Some Bayesian lower bounds on reliability in the lognormal distribution

The two-parameter lognormal distribution with density function f(y: γ, σ²) = [(2πσ²)^1/2y] ¹exp[?(ln y ? γ)²/2σ²], y > 0, is important as a failure-time model in life testing. In this paper, Bayesian lower bounds for the reliability function R(t: γ, σ²) = ?[(γ ? ln t)/σ] are obtained for two cases. First, it is assumed that γ is known and σ² has either an inverted gamma or “general uniform” prior distribution. Then, for the case that both γ and σ² are unknown, the normal-gamma prior and Jeffreys' vague prior are considered. Some Monte Carlo simulations are given to indicate some of the properties of the Bayesian lower bounds.     

Eliciting and Classifying Concerns: A Methodological Critique

Two methodological steps in the study of peoples'concerns are elicitation and classification. Elicitation of concerns through analytical methods such as surveys can be supplemented with techniques that perform more diversively. We present two examples of how this can be accomplished: one in the expert community and one in the lay community. A classification taxonomy is a subjective choice of the researcher and it can only be evaluated against the stated objectives of the research. We present a classification schema that is explicitly oriented toward diagnosing the substantive needs of public discourses about risk decision making. To illustrate how concerns can be elicited in a social setting and how this classification tool can be applied, we report on a public participation exercise in New Jersey where citizens discussed the impacts of land application of sewage sludge at an experimental farm.     

Regression with random coefficients

The first half of the seventies has seen a virtual explosion of interest in the use of random coefficient regression techniques which, for the most part, have been developed or refined by econometricians. However, given the importance of regression analysis as a managerial tool, it is surprising to find scant mention of random coefficient methods in the management science literature. With this in mind, this paper reviews briefly the various random coefficient models that have been developed and provides a reasonably complete bibliography for further reference.     

Fathers in child welfare: caseworkers' perspectives

Five focus groups substantially agreed about the lack of paternal participation in child welfare services and the reasons for low paternal involvement. The groups had considerable disagreement about whether child welfare professionals should address this issue. Some caseworkers believed that all fathers and mothers should be treated identically with respect to services to be offered and time frames for services; other caseworkers thought that the special circumstances of some fathers, such as lack of child care experience, called for service approaches that differ from those for mothers. Another disagreement was whether more fathers would be more involved if services were gender sensitive, that is, if agencies provided male caseworkers for fathers and had father-only services. Much of the debate focused on pragmatic considerations (would gender-sensitive services improve paternal participation and outcomes?), although some participants were concerned about equity (would such services give fathers an advantage in disputed custody cases?).     

A changed America? The effects of September 11th on depressive symptoms and alcohol consumption

In the weeks following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, social commentators argued that America had profoundly "changed." In light of these arguments and the literature on disasters, we examine the immediate and longer-term mental health consequences of September 11th using a national sample of full-time American workers. We model the effects of temporal proximity to the attacks on depressive symptoms and alcohol consumption, while controlling for demographic characteristics. Our data revealed a significant increase in the number of depressive symptoms reported during the 4 weeks after the attacks. In the subsequent weeks, levels of depressive symptoms returned to pre-September 11th levels. Contrary to expectations, there was some indication of decreased alcohol consumption after September 11th, although these effects were modest. These analyses provide little support for popular assertions that September 11th resulted in lasting and measurable impacts on Americans' well-being.     

Feasibility and efficacy of a binge drinking prevention intervention for college students delivered via the Internet versus postal mail

In this study, the authors evaluated the feasibility and efficacy of a binge drinking prevention intervention for college students delivered via the Internet versus a parallel print-based intervention delivered via postal mail. A total of 116 college students completed the baseline survey. The authors then randomized the students into the Web or print group and sent them intervention materials. One hundred and six students completed the posttest survey. The intervention consisted of a series of 4 weekly "newsletters" in electronic or print format. The authors collected data using a standardized online 42-item survey. They found that an Internet-based binge drinking prevention intervention for college students was feasible. Results supported the efficacy of this intervention for those students already binge drinking, regardless of delivery mode. The authors found no significant differences on outcome measures when delivered via the Internet or postal mail. Results lend support to the use of the Internet as a viable alternative to more traditional health intervention delivery methods.     

Union use of employee pension funds: Introduction and overview

Summary and Conclusions A case can be made that labor unions are seeking to gain control of the financial leverage of employee pension funds as a means of offsetting a secular decline in membership which has occurred over the past twenty years and which has been accelerating. Pension fund assets are now substantial and are growing very rapidly so that even partial or indirect influence over investment policies could have major impacts on the economy. Unions have already achieved success on a limited scale with the pension fund weapon. Their intention to achieve widespread influence through this vehicle is signalled by the establishment in January, 1981, of a monthly newsletter,Labor & Investments which is devoted exclusively to the union use of employee pension funds. In sum, it is clear that the union use of employee pension funds is a very timely and significant topic. The papers that follow may not provide definitive answers to the many questions produced by this new initiative, but they do enhance our understanding of the issues involved.