Approximate Likelihoods for Generalized Linear Errors-in-variables Models

When measurement error is present in covariates, it is well known that naïvely fitting a generalized linear model results in inconsistent inferences. Several methods have been proposed to adjust for measurement error without making undue distributional assumptions about the unobserved true covariates. Stefanski and Carroll focused on an unbiased estimating function rather than a likelihood approach. Their estimating function, known as the conditional score, exists for logistic regression models but has two problems: a poorly behaved Wald test and multiple solutions. They suggested a heuristic procedure to identify the best solution that works well in practice but has little theoretical support compared with maximum likelihood estimation. To help to resolve these problems, we propose a conditional quasi-likelihood to accompany the conditional score that provides an alternative to Wald's test and successfully identifies the consistent solution in large samples.     

应急预案需要多少成本？

美国前总统肯尼迪曾说，“中国人用两支笔书写危机这个词，分别代表危险和机遇。在关键时刻，要意识到危险且把握好机遇。”     

Advancing the Chicago School of Pragmatic Sociology: The Life and Work of Tamotsu Shibutani*

Tamotsu Shibutani is a contemporary proponent of the Chicago School of pragmatic sociology who has devoted his academic efforts to using the Chicago School of pragmatism to analyze problems of contemporary social life and to refine the theoretical tools available to the discipline of sociology. He has evaluated such topics as the Japanese relocation centers, the social construction of rumor, demoralization in Army life, the dynamics of ethnic stratification, and the resolution of ethnic tensions. Shibutani's books on social psychology and general sociology synthesize micro and macro variables, with careful attention to both agency and social control. His work is free of metaphysical puzzles and is true to the scientific method, clearly reflecting the essence of the Chicago School of pragmatic sociology.     

Toward an index of gender equality

This paper develops a Gender Equality Index (GEI) that is modelled in its thinking and implementation on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The GEI was computed using annual Ontario data on seven socioeconomic indicators for the years 1975 to 1984. The analysis supports the following conclusions: (1) that it is possible to indentify a subset of indicators that have face validity as measures of relative gender equality; (2) that factor analysis is a useful means for evaluating the construct validity of gender equality; (3) that the resulting GEI reveals a strong upward trend toward gender equality in the latter half of the 1970's and the early 1980's and (4) that this trend has flattened in 1984.     

Disciplining qualitative decision exercises: Aspects of a transempirical protocol

This paper defines and defends certain procedural and instrumental initiatives taken to constitute a transempirical protocol. This protocol is intended to provide one avenue for extending the bounds of rationality to decision exercises where there are only limited opportunities for effecting objective or empirical discipline. That is, the practical purpose of the protocol's facilities is to help prevent decision exercises that must be conducted in the face of a signal sparsity of objective/empirical predicates from degenerating into an uncontrolled retreat from reason.The paper is divided into two essentially self-contained parts. Part I will try to establish the rationale for the transempirical protocol in light of the reach and limits of other decision-theoretic platforms, and briefly introduce the set of provisions it entails. Part II will then go through a technical elaboration of these provisions, suggesting how they might be brought towards operational significance.     

USA immigration policy, source-country social programs, and the skill composition of legal USA immigration

In this paper, highly skilled and less-skilled immigrants in three age classes (20–34, 35–49, and 50–64) are distinguished. Since most highly skilled immigrants are males who enter the USA as numerically restricted, we study only numerically restricted male immigrants. Annual data (1972–1991) for 86 source countries are pooled, and the Hausman–Taylor instrumental variable technique is used to estimate the regressions. Along with measures of differential economic opportunities, migration costs, and USA institutional controls, we incorporate a unique set of variables relating to social programs in source countries. Such programs prove to be significant determinants of the skill composition of USA immigrants.     

Conflicting evidence and decisions by agency professionals: an experimental test in the context of merger regulation

Many important regulatory decisions are taken by professionals employing limited and conflicting evidence. We conduct an experiment in a merger regulation setting, identifying the role of different standards of proof, volumes of evidence, cost of error and professional or lay decision making. The experiment was conducted on current practitioners from 11 different jurisdictions, in addition to student subjects. Legal standards of proof significantly affect decisions. There are specific differences because of professional judgment, including in how error costs and volume of evidence are taken into account. We narrow the range of explanations for why professional decision making matters.