Confidence Intervals for Univariate Impulse Responses With a Near Unit Root

This article proposes a method for constructing confidence intervals for the impulse response function of a univariate time series with a near unit root. These confidence intervals control coverage, whereas the existing techniques can all have coverage far below the nominal level. I apply the proposed method to several measures of U.S. aggregate output.     

Inferactive data analysis

We describe inferactive data analysis, so-named to denote an interactive approach to data analysis with an emphasis on inference after data analysis. Our approach is a compromise between Tukey's exploratory and confirmatory data analysis allowing also for Bayesian data analysis. We see this as a useful step in concrete providing tools (with statistical guarantees) for current data scientists. The basis of inference we use is (a conditional approach to) selective inference, in particular its randomized form. The relevant reference distributions are constructed from what we call a DAG-DAG—a Data Analysis Generative DAG, and a selective change of variables formula is crucial to any practical implementation of inferactive data analysis via sampling these distributions. We discuss a canonical example of an incomplete cross-validation test statistic to discriminate between black box models, and a real HIV dataset example to illustrate inference after making multiple queries on data.     

Factor Structure and Reliability of the Advantages of Children Scale with Latino and Caucasian Male Emerging Adults

Abstract

Based on the value of children theory, the purpose of this study was to develop and establish the factor structure and internal consistency reliability of the Advantages of Children Scale (ACS), a self-report measure of a modification of Hoffman and Hoffman’s value scheme of the psychological needs children meet for their parents. Data were collected from 685 emerging adult men identifying as Latino or Caucasian who were not parents. Results of the confirmatory factor analysis found a good fit for the six hypothesized subscales on the ACS: connectedness, expansion of self, family heritage, adult status and social identity, development of self, and family maintenance. We discuss potential applications of the measure in research and practice.     

International Adaptation of a Treatment Program for Situational Couple Violence

Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) is a serious international problem. Stith, S. M., McCollum, E. E., and Rosen, K. H. received funding from the US National Institute of Mental Health to develop and test a program for couples experiencing IPV: Domestic Violence Focused Couples Treatment (DVFCT). This article provides an overview of DVFCT, and presents three case studies illustrating how DVFCT has been adapted for use in Colombia, Iran, and Finland. This article emphasizes the need for adapting treatment models to be culturally informed, provides practice-based evidence for DVFCT as a treatment model, and highlights the importance of careful screening and assessment when working with couples who have experienced violence, no matter the country or location where treatment is being conducted.     

Learning to Manage the Multirisk World

Risk assessment, perception, and management tend to focus on one risk at a time. But we live in a multirisk world. This essay in honor of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) and the journal Risk Analysis suggests that we can—and have already begun to—strengthen risk analysis and policy outcomes by moving from a focus on the single to the multiple—multiple stressors, multiple impacts, and multiple decisions. This evolution can improve our abilities to assess actual risks, to confront and weigh risk-risk trade-offs and innovate risk-superior moves, and to build learning into adaptive regulation that adjusts over time. Recognizing the multirisk reality can help us understand complex systems, foresee unintended consequences, design better policy solutions, and learn to improve.     

Subnational Location Capital: The Role of Subnational Institutional Actors and Socio‐spatial Factors on Firm Location

Firms do not simply locate, but rather seek to accrue location‐based advantages such as knowledge, market insidership and resource utilization. Adopting the lens of social capital, this paper explores how subnational institutional actors facilitate location capital for firms. Using qualitative case study analysis of six multinational companies (MNCs), we highlight the important role of subnational institutional actors in fostering three dimensions of subnational location capital – structural, relational and cognitive. We show that subnational location capital, defined as the economic and social assets accessible through relationships within a subnational location, enable firms to derive advantages via subnational engagement. These findings contribute to the growing literature on the dynamic interaction of firms with subnational location, particularly the nuanced role of subnational institutional actors with MNCs.     

Toward Probabilistic Prediction of Flash Flood Human Impacts

This article focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing the integration of physical and social dynamics leading to model forecasts of circumstance‐specific human losses during a flash flood. To reach this objective, a random forest classifier is applied to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators. Here, vehicle‐related circumstance is chosen as the literature indicates that most fatalities from flash flooding fall in this category. A database of flash flood events, with and without human losses from 2001 to 2011 in the United States, is supplemented with other variables describing the storm event, the spatial distribution of the sensitive characteristics of the exposed population, and built environment at the county level. The catastrophic flash floods of May 2015 in the states of Texas and Oklahoma are used as a case study to map the dynamics of the estimated probabilistic human risk on a daily scale. The results indicate the importance of time‐ and space‐dependent human vulnerability and risk assessment for short‐fuse flood events. The need for more systematic human impact data collection is also highlighted to advance impact‐based predictive models for flash flood casualties using machine‐learning approaches in the future.     

Exploring Similarity and Stability of Differentiation in Relationships: A Dyadic Study of Bowen's Theory

Bowen family systems theory (BFST) identifies differentiation of self as a crucial characteristic that relates to one's individual and relational maturity. Bowen theorizes that an individual's level of differentiation typically remains static over time and that individuals select and pair in relationships with others who have similar levels of differentiation. This study aimed to test the hypotheses of BFST by using components of differentiation of self, emotional reactivity, and emotional cutoff, in dyadic structural equation modeling. Specifically, a longitudinal dyadic confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation longitudinal panel model were two analyses utilized to statistically test the dyadic nonindependence and stability of emotional reactivity and emotional cutoff across time. Results indicated mixed support for Bowen's assumptions regarding similarity (nonindependence) and stability. That is, small levels of nonindependence and significant stability paths across time were found. Theoretical implications and considerations for future research are discussed.     

A Circumplex Model of Couple Configurations in Relational Trauma Context: An Example of Practice‐Based Model Development

We propose a circumplex model and typology of patterns of couple engagement to help therapists assess and shape positive couple engagement, prerequisite to successful resolution of relational trauma. View or value of self in relation to other (VSIRO) is conceived as a primary engine organizing couple relationships and patterns of engagement. VSIRO is conceptualized along a continuum anchored at opposite poles by inflated (self‐aggrandizing) versus collapsed (self‐negating) VSIRO, with a balanced (egalitarian) VSIRO as the target position, consisting of self and other mutuality, respect, and equality. Two axes (one for each partner) form the circumplex model of five couple configurations—four quadrants plus a balanced, mid‐axes region. Using couple configuration conceptualization to address patterns of engagement is an essential prerequisite to resolving couple relational trauma.