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21.
Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced
times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the
probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of
destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory
has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces
a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when
the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian
framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends
at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data,
complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems. 相似文献
22.
Christian P. Robert Xiao-Li Meng Jesper Møller Jeffrey S Rosenthal C Jennison M. A Hurn F Al-Awadhi Peter McCullagh Christophe Andrieu Arnaud Doucet Petros Dellaportas Ioulia Papageorgiou Ricardo S Ehlers Elena A Erosheva Stephen E Fienberg Jonathan J Forster Roger C Gill Nial Friel Peter Green David Hastie R King Hans R Künsch N. A. Lazar C Osinski 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(1):39-55
23.
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25.
Jonathan Bradshaw 《Children & Society》2003,17(3):162-172
This article explores trends in child poverty in the UK since 1979 and examines the extent to which the government is making progress in pursuit of its objective to abolish child poverty in 20 years. The spatial distribution of child poverty is examined by country, local authority and ward. The characteristics of households containing poor children are presented and research on the dynamics of child poverty reviewed. Child poverty in the UK trebled during the 1980s and has only just begun to fall slowly. Child poverty is heavily spatially concentrated and the risks of child poverty are concentrated in certain types of household. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
26.
Gayane Novikova 《Transition Studies Review》2004,11(3):213-223
The collapse of the USSR was accompanied by transformation of the South Caucasian latent ethnopolitical conflicts into local wars. Today the situation in the area of the conflicts is “neither war, nor peace”. Three unresolved conflicts of the South Caucasus can be considered as one of the most serious obstacles for establishing a regional security system.The article gives the general characteristics of these conflicts, the trends of their development, taking into account the time factor, and analyzes the behavioral models of the main players – de jure recognized and unrecognized de facto states of the South Caucasus. The basic objective of the main players should be to keep the situation on a level preventing the resumption of the armed conflicts. The attempts of forced resolution of the conflicts are fraught with destabilization of the situation not only in the area of any of these conflicts but in the whole region. 相似文献
27.
Lu Lin 《Statistical Papers》2004,45(4):529-544
The quasi-score function, as defined by Wedderburn (1974) and McCullagh (1983) and so on, is a linear function of observations.
The generalized quasi-score function introduced in this paper is a linear function of some unbiased basis functions, where
the unbiased basis functions may be some linear functions of the observations or not, and can be easily constructed by the
meaning of the parameters such as mean and median and so on. The generalized quasi-likelihood estimate obtained by such a
generalized quasi-score function is consistent and has an asymptotically normal distribution. As a result, the optimum generalized
quasi-score is obtained and a method to construct the optimum unbiased basis function is introduced. In order to construct
the potential function, a conservative generalized estimating function is defined. By conservative, a potential function for
the projected score has many properties of a log-likelihood function. Finally, some examples are given to illustrate the theoretical
results.
This paper is supported by NNSF project (10371059) of China and Youth Teacher Foundation of Nankai University. 相似文献
28.
Starting with its early twentieth century origins, the development of Labor Economics is traced to the present. We describe
an intellectual revolution in which an earlier tra-dition that focused primarily on the institution of the labor union has
been replaced by a perspective that emphasizes the various roles played by labor markets in an eco-nomic system. That earlier
tradition contained very significant ideological elements, whereas its successor deals much more with the world of ideas.
In the course of the debate, which still continues, ideas triumphed over ideology and created modern Labor Economics. 相似文献
29.
30.
We show that Bayesian ex post aggregation is unstable with respect to refinements. Suppose a group of Bayesians use ex post
aggregation. Since it is a joint problem, each agent's problem is captured by the same model, but probabilities and utilities
may vary. If they analyze the same situation in more detail, their refined analysis should preserve their preferences among
acts. However, ex post aggregation could bring about a preference reversal on the group level. Ex post aggregation thus depends
on how much information is used and may keep oscillating (“flipping”) as one keeps adding more information.
Received: 16 April 2002/Accepted: 27 May 2002 相似文献