Dynamic awareness and zero probability beliefs

We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social comparison effects are less robust. We do not find any evidence for peer effects (through social-loss aversion or imitation) on insurance take-up. In contrast, we find support for the prediction that people underweight others’ relevant information in their own decision making.     

Variations in the Life Histories of Incarcerated Parents by Race and Ethnicity: Implications for Service Provision

ABSTRACT

Incarcerated parents have complex life histories that often remain unresolved during incarceration, can continue to create barriers to prosocial success on release, and present similar intergenerational challenges for their children. This study examines the life histories of incarcerated fathers and mothers from the Pacific Northwest and how their experiences vary based on race and ethnicity. Five areas examined were exposure to trauma, child welfare involvement, mental health and substance abuse problems, juvenile justice and adult criminal justice involvement, and intergenerational criminal justice involvement. The sample comprised 359 incarcerated parents, and their racial/ethnic composition was 59% White, 14% African American, 11% multiracial, 8% Native American, and 7% Latino. Few differences were found across racial and ethnic groups. Mothers appeared more similar to each other across groups than fathers. Results illustrated similarities yet some surprising differences with national trends on key study variables. Implications for future research and intervention and prevention are discussed.     

Increasing Competency,Self-Confidence,and Connectedness Among Foster Care Alumni Entering a 4-Year University: Findings from an Early-Start Program

Research shows that few foster care alumni enroll and complete post-secondary education. For those who do enroll, many experience challenges associated with academic and social adjustment and are at risk of dropping out. Many college-based programs are being developed and are available to foster care alumni to support them during their post-secondary education. This study used pre-tests, post-tests, and journal entries of seventeen participants to evaluate a strengths-based, resilience-oriented early-start program for newly enrolled students at a large public university that provides knowledge about the institution, resources (e.g., tutoring), and social support necessary for foster care alumni to make a smooth transition into college life and to increase short and long-term student success. Quantitative and qualitative findings indicate that students who participated in the early-start program showed increased confidence and competency in academic and social adjustment. Findings also showed personal growth (e.g., building resiliency) and an increased connectedness among students who participated in the program. Study findings can inform the development of new on-campus support programs and help enhance existing programming. Future research should address short and long-term outcomes and experiences of students who are former foster youth who have participated in on-campus support programs.     

Teacher,Researcher and … Policy Actor? Social Work Academics’ Involvement in Social Policy

This cross‐sectional quantitative study expands the knowledge on the level of involvement of social work academics (SWAs) in social policy formulation processes, and the factors associated with this. SWAs are an interesting case for exploring the academia–policy nexus because they are affiliated with a profession in which the discourse regards social policy as a target of intervention. The study took place in Israel, where social work is strongly embedded in academia and enjoys relatively high professional status. The study drew upon a sample, which consisted of 57 per cent of all SWAs in Israel, and employed questionnaires developed specifically for the study. The findings show that the highest levels of involvement were in activities characterized by more active, public sphere routes of influence within the policy arena that were undertaken in conjunction with traditional social work partners. Social work scholars engaged in these activities more during the initial stages of the policy process. These forms of policy involvement reflect the dual impact of academia and the social work profession upon SWAs. Associated with level of involvement were individual factors, which included academic rank, perception of the social role of academia, perceived individual policy role, and perceived policy competencies. By contrast, factors linked to institutional support for policy engagement were not found to be associated with policy involvement.     

Involvement in the Juvenile Justice System for African American Adolescents: Examining Associations with Behavioral Health Problems

While researchers have found that African American youth experience higher levels of juvenile justice involvement at every system level (arrest, sentencing, and incarceration) relative to their other ethnic counterparts, few studies have explored how juvenile justice involvement and number of contacts might be correlated with this broad range of problems. A convenience sample of 638 African American adolescents living in predominantly low-income, urban communities participated in a survey related to juvenile justice involvement. Major findings using logistic regression models indicated that adolescents who reported juvenile justice system involvement versus no involvement were 2.3 times as likely to report mental health problems, substance abuse, and delinquent or youth offending behaviors. Additional findings documented that the higher the number of juvenile justice system contacts, the higher the rates of delinquent behaviors, alcohol and marijuana use, sex while high on drugs, and commercial sex. These findings suggest that identifying and targeting youth who have multiple juvenile justice system contacts, especially those in low-resourced communities for early intervention services, may be beneficial. Future research should examine whether peer network norms might mediate the relationships between juvenile justice involvement and youth problem behaviors.     

