expect our services to deliver significantly improved outcomes given the impact of enduring inequality in our society. This paper is dedicated to the memory of David Lambert CBE, former Assistant Chief Inspector of the Social Services Inspectorate in London, who died suddenly on 7 October 2010. He lent me articles to assist me in writing this paper.     

Tanzania's Cotton Sector: Reforms,Constraints and Challenges

This article contributes to the liberalisation debate in Africa by assessing the policy reforms in the Tanzanian cotton sector, the outcome of which has been mixed. The grower's share in the fob price has increased; the growers receive payments promptly; the ginning capacity has increased considerably. However, supply response did not take place; the input distribution system collapsed, while the mixing of cotton varieties constitutes a threat to the viability of the sector. The co‐operative unions figure prominently in the sector, although for all practical purposes they are bankrupt enterprises. Taxation is excessive, the tax code is complicated and tax evasion is pervasive. The cotton board and the ministries still overregulate the sector. The quality of statistics remains poor.     

Chronic Child Abuse: The Characteristics and Careers of Children Caught in the Child Protection System

The introduction of the Quality Protects initiative in Englandand the focus on performance management has challenged socialservices departments to examine the systems, processes and outcomesfor children who have their name on a child protection register.Research indicates that approximately one-quarter of the situationsin which children are registered could be described as chronic—thatis, they remain on the child protection register for significantperiods of time, experience more than one period of registrationor suffer a further incident of significant harm whilst subjectto a child protection plan. In this article, the findings froma research study conducted into this group of vulnerable childrenare reported, focusing on the characteristics of the childrenand their families, and their careers in the child protectionsystem. The paper concludes with observations about the weakconceptualization of performance management and the need torecognize the complexity of the factors that influence children’scareers in the child protection system.     

On the existence of linear trend free block designs

We present a class of counerexamples for a conjecture on the existence or linear trend free block designs we will also prove a considerably weakened version of this conjecture which will determine all combinations of designs parmetres for which the class of linear trend free block designs is non empty.     

Does product complexity matter for competition in experimental retail markets?

We describe a first experiment on whether product complexity affects competition and consumers in retail markets. We are unable to detect a significant effect of product complexity on prices, except insofar as the demand elasticity for complex products is higher. However, there is qualified evidence that complex products have the potential to induce consumers to buy more than they would otherwise. In this sense, consumer exploitability in quantities cannot be ruled out. We also find evidence for shaping effects: consumers’ preferences are shaped by past experience with prices, and firms may in principle exploit this to sell more.     

Comment on “Constrained Optimization Approaches to Estimation of Structural Models”

We revisit the comparison of mathematical programming with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) and nested fixed point (NFXP) algorithms for estimating structural dynamic models by Su and Judd (2012). Their implementation of the nested fixed point algorithm used successive approximations to solve the inner fixed point problem (NFXP‐SA). We redo their comparison using the more efficient version of NFXP proposed by Rust (1987), which combines successive approximations and Newton–Kantorovich iterations to solve the fixed point problem (NFXP‐NK). We show that MPEC and NFXP are similar in speed and numerical performance when the more efficient NFXP‐NK variant is used.     

Impatience versus Incentives

This paper studies the dynamics of long‐term contracts in repeated principal–agent relationships with an impatient agent. Despite the absence of exogenous uncertainty, Pareto‐optimal dynamic contracts generically oscillate between favoring the principal and favoring the agent.     

Managing Quality in a Heterogeneous Contract Manufacturing Environment

The outsourcing of production is a prominent strategy across industries. While the strategy can have many benefits, the popular press reports numerous examples of quality issues originating with contract manufacturers (CMs). Observing these quality issues, multiple scholars call for the quality management (QM) literature to be extended to explicitly address the challenges of managing quality in an inter‐organizational context. Additionally, QM researchers recognize the need to consider contextual contingencies for the effectiveness of specific QM practices. Responding to these calls, we focus on the potential contingent factor of CM heterogeneity (i.e. the degree of product and process diversity at the CM plant). We first test the direct relationship between CM manufacturing heterogeneity and CM quality conformance performance, as reported by the CM's customers, brand‐owning firms. Next, we evaluate the effectiveness of multiple practices that these brand‐owning firms can employ to mitigate the anticipated negative effect of heterogeneity on their CM's conformance quality. We utilize paired dyadic data on 106 contract manufacturing relationships in the food, drug, and medical device industries to test our hypothesized model. The results of our analysis reveal a negative association between heterogeneity at CM facilities and their conformance quality performance. Our results also identify cooperative relationships, contractual coordination provisions, and formal performance assessment programs as practices that brand‐owning firms can employ to largely eliminate the negative impact of heterogeneity on CMs’ conformance quality performance.     

Coherence principles in interval‐based dose finding

This paper studies the notion of coherence in interval‐based dose‐finding methods. An incoherent decision is either (a) a recommendation to escalate the dose following an observed dose‐limiting toxicity or (b) a recommendation to deescalate the dose following a non–dose‐limiting toxicity. In a simulated example, we illustrate that the Bayesian optimal interval method and the Keyboard method are not coherent. We generated dose‐limiting toxicity outcomes under an assumed set of true probabilities for a trial of n=36 patients in cohorts of size 1, and we counted the number of incoherent dosing decisions that were made throughout this simulated trial. Each of the methods studied resulted in 13/36 (36%) incoherent decisions in the simulated trial. Additionally, for two different target dose‐limiting toxicity rates, 20% and 30%, and a sample size of n=30 patients, we randomly generated 100 dose‐toxicity curves and tabulated the number of incoherent decisions made by each method in 1000 simulated trials under each curve. For each method studied, the probability of incurring at least one incoherent decision during the conduct of a single trial is greater than 75%. Coherency is an important principle in the conduct of dose‐finding trials. Interval‐based methods violate this principle for cohorts of size 1 and require additional modifications to overcome this shortcoming. Researchers need to take a closer look at the dose assignment behavior of interval‐based methods when using them to plan dose‐finding studies.     

Factor screening in nonregular two-level designs based on projection-based variable selection

In this paper, we focus on the problem of factor screening in nonregular two-level designs through gradually reducing the number of possible sets of active factors. We are particularly concerned with situations when three or four factors are active. Our proposed method works through examining fits of projection models, where variable selection techniques are used to reduce the number of terms. To examine the reliability of the methods in combination with such techniques, a panel of models consisting of three or four active factors with data generated from the 12-run and the 20-run Plackett–Burman (PB) design is used. The dependence of the procedure on the amount of noise, the number of active factors and the number of experimental factors is also investigated. For designs with few runs such as the 12-run PB design, variable selection should be done with care and default procedures in computer software may not be reliable to which we suggest improvements. A real example is included to show how we propose factor screening can be done in practice.