Comparative Testing of Experts

We show that a simple “reputation‐style” test can always identify which of two experts is informed about the true distribution. The test presumes no prior knowledge of the true distribution, achieves any desired degree of precision in some fixed finite time, and does not use “counterfactual” predictions. Our analysis capitalizes on a result of Fudenberg and Levine (1992) on the rate of convergence of supermartingales. We use our setup to shed some light on the apparent paradox that a strategically motivated expert can ignorantly pass any test. We point out that this paradox arises because in the single‐expert setting, any mixed strategy for Nature over distributions is reducible to a pure strategy. This eliminates any meaningful sense in which Nature can randomize. Comparative testing reverses the impossibility result because the presence of an expert who knows the realized distribution eliminates the reducibility of Nature's compound lotteries.     

Density zoning and class segregation in U.S. metropolitan areas

Objectives:Socioeconomic segregation rose substantially in U.S. cities during the final decades of the 20th century, and we argue that zoning regulations are an important cause of this increase.Methods. We measure neighborhood economic segregation using the Gini coefficient for neighborhood income inequality and the poor-affluent exposure index. These outcomes are regressed on an index of density zoning developed from the work of Pendall for 50 U.S. metropolitan areas, while controlling for other metropolitan characteristics likely to affect urban housing markets and class segregation.Results. For both 2000 and changes from 1990 to 2000, OLS estimates reveal a strong relationship between density zoning and income segregation, and replication using 2SLS suggests that the relationship is causal. We also show that zoning is associated with higher interjurisdictional inequality.Conclusions. Metropolitan areas with suburbs that restrict the density of residential construction are more segregated on the basis of income than those with more permissive density zoning regimes. This arrangement perpetuates and exacerbates racial and class inequality in the United States.     

The relationship between lack of control and illusory pattern perception among at-risk gamblers and at-risk cannabis users

The link between lack of control and illusory pattern perception in gambling and cannabis use disorders is important to understand because the role of cognitive distortions as etiological risk factors in the development and maintenance of these disorders remains unclear. In this study, undergraduate students are categorized into five severity groups based on gambling and cannabis problem severity and illusory pattern perception variables are assessed following random assignment to two experimental groups: a lack-of-control and baseline group. In the lack-of-control group, a sense of lack of control is experimentally induced, whereas the baseline group serves as a neutral comparison. The results reveal no differences in illusory pattern perception among the severity groups and only partially and weakly replicate the findings of Whitson and Galinsky (2008), whereby relative to the baseline group, participants in the lack-of-control group perceive more illusory patterns in only one of two illusory pattern perception tasks. As an extension of Whitson and Galinsky, we also find that participants in the lack-of-control group detect more real patterns compared to participants in the baseline group in one of two illusory pattern perception tasks. No differences between severity groups are observed in terms of accuracy for identifying both non-real and real patterns.     

When considering vocational rehabilitation: describing and comparing the Swedish and American systems and professions

Rehabilitation of functionally impaired in Sweden and the United States is compared and contrasted. Found is that there are fundamental differences in strategies. The Swedish system most often uses a medically oriented multidisciplinary team approach. The US system most often uses a single individual, the vocational rehabilitation counselor, to work with functionally impaired in helping them return to work. Emphasized is that a vocational rehabilitation counselor uses a unique array of skills that is not duplicated in Sweden by a single profession. Suggested is that a single person with a range of skills can more economically provide vocational rehabilitation services to those with functional impairments; whether this is practical for Sweden is yet to be determined. In contrasting the two systems it was evident that the US system has been in operation for a much longer time and that the Swedish system is maturing. Noted is that the governments of both countries are feeling pressure regarding funding of vocational rehabilitation. This is affecting the level and quality of services. The authors advocate wider contact between Swedish and US university-level training programs in rehabilitation. Felt is that each system has strengths and knowledge that can be used to benefit the other.     

Clinician identified barriers to clinical research

Involvement of front-line clinicians in clinical studies is crucial for quality marriage and family therapy effectiveness research. To identify common barriers to clinical research, 326 clinical members of the American Association for Marital and Family Therapy from three geographically diverse states were asked to describe their willingness to participate in a hypothetical research project. Therapists cited time constraints, outside limitations, client concerns, and a lack of understanding about and involvement in the study as major reasons for refusal to participate. Recommendations for building collaborative relationships between clinicians and researchers as well as future research are addressed.     

‘Race’-education policy as social control?

This paper focuses on the instrumentalist Marxist model which has been used to explain the policies of the British state in the field of ‘race’-education. After discussing the model's core assumptions and its application in this field the paper explores the model's explanatory adequacy through a case study of the role of the quasi-state agencies of the ‘race’-relations industry in developing ‘race’-education policy in initial teacher education. It ends by considering whether a new conceptual framework is needed to understand ‘race’-education policy.     

Reflections on Gender, Knowledge and Values in Social Work

Summary This paper is a discussion of the application of social workknowledge and values in practice. It draws on ethnographic researchin a child-care team in the UK which set out to explore theconstruction of clients as gendered. It is argued that socialworkers' accounts of practice reveal tensions between an emphasison clients as individuals and an emphasis on social collectivity.These tensions could be seen as inherent in social work knowledgeand values. There are various implications of these tensionsbetween the individual and the social, but there is a particularfocus in the paper on the implications for questions of gender.It concludes with some ideas for a theory for practice thatwould better equip social workers for the complex task of negotiatingthe gender tensions raised in the paper.     

Modelling Dependence within Joint Tail Regions

Standard approaches for modelling dependence within joint tail regions are based on extreme value methods which assume max-stability, a particular form of joint tail dependence. We develop joint tail models based on a broader class of dependence structure which provides a natural link between max-stable models and weaker forms of dependence including independence and negative association. This approach overcomes many of the problems that are encountered with standard methods and is the basis for a Poisson process representation that generalizes existing bivariate results. We apply the new techniques to simulated and environmental data, and demonstrate the marked advantage that the new approach offers for joint tail extrapolation.