Making sense of census data: A components analysis of employment change among indigenous Australians

The 1996 Census count of indigenous Australians included a substantial number of individuals who were not recorded as indigenous by the previous census. This paper considers the implications of this for interpreting change in employment numbers. Two adjustments are made to employment change data. First, reverse survival of the 1996 population is applied to reconstruct 1991 employment figures. Second, administrative data are used to discount employment generated by participation in labour market programs. The effect is to substantially deflate the strong intercensal employment growth apparent from census counts with the conclusion that the rate of indigenous employment in the mainstream labour market has fallen.     

Effects of Group Practice of the Transcendental Meditation Program on Preventing Violent Crime in Washington,D.C.: Results of the National Demonstration Project,June--July 1993

This paper reports the results of a prospective experiment in which a group of approximately 4,000 participants in the Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi programs of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi assembled in Washington, D.C., from June 7 to July 30, 1993. It was hypothesized that levels of violent crime in the District of Columbia would fall substantially during the Demonstration Project, as a result of the group's effect of increasing coherence and reducing stress in the collective consciousness of the District. A 27-member Project Review Board comprising independent scientists and leading citizens approved the research protocol and monitored the research process. Weekly crime data was derived from database records provided by the District of Columbia Metropolitan Police Department (DCMPD), which are used in the FBI Uniform Crime Reports. Statistical analysis considered the effect of weather variables, daylight, historical crime trends and annual patterns in the District of Columbia, as well as trends in neighboring cities. Consistent with previous research, levels of homicides, rapes and assaults (HRA crimes) correlated with average weekly temperature. Robberies approximately followed an annually recurring cycle. Time series analysis of 1993 data, controlling for temperature, showed that HRA crimes dropped significantly during the Demonstration Project, corresponding with increases in the size of the group; the maximum decrease was 23.3% (p < 2 × 10–9) [24.6% using a longer baseline, with 1988--1993 data (p < 3 × 10–5)], coincident with the peak number of participants in the group during the final week of the assembly. When the same period in each of the five previous years was examined, no significant decreases in HRA crimes were found. Robberies did not decrease significantly. However, a model that jointly estimated the effect of the Demonstration Project on both HRA crimes and robberies showed a significant reduction in violent crimes overall of 15.6% (p = 0.0008). Further analysis showed that the effect of the coherence-creating group on reducing HRA crimes could not be accounted for by additional police staffing. The time series analysis for HRA crimes gave results that are highly robust to alternative model specifications, and showed that the effect of the group size was cumulative and persisted after the Demonstration Project ended. Also, calculation of the steady state gain based on the time series model predicted that a permanent group of 4,000 coherence-creating experts in the District would have a long-term effect of reducing HRA crimes by 48%.     

ON ESTIMATING PARAMETERS FOR BETA DISTRIBUTIONS

The purpose of this paper is to comment on and give historical perspective to two methdologies for estimating parameters of beta distributions. Fielitz and Myers [3] [4] developed and advocated a methodology using the method of moments, while Romesburg [20] advocated a methodology usingthe method of maximum likelihood. However, what Fielitz and Myers presented as new research and suggested as an area needing further study is ground already trampled. The authors have prepared a graph to underline the superiority of the maximum likelihood method in fitting beta distributions.     

Adolescent girls’ race/ethnic status, identities, and drive for thinness

Using data from 7272 adolescent US girls, we explore how girls’ race/ethnic group status affects their bodyweight, perceptions of overweight, and weight control practices. We hypothesize that a girl’s race/ethnic status influences her basic identity which in turn prompts her to adopt or reject a “drive for thinness.” After controlling for family and peer support, school engagement, family SES, maturation, and family structure, we find that girls’ race/ethnic status influences their susceptibility to the thinness ideals of mainstream culture. African American girls weigh more than Asian, Hispanic, or White girls, but at any given weight they perceive themselves as overweight and attempt to control their weight less. Asian American and White girls invest most in thinness dynamics. Some evidence also suggests girls from lower SES families are less driven to be thin. Our results affirm the utility of viewing material bodies as “situations” that are experienced and interpreted in accord with identity group relations and dynamics.     

Does product complexity matter for competition in experimental retail markets?

We describe a first experiment on whether product complexity affects competition and consumers in retail markets. We are unable to detect a significant effect of product complexity on prices, except insofar as the demand elasticity for complex products is higher. However, there is qualified evidence that complex products have the potential to induce consumers to buy more than they would otherwise. In this sense, consumer exploitability in quantities cannot be ruled out. We also find evidence for shaping effects: consumers’ preferences are shaped by past experience with prices, and firms may in principle exploit this to sell more.     

Transforming sub-Saharan Africa

This article provides an analysis of my personal experience and research on the need for sub-Saharan African economic transformation. It contains relevant references to econometric modeling which are consistent with this analysis. After presenting the causes of African failures, ranging from the alleged role of slavery and colonization, to trade composition and relative decline, to present day problems of governance, low level of foreign investment in Africa, and mass unemployment, the article concludes with an agenda for the transformation of sub-Saharan Africa.     

Perceptions of Randomized Security Schedules

Security of infrastructure is a major concern. Traditional security schedules are unable to provide omnipresent coverage; consequently, adversaries can exploit predictable vulnerabilities to their advantage. Randomized security schedules, which randomly deploy security measures, overcome these limitations, but public perceptions of such schedules have not been examined. In this experiment, participants were asked to make a choice between attending a venue that employed a traditional (i.e., search everyone) or a random (i.e., a probability of being searched) security schedule. The absolute probability of detecting contraband was manipulated (i.e., 1/10, 1/4, 1/2) but equivalent between the two schedule types. In general, participants were indifferent to either security schedule, regardless of the probability of detection. The randomized schedule was deemed more convenient, but the traditional schedule was considered fairer and safer. There were no differences between traditional and random schedule in terms of perceived effectiveness or deterrence. Policy implications for the implementation and utilization of randomized schedules are discussed.     

Enacting reflective and deliberative practices in action research

ABSTRACT

We consider action research as a form of deliberative policy analysis. This analysis explores a “reconstruction clinic” in which stakeholders and public officials engaged memories, hopes and obligations as they sought to resolve controversies over details of policy implementation. We ask how institutional design shaped participants’ reflective and deliberative progress. Reflection in action can prompt not only changes in cognitive frames, but new behavioural capacities for action. Deliberative practices can shape new relationships between parties through the work of apology, recognition, appreciation, and emergent collaboration.     

An Ecological Model for Quantitative Risk Assessment for Schistosomiasis: The Case of a Patchy Environment in the Coastal Tropical Area of Northeastern Brazil

We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail Biomphalaria glabrata is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case‐specific features: stage‐structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site‐specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real‐world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.     

Chronic Child Abuse: The Characteristics and Careers of Children Caught in the Child Protection System

The introduction of the Quality Protects initiative in Englandand the focus on performance management has challenged socialservices departments to examine the systems, processes and outcomesfor children who have their name on a child protection register.Research indicates that approximately one-quarter of the situationsin which children are registered could be described as chronic—thatis, they remain on the child protection register for significantperiods of time, experience more than one period of registrationor suffer a further incident of significant harm whilst subjectto a child protection plan. In this article, the findings froma research study conducted into this group of vulnerable childrenare reported, focusing on the characteristics of the childrenand their families, and their careers in the child protectionsystem. The paper concludes with observations about the weakconceptualization of performance management and the need torecognize the complexity of the factors that influence children’scareers in the child protection system.