Religion and fertility in the United States: The importance of marriage patterns and hispanic origin

The marital fertility of white Catholic wives in the United States was higher than that of non-Catholic wives in 1977–1981, but when Hispanics were excluded, the differential disappeared; therefore, the Catholic-non-Catholic differential in recent years was due entirely to the higher fertility of Hispanic Catholics. The Total Fertility Rates (TFR) of Catholics were slightly lower in 1977–1981 than those for white Protestants, primarily because Catholic women tend to marry later than Protestant women. This finding was confirmed by multivariate analysis of data on children ever born. We examine some additional data and various theories to speculate on whether these patterns will last.     

A likelihood ratio test for equality of deviations from randomness

The use of the sample variance-to-mean ratio as a measure of deviation from randomness in spatial pattern is reviewed. The likelihood ratio method of constructing a statistical test for the equality of several population variance-to-mean ratios is described, and details are provided for the special case where counts are modelled as arising from a negative binomial distribution. This test is illustrated by application to example data sets in ecology. Likelihood ratio tests represent a general methodology whereby relationships among several indices of aggregation can be systematically investigated, provided one is able to specify a suitable parametric form for the underlying distributions.     

On the Modernity of Traditional Contraception: Time and the Social Context of Fertility

Many studies of fertility implicitly equate temporal management, biomedical contraception, and “modernity” on the one hand, and “tradition,” the lack of intentional timing, and uncontrolled fertility on the other. This article questions that equation, focusing on the widespread use of periodic abstinence in southern Cameroon. Drawing on field data and the Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey, the article investigates how local concepts of timing shape both contraceptive choice and the evaluation of methods as “modern” or “traditional.” Cameroonian women prefer periodic abstinence because they perceive it as “modern,” a modernity tied both to the social context in which it is taught and to its unique temporal form. By contrast, Depo‐Provera, pills, and the IUD are seen as less‐than‐modern, because they are less exigent of temporal control. The reliance on a behavioral, rather than technological, contraceptive method parallels the experience of the European fertility transition. Cameroonian women draw on a complex social repertoire in making contraceptive choices; methods are preferred or rejected not only on the basis of their efficacy in averting pregnancy, but also because of their correspondence to models of legitimate social action. Reproductive practices may have social motivations that are unrelated to fertility per se.     

Process evaluation of the midwifery initiated oral health-dental service program: Perceptions of midwives in Greater Western Sydney,Australia

Background

Despite links between poor maternal oral health, adverse pregnancy outcomes and early childhood decay there is limited emphasis on maternal oral health in Australia. To address this, the Midwifery Initiated Oral Health Dental Service (MIOH-DS) program was developed in collaboration with the Australian College of Midwives.

Marine protected areas and children’s dietary diversity in the Philippines

Fish living around the coral reefs in the Philippines provide livelihoods for more than a million local fishers and are an important source of protein for coastal communities. However, this rich resource is at risk from myriad threats, which consequently threaten human livelihoods, nutrition, and health. In this paper, we examine the degree to which marine protected areas (MPAs), which aim to conserve marine biodiversity, are associated with improved nutritional outcomes in children under age 5. This analysis, which uses data from the 2008 Philippines Demographic and Health Survey and MPA data from the Coastal Conservation and Education Fund, found a positive association between MPAs and children’s dietary diversity when the MPAs were located closer than 2 km to a child’s community. MPA characteristics such as age or type of management were not consistently associated with dietary diversity. These results suggest a positive association of proximity to MPAs with certain aspects of children’s diet.     

WESTERN SYDNEY AND THE DESIRE FOR HOME

‘Western Sydney’ frequently figures in current debates about urban planning as exemplifying ‘the problem of urban sprawl’. In this context it is represented as the spatial articulation of the irrational desires of a wilful population to live out ‘the great Australian dream’. This paper proposes an alternative reading of the western Sydney suburban landscape to argue for a different understanding of the issues it poses for urban planners. In particular, it is argued that this landscape articulates, and should be valued as, the memories and history of people struggling to make a home for themselves in the, modern world. Attempts by urban planners, it is suggested, to ignore or marginalise this version of ‘the great Australian dream’ will inevitably lead to failure.     

Film,Television and Traditional Folk Culture in Bye Bye Brasil1

Brazilian Cinema Novo [New Cinema] has produced a number of films that have circulated in the United States but perhaps the most familiar to American audiences is Carlos Diegues' Bye Bye Brasil (1980). In his article, Randal Johnson focuses on this film which presents Brazil as a country in a process of rapid transformation, an agro-pastoral economy giving way to rapid industrialization. He notes that “running throughout [the work] is a subtext which constitutes a good-humored yet critical retrospective of the trajectory of Brazilian cinema over the last twenty years and its relationship to other conscious-forming media, notably television.” Johnson examines this subject as well as the complex relationship between cinema, television and popular culture as developed through the device of the Caravana Rolidei, a small-time circus troupe. Each of its characters represents a different aspect of contemporary Brazilian society, and the film as a whole presents the panoply of Brazilian culture, a mixture of elements from diverse sources, both foreign and domestic. Randal Johnson teaches literature and film at the University of Florida. He is the co-author of Brazilian Cinema (1982).     

Inclusive Financial Markets: Is Transformation Under Way in Kenya?

Policy emphasis on financial‐sector development has shifted away from microfinance and towards the development of ‘inclusive financial markets’. But, for inclusion to take place, policy must address barriers to access. This article analyses the socio‐economic, demographic and geographical factors associated with financial‐service use across formal, semi‐formal and informal financial services in Kenya between 2006 and 2009, including the new and rapidly growing mobile‐phone‐based payments service – M‐PESA. It finds that, despite an expansion of services, evidence of access barriers is now clearer than it was in 2006. However, there is some evidence that M‐PESA is reversing age as a barrier to inclusion, but, as yet, it is more of a complement than a substitute for formal services.     

Population,Food and Economic Adjustment

This article investigates the number of games of baseball that should be played (1) in a World Series competition, and (2) in a pennant race competition within each league, in order to have a reasonable level of confidence that the best team wins the competition. The current number of games played is found to be highly inadequate for the World Series and only barely sufficient for the pennant race.     

Gaussian process emulation for second-order Monte Carlo simulations

We consider the use of emulator technology as an alternative method to second-order Monte Carlo (2DMC) in the uncertainty analysis for a percentile from the output of a stochastic model. 2DMC is a technique that uses repeated sampling in order to make inferences on the uncertainty and variability in a model output. The conventional 2DMC approach can often be highly computational, making methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis unfeasible. We explore the adequacy and efficiency of the emulation approach, and we find that emulation provides a viable alternative in this situation. We demonstrate these methods using two different examples of different input dimensions, including an application that considers contamination in pre-pasteurised milk.