Citizen candidates under uncertainty

In this paper I add uncertainty about the total vote count to a “citizen candidate” model of representative democracy. I show that in a society with a large electorate, where the outcome of the election is uncertain and where winning candidates receive a large reward from holding office, there will be a two-candidate equilibrium and no equilibria with a single candidate. This work has benefited from valuable comments by Paul Healy, Morgan Kousser, Alejandro Saporiti, Al Slivinski, participants in a seminar in Princeton, and especially by Matt Jackson and Tom Palfrey. Their contribution is gratefully acknowledged.     

Crime victimization: its extent and communication

Summary. The criminal justice contexts are identified in which understanding and communicating risks are important. The paper is thereafter exclusively concerned with the probability of crime victimization classified by person and location. Examples of crime risks derived from the British Crime Survey are provided, with instances of where concern about crime diverges from risks of crime. Caution is advocated about seeking to reduce the fear of crime by reassurance. The high levels of concentration of crime by location are noted, together with the fact that particular individuals and households are repeatedly victimized, enabling the prioritization of crime-reductive resources after a crime has taken place. The paper concludes that an emphasis on how the supply of criminal opportunities may be regulated heralds a more systematic approach to the distribution of unavoidable hazard among citizens.     

Relations between physical activity and behavioral and perceptual correlates among midwestern college students

OBJECTIVE: Given the inconsistent findings in the literature, the authors' purpose in this study was to examine the associations between physical activity and behavioral and perceptional correlates, such as binge drinking, cigarette smoking, fruit or vegetable consumption, and weight perceptions, among midwestern college students. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: The authors invited a convenience sample of 1,200 undergraduate college students enrolled in the 2004-2005 academic year in 4 different midwestern universities to participate in a survey. Of the 1,163 students who participated in the survey, a total of 1,134 usable surveys were received (response rate of 94.5%). RESULTS: Hierarchical multiple logistic regression analyses indicated that smoking, perceived weight, and consumption of fruit were independent predictors of physical activity when controlling for other variables. CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity promotion requires tailored approaches that are dependent on the target segment of the college student populations.     

Reducing Hospital Readmissions by Integrating Empirical Prediction with Resource Optimization

Hospital readmissions present an increasingly important challenge for health‐care organizations. Readmissions are expensive and often unnecessary, putting patients at risk and costing $15 billion annually in the United States alone. Currently, 17% of Medicare patients are readmitted to a hospital within 30 days of initial discharge with readmissions typically being more expensive than the original visit to the hospital. Recent legislation penalizes organizations with a high readmission rate. The medical literature conjectures that many readmissions can be avoided or mitigated by post‐discharge monitoring. To develop a good monitoring plan it is critical to anticipate the timing of a potential readmission and to effectively monitor the patient for readmission causing conditions based on that knowledge. This research develops new methods to empirically generate an individualized estimate of the time to readmission density function and then uses this density to optimize a post‐discharge monitoring schedule and staffing plan to support monitoring needs. Our approach integrates classical prediction models with machine learning and transfer learning to develop an empirical density that is personalized to each patient. We then transform an intractable monitoring plan optimization with stochastic discharges and health state evolution based on delay‐time models into a weakly coupled network flow model with tractable subproblems after applying a new pruning method that leverages the problem structure. Using this multi‐methodologic approach on two large inpatient datasets, we show that optimal readmission prediction and monitoring plans can identify and mitigate 40–70% of readmissions before they generate an emergency readmission.     

The production of pictures: An institutional approach

The production of visual images is approached as a socially instituted process with four dimensions: material and social infrastructures, and thematic and stylistic norms and codes. Each dimension is illustrated with references to an array of visual materials.     

The Economic and Social Impacts of the CDEP Scheme in Remote Australia

The Community Development Employment Projects (CDEP) scheme is an unusual labour market and social development program for Indigenous people. Currently the CDEP scheme employs around 36,000 Indigenous Australians and accounts for over one‐quarter of total Indigenous employment. Despite the significance of the CDEP scheme, in recent times, relatively little attention has been given to the potential for the scheme to be used as an instrument for economic and social development in remote areas of Australia. This article present new evidence on the impact of the CDEP scheme on economic and social outcomes for Indigenous people in remote areas of Australia. It is concluded that the scheme has been successful in generating positive economic and community development outcomes at minimal cost to the Australian taxpayer.     

Evaluating the Oversight of Scientific Misconduct

The office of Research Integrity has proposed a new definition of scientific misconduct that will substantively reduce the federal government's role of oversight of scientific practices. The standard is being changed despite the lack of evidence about the effects of current policies or understanding of why research misconduct occurs, how it can be detected and prevented, and the nature and effectiveness of sanctions. Given this lack of knowledge and the perception that the integrity of science is falling, we believe it would be unwise for the academic and scientific community to adopt this new standard.