On estimating the distribution of data envelopment analysis efficiency scores: an application to nursing homes’ care planning process

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a deterministic econometric model for calculating efficiency by using data from an observed set of decision-making units (DMUs). We propose a method for calculating the distribution of efficiency scores. Our framework relies on estimating data from an unobserved set of DMUs. The model provides posterior predictive data for the unobserved DMUs to augment the frontier in the DEA that provides a posterior predictive distribution for the efficiency scores. We explore the method on a multiple-input and multiple-output DEA model. The data for the example are from a comprehensive examination of how nursing homes complete a standardized mandatory assessment of residents.     

Analysis of robust design experiments with time-dependent ordinal response characteristics: a quality improvement study from the horticulture industry

An approach to the analysis of time-dependent ordinal quality score data from robust design experiments is developed and applied to an experiment from commercial horticultural research, using concepts of product robustness and longevity that are familiar to analysts in engineering research. A two-stage analysis is used to develop models describing the effects of a number of experimental treatments on the rate of post-sales product quality decline. The first stage uses a polynomial function on a transformed scale to approximate the quality decline for an individual experimental unit using derived coefficients and the second stage uses a joint mean and dispersion model to investigate the effects of the experimental treatments on these derived coefficients. The approach, developed specifically for an application in horticulture, is exemplified with data from a trial testing ornamental plants that are subjected to a range of treatments during production and home-life. The results of the analysis show how a number of control and noise factors affect the rate of post-production quality decline. Although the model is used to analyse quality data from a trial on ornamental plants, the approach developed is expected to be more generally applicable to a wide range of other complex production systems.     

Using relative utility curves to evaluate risk prediction

Summary.  Because many medical decisions are based on risk prediction models that are constructed from medical history and results of tests, the evaluation of these prediction models is important. This paper makes five contributions to this evaluation: the relative utility curve which gauges the potential for better prediction in terms of utilities, without the need for a reference level for one utility, while providing a sensitivity analysis for misspecification of utilities, the relevant region, which is the set of values of prediction performance that are consistent with the recommended treatment status in the absence of prediction, the test threshold, which is the minimum number of tests that would be traded for a true positive prediction in order for the expected utility to be non-negative, the evaluation of two-stage predictions that reduce test costs and connections between various measures of performance of prediction. An application involving the risk of cardiovascular disease is discussed.     

Measuring people's trust

Summary. We measure trust and trustworthiness in British society with a newly designed experiment using real monetary rewards and a sample of the British population. The study also asks the typical survey question that aims to measure trust, showing that it does not predict 'trust' as measured in the experiment. Overall, about 40% of people were willing to trust a stranger in our experiment, and their trust was rewarded half of the time. Analysis of variation in the trust behaviour in our survey suggests that trusting is more likely if people are older, their financial situation is either 'comfortable' or 'difficult' compared with 'doing alright' or 'just getting by', they are a homeowner or they are divorced, separated or never married compared with those who are married or cohabiting. Trustworthiness also is more likely among subjects who are divorced or separated relative to those who are married or cohabiting, and less likely among subjects who perceive their financial situation as 'just getting by' or 'difficult'. We also analyse the effect of attitudes towards risks on trust.     

Use of log−log survival function in modeling time-covariate interactions in Cox regression

Plotting of log−log survival functions against time for different categories or combinations of categories of covariates is perhaps the easiest and most commonly used graphical tool for checking proportional hazards (PH) assumption. One problem in the utilization of the technique is that the covariates need to be categorical or made categorical through appropriate grouping of the continuous covariates. Subjectivity in the decision making on the basis of eye-judgment of the plots and frequent inconclusiveness arising in situations where the number of categories and/or covariates gets larger are among other limitations of this technique. This paper proposes a non-graphical (numerical) test of the PH assumption that makes use of log−log survival function. The test enables checking proportionality for categorical as well as continuous covariates and overcomes the other limitations of the graphical method. Observed power and size of the test are compared to some other tests of its kind through simulation experiments. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed test is more powerful than some of the most sensitive tests in the literature in a wide range of survival situations. An example of the test is given using the widely used gastric cancer data.