An empirical study of the impact of complexity on participation in horserace betting

The aim of the research reported in this paper was to explore empirically whether levels of participation in horserace betting are affected by the complexity of the betting task. The study employed a systematic random sample of 1161 betting decisions made in UK offcourse betting offices during 1987. The research was conducted in a naturalistic setting where it was possible to grade complexity and to measure levels of participation. Complexity was defined in terms of both the number of alternatives in the decision-maker's choice set (number of horses in a race) and the complexity of the attributes set for each horserace (handicap vs. non-handicap races). Results indicated that bettors are not inhibited by alternative-based complexity, but may be inhibited to some extent by attribute-defined complexity.     

Therapist effects on dropout in couple therapy

Marriage and family therapy scholars have argued that therapists play a crucial role in successful couple therapy, yet little research has empirically documented that the therapist in couple therapy has a significant impact on outcomes. Known as the study of therapist effects, this study sought to assess the amount of variance attributed to the therapist in couple therapy outcomes. Using dropout as the outcome variable, this study analyzed data from 1,192 couples treated by 90 masters and doctoral student therapists at a university‐based training clinic. Results from multilevel analysis indicated that therapists in the sample accounted for 9.4% of the variance in couple dropout while controlling for initial couple impairment. Therapist gender and therapist experience did not significantly predict variability in therapist effects. These findings give promise to future research on therapist effects in couple therapy and encourage exploration into which therapist characteristics and behaviors contribute to successful clinical outcome.     

English‐Learning Infants' Representations of Word Forms With Iambic Stress

Retaining detailed representations of unstressed syllables is a logical prerequisite for infants' use of probabilistic phonotactics to segment iambic words from fluent speech. The head‐turn preference study was used to investigate the nature of English‐learners' representations of iambic word onsets. Fifty‐four 10.5‐month‐olds were familiarized to passages containing the nonsense iambic word forms ginome and tupong. Following familiarization, infants were either tested on familiar (ginome and tupong) or near‐familiar (pinome and bupong) versus unfamiliar (kidar and mafoos) words. Infants in the familiar test group (familiar vs. unfamiliar) oriented significantly longer to familiar than unfamiliar test items, whereas infants in the near‐familiar test group (near‐familiar vs. unfamiliar) oriented equally long to near‐familiar and unfamiliar test items. Our results provide evidence that infants retain fairly detailed representations of unstressed syllables and therefore support the hypothesis that infants use phonotactic cues to find words in fluent speech.     

Sensitivity Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is fraught with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 billion dollars to 3 billion dollars in losses late on the 12th to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm struck the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor and moved across the densely populated central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates in the 28 dollars to 31 billion dollars range, and final estimates converging at 15 billion dollars as the actual intensity at landfall became apparent. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has a great appreciation for the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM contracts with a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a sophisticated computer model based on the Holland wind field. Sensitivity analyses presented in this article utilize standardized regression coefficients to quantify the contribution of the computer input variables to the magnitude of the wind speed.     

Continuity and Change in Marital Quality Between 1980 and 2000

We use data from two national surveys of married individuals—one from 1980 and the other from 2000—to understand how three dimensions of marital quality changed during this period. Marital happiness and divorce proneness changed little between 1980 and 2000, but marital interaction declined significantly. A decomposition analysis suggested that offsetting trends affected marital quality. Increases in marital heterogamy, premarital cohabitation, wives' extended hours of employment, and wives' job demands were associated with declines in multiple dimensions of marital quality. In contrast, increases in economic resources, decision‐making equality, nontraditional attitudes toward gender, and support for the norm of lifelong marriage were associated with improvements in multiple dimensions of marital quality. Increases in husbands' share of housework appeared to depress marital quality among husbands but to improve marital quality among wives.     

Changing Issue Representation among Major United States Environmental Movement Organizations*

Abstract Histories of the environmental movement have emphasized the importance of a shift in focus from those issues traditionally associated with the movement, such as resource and wildlife protection, towards “new” quality of life issues, such as environmental pollution and its human health effects. Here, time‐series data between 1970 and 2000 on the issue agendas of fifty leading environmental movement organizations (EMOs) are used to empirically assess the veracity of this hypothesized shift. Results indicate that while there is dramatic growth in the salience of new environmental issues, those issues traditionally associated with the environmental movement continue to dominate the collective agendas of major EMOs. Further, new environmental issues are most likely to be represented in organizational fields composed of smaller EMOs on average.     

Locating non‐Western enlightenment texts for a global curriculum

The context of this paper is a university‐based teacher education course in Melbourne, Australia. The assumption underpinning the course is that it is crucial for trainee teachers to examine the lenses they typically use in terms of common‐sense understandings of children and adolescents. We point to the 18th century Western enlightenment period as the source of this thinking. I argue that it is important to be aware of other enlightenments that have shaped the traditions of students in our multicultural mix. In this paper, I explore the writings of the Mahabharata and other early Indian texts to see how they have also influenced ways of thinking about childhood and adolescence. Data for this paper have been drawn from course materials, student responses, translations of early Indian texts and popular stories depicting childhood and adolescence.     

The structure of a micro-bat community in relation to gradients of environmental variation in a tropical urban area

We investigated patterns of community structure (species composition, foraging activity, and nightly foraging patterns) of bats in relation to gradients of environmental variation in a tropical urban area. A total of 32 sites spread equally across eight habitat types were sampled in the city of Townsville, North Queensland, Australia. Each site was sampled on 3 non-consecutive occasions using automated AnaBat systems. Eleven species were confidently identified while a possible four more were identified only to the genus level. Ordination of environmental variables measured at these sites identified two distinct environmental gradients reflecting the degree of urbanisation and foliage density. With increasing urbanisation there was a decline in species richness and total foraging activity. We used regression trees to characterise foraging preferences of each species. This analysis suggested that only one species of Mormopterus was able to exploit the resources provided by urbanisation. This species foraged in areas with higher numbers of white streetlights. The remaining species of bats preferred to forage within close proximity to natural vegetation and with low numbers of streetlights. The density of vegetation in long-established suburbs did not substantially reverse the trend for urban areas to have fewer bat species than original habitats.     

GENDER, RELIGIOSITY, AND REACTIONS TO STRAIN AMONG AFRICAN AMERICANS

Drawing on Broidy and Agnew's (1997 ) extension of general strain theory to explain gender differences in deviance and crime, we tested hypotheses explaining why women are more distressed than men, but less likely to commit deviance in reaction to strain. Applying structural equation modeling to analyze data from a national survey of African Americans, we find that African-American women are more distressed than men, but less likely to engage in interpersonal aggression, because they are better protected by religiosity's distress buffering as well as deviance-reducing effects, and more likely to experience self-directed distress (depression and anxiety) in response to strain, which is less likely to lead to other-directed deviance, like interpersonal aggression, than other-directed distress (anger